Doğuş Otomotiv

Doğuş Otomotiv
February, 2009
Agenda
•
Doğuş Group
•
Doğuş Otomotiv
•
Macroeconomic Outlook
•
Automotive Market
•
Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results
•
New Projects
•
Expectations
•
Appendix
2
BANKING
BANKING&&
FINANCIAL
FINANCIAL
SERVICES
SERVICES
• Banking
• Insurance
• Pension Fund
• Leasing
• Factoring
• Securities
• Asset
Management
• Payment
Systems
• Technology
AUTOMOTIVE
AUTOMOTIVE
• Import and
Distribution
(TR&Abroad)
• Production
(Krone,
Meiller)
• Retail and
After Sales
Services
• 2nd Hand
Cars
CONSTRUCTION
CONSTRUCTION
MEDIA
MEDIA
TOURISM
&
LEISURE
• Tourism
Investments
• Infrastructure
• Building
• TV
• Engineering and
Consultancy
• Radio
• Marina
Management
• Magazines
• Luxury Goods
• Ground and
Drilling
• Internet
• Books
• Mobile
Applications
REAL
ESTATE
ENERGY
• REIT
• Production
• Project
Development
• Distribution
• RE Portfolio
Management
• Import/
Export
Retail - fashion &
accessories
• Travel Agency
• Logistics
• Consumer
Finance
• Fleet Rental
• Insurance
3
Agenda
•
Doğuş Group
•
Doğuş Otomotiv
•
Macroeconomic Outlook
•
Automotive Market
•
Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results
•
New Projects
•
Expectations
•
Appendix
4
Presence in Every Stage of Automotive Value Chain
DOAS produces, finances, sells, rents, insures,
services, repairs and inspects
5
Widest Retail & Services Network in Turkey
Approx. 500 customer points, widest among the competitors
(*) DOAS brands, including VW, Audi, Porsche, Scania, Seat, Krone, VW Marine, Scania Marine, Skoda as of end-2008
6
Success Story of DOAS
Bugatti
representative
Partnership with LeasePlan in
fleet rental
Porsche Dealership in
Lausanne
Car park more than 650K units
Krone & Meiller Production
Agreements
TÜV
TURK
IPO
OTO-FIX
Doğuş Group
established
subsidiaries for
distributing VW, Audi
& Porsche
Seat & Skoda
contract signed
(Partnership
with Yūce Oto)
Lamborghini LOI
Krone contract
signed
Bentley LOI
JV in consumer
financing with
VW Financial
Services AG
Scania contract
signed
Meiller Distribution
Thermoking
Distribution
VW Marine
Engines
Used car
operations
established
Merger of automotive
companies under
DOAS
M/S:Market Share
M/S: 12.0%
M/S: 0.5%
M/S: 10.6%
M/S: 5.8%
1993 1994 1995 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000 2001 2002
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
After Dogus Otomotiv became the sole importer and distributor of VW brand vehicles in Turkey, VW7
brands’ market share increased from 0.5% in 1993 to 12% in 2005
Key Strengths of DOAS
Leader in import market in Turkey with 18% m/s among c. 30 pure importers
One-stop shopping concept showroom, after sales services, consumer financing,
insurance
Well-positioned multi-brand products 15 different brands
Creating its own brands DOD, Oto-fix
Youngest fleet in the market with new launches every year, has more than 75 models
Widespread network and customer base, widest network with c.500 customer points
Customer focus, close relations with customers result in loyalty to the brands
Well-equipped IT infrastructure
Advanced financial risk management systems daily monitoring of the FX position
Profit oriented growth strategy profitability always kept without losing market share
9
DOAS’ Position in the Market - 2008
LCV
PV
Passat is the segment leader
VW LCVs are the market leader in imports,
#3 in total market
Golf is #2 in its segment
VW PVs ranked 7th in the market
HCV
Scania is the market leader in import with 9.4% m/s
Krone is the best selling import trailer with 12.0% m/s
Luxury Segment
12 Bentleys, 9 Lamborghinis sold in 2008
Audi is the leader of its segment
Porsche Cayenne is segment leader of gasoline SUV segment
Porsche is the best selling brand of luxury sport
segment
10
Recent Launches
Volkswagen PV
Volkswagen LCV
Audi
Porsche
Seat
Bentley
Lamborghini
Scania
Krone
Tiguan, Passat Coupe, Scirocco, New Golf
Caddy Maxi, Caddy Life, Transporter Sportsline, Caravelle Limited Edition
A4, A4 Avant, A3 Cabrio, A3 (face lift), RS6
Cayenne GTS, 911 GT2, Carrera(facelift), Boxster(facelift), Cayman(facelift)
Altea Freetrack, New Ibiza, Leon (face lift)
Continental Flying Spur, Continental GT/GTC, Arnage T
Gallardo
G series
Cooliner Duoplex
11
Agenda
•
Doğuş Group
•
Doğuş Otomotiv
•
Macroeconomic Outlook
•
Automotive Market
•
Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results
•
New Projects
•
Expectations
•
Appendix
12
Current Macroeconomic Outlook
Structural improvements in Turkish economy (social security reform, tax reform, banking sector
restructuring, independent central bank, increased transparency in fiscal accounts)
Strong net exports and decent demand conditions
Tight fiscal policy (though relatively looser compared to past years)
Relations with IMF to continue
Ongoing disinflation efforts (Annual CPI at 9.50% as of end-Jan’08)
Reforms on EU convergence
C/A deficit at concerning level (currently financable via FDI and portfolio investments)
Net FDI inflow declines
Global credit crunch
Shrinkage in major economies
Increasing risk aversion
13
Annual CPI
Source: TURKSTAT
Source: CBT, ISE
Mar-03
Jun-03
Sep-03
Dec-03
Mar-04
Jun-04
Sep-04
Dec-04
Mar-05
Jun-05
Sep-05
Dec-05
Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Annual PPI
Benchmark Int. Rates (compound, %)
USD/TRY
EUR/TRY
20.0%
14.6%
10.0%
13.9%
8
-08
n-0
9
v-0
8
Ja
No
Se
p
l- 0
y-0
8
8
8
r-0
Ju
Ma
Ma
n-0
v-0
7
Ja
No
7
-07
r-0
Se
p
Ma
6
-06
r-0
Se
p
Ma
5
YoY Inflation (%)
-05
r-0
Se
p
Ma
4
-04
r-0
0%
Se
p
7.90%
Ma
5%
3
10%
-03
9.50%
r-0
15%
Se
p
20%
Ma
M
ay
-0
Se 3
p0
Ja 3
n0
M 4
ay
-0
Se 4
p04
Ja
n0
M 5
ay
-0
Se 5
p05
Ja
n0
M 6
ay
-0
Se 6
p06
Ja
n0
M 7
ay
-0
Se 7
p07
Ja
n0
M 8
ay
-0
Se 8
p0
Ja 8
n09
Macroeconomic Indicators
Nominal Exchange Rates
35%
30%
2.10
2.11
25%
1.90
1.88
1.70
1.50
1.64
1.30
1.10
Source: CBT, Garanti Bank
Basket(0,5USD+0,5EUR)
Benchmark & O/N Interest Rates (%)
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
0.0%
O/N Int. Rates (compound,%)
14
Macroeconomic Indicators
Foreign Trade Volume (US$bn)
FDI Inflows in OECD Countries (US$bn)
2003
230
Exports
2004
2005
2006
2007
Imports
200
202
170
25
20
140
132
110
15
10
80
5
20
0
Mar-03
Jun-03
Sep-03
Dec-03
Mar-04
Jun-04
Sep-04
Dec-04
Mar-05
Jun-05
Sep-05
Dec-05
Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
50
Source: TURKSTAT
Slovak Rep.
Czech
Republic
Poland
Turkey
Mexico
Source: OECD Trends and Recent Developments in FDI Report
Auto Loan Rates (%)
5.00
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Hungary
TRY
EURO
Consumer Confidence Index
100.0
USD
96.2
90.0
2.13
93.9
92.1
92.5
87.6
1.09
0.99
79.9
82.0
80.0
76.2 75.4
70.0
75.0
80.7
74.2
77.0
69.9
-0
8
D
ec
8
ct
-0
O
-0
8
Au
g
n08
Ju
08
Ap
r-
08
-0
7
Fe
b-
O
D
ec
7
60.0
ct
-0
May-03
Jul-03
Sep-03
Nov-03
Jan-04
Mar-04
May-04
Jul-04
Sep-04
Nov-04
Jan-05
Mar-05
May-05
Jul-05
Sep-05
Nov-05
Jan-06
Mar-06
May-06
Jul-06
Sep-06
Nov-06
Jan-07
Mar-07
May-07
Jul-07
Sep-07
Nov-07
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
68.9
Source: VDF
Source: TURKSTAT
15
Agenda
•
Doğuş Group
•
Doğuş Otomotiv
•
Macroeconomic Outlook
•
Automotive Market
•
Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results
•
New Projects
•
Expectations
•
Appendix
16
Turkish Automotive Market Outlook
Huge upside potential in the domestic market...
Approx. 16mn more vehicles need to be sold in Turkey to reach the level of Bulgaria
Vehicle Ownership per 1000 inhabitants (PV+LCV)
818
USA
685
Italy
604
Germany
UK
576
France
575
529
EU Average
510
Greece
391
Poland
361
Bulgaria
138
Turkey
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Source: OSD (2007)
17
Turkish Automotive Market Outlook
Turkish Automotive Market (units)
900,000
725,672
800,000
652,877
700,000
600,000
635,087
503,492 456,272
500,000
2000&2001
Economic crisis
400,000
300,000
Effects of
global crisis
767,443
388,602
323,309
393,888
Russia crisis
200,000
100,000
179,822
618,770
Turbulence in
global markets
July 2007
elections
516,395
300-350,000
172,042
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009E
17% YoY decrease in total market (PV, LCV, HCV) in 2008
18
2008 Market Review
2007
-17%
2008
619K
600,000
-15%
516K
500,000
400,000
-19%
359K
307K
300,000
233K
189K
200,000
100,000
-23%
26K
20K
0
PV
LCV
HCV
TOTAL
2007
Others
22%
2008
Ford
17%
Others
27%
Renault
14%
Renault
15%
Toyota
5%
Toyota
5%
Peugeot
4%
Opel
6%
Hyundai
6%
Ford
15%
Fiat
13%
DOAS
11%
Peugeot
4%
Opel
6% Hyundai
7%
DOAS
11%
Fiat
12%
19
DOAS Sales Performance
WHOLESALES (unit)
Jan'09
Jan'08
YoY
2008
2007
YoY
VW
VW PV
VW LCV
AUDI
PORSCHE
BENTLEY
LAMBORGHINI
SEAT
SKODA
SCANIA
KRONE
MEILLER
1,012
747
265
156
8
0
0
105
100
86
13
2
3,387
1,663
1,724
259
2
3
0
352
278
178
25
10
-70%
-55%
-85%
-40%
300%
-100%
-70%
-64%
-52%
-48%
-80%
40,454
21,485
18,969
5,647
157
12
9
2,874
3,558
1,894
518
184
53,779
26,110
27,669
5,898
218
19
3
3,426
5,291
2,174
811
70
-25%
-18%
-31%
-4%
-28%
-37%
200%
-16%
-33%
-13%
-36%
163%
TOTAL
1,482
4,494
-67%
55,307
71,689
-23%
PV
LCV
HCV
12,215
5,440
521
17,980
12,237
1,355
-32%
-56%
-62%
307,214
188,954
20,227
359,416
232,971
26,383
-15%
-19%
-23%
TOTAL
18,176
31,572
-42%
516,395
618,770
-17%
PV
LCV
HCV
9.1%
4.9%
16.5%
14.2%
14.1%
13.1%
11.0%
10.0%
9.4%
11.4%
11.9%
8.2%
TOTAL
8.1%
14.1%
10.6%
11.4%
Market Size
DOAS Market Share
Source: ADA, DOAS
20
Agenda
•
Doğuş Group
•
Doğuş Otomotiv
•
Macroeconomic Outlook
•
Automotive Market
•
Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results
•
New Projects
•
Expectations
•
Appendix
21
DOAS Headline Figures - I
Vehicle Sales Volume
9M08
9M07
YoY ch.
Unit sales
44,859
45,134
-1%
2nd hand sales
11,019
9,223
19%
P&L (US$ mn)
9M08
9M07
YoY ch.
Revenues
1,422
1,287
10%
189
191
-1%
13.3%
14.8%
-
27
55
-51%
1.9%
4.3%
-
40
65
-39%
2.8%
5.0%
-
(26)
42
-162%
(1.8%)
3.3%
-
Gross Profit
Gross Margin
Operating Profit
Operating Margin
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
Net Profit
Net Margin
22
DOAS Headline Figures - II
BS (US$ mn)
30-Sep-2008
31-Dec-2007
ch.
Total Assets
967
993
-3%
Shareholders' Equity
348
466
-25%
Capital Expenditures
22
88
-75%
Net Cash (Debt)
(95)
(112)
-15%
Net Working Capital
(34)
9
-478%
Receivable Turnover
22
21
5%
Inventory Turnover
73
51
43%
Payable Turnover
85
55
55%
Turnovers (days)
23
Agenda
•
Doğuş Group
•
Doğuş Otomotiv
•
Macroeconomic Outlook
•
Automotive Market
•
Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results
•
New Projects
•
Expectations
•
Appendix
24
Trailer Production with Krone
• Krone is leader of the import market with 45% market share (12% in
total, ranking 4th)
• Expansion of authorized dealership and service network in 2007
• Initial capacity will be 5,000 and increased to 10,000 after 1st year
• 90% of production will be diverted to exports.
• Estimated capex is US$20 mn for 49% share
25
Tipper Production with Meiller
•
Dogus Otomotiv has become the main exclusive importer and distributor of of the
Meiller brand in Turkey in February 2007.
•
As per the Letter of Intent (LoI) signed in October 2007, Dogus Otomotiv and Meiller
formed a joint venture (JV) company
•
The JV is manufacturing Meiller brand tippers and semi-trailer tippers in Turkey.
•
In the newly established JV company Dogus Otomotiv holds 49% stake, while the
remaining 51% is owned by Meiller.
•
The plant has become operational in 1Q08, with 3,000 units annual production
capacity.
•
Almost 80% of the production will be exported.
•
Dogus Otomotiv and Meiller have invested a total EUR10mn for the plant.
26
Porsche Sales in Lausanne
•
Marketing, sales and after-sales retail operations of Porsche in Lausanne,
Switzerland
•
In Switzerland; an important market for Porsche, 1,924 units of Porsche cars sold in
2008 vs 157 in Turkey
•
Establishment of a new showroom in Lausanne will be one of Switzerland’s largest
Porsche outlet
•
Operations will start in 1H09
•
Estimated investment is US$18 mn
27
Agenda
•
Doğuş Group
•
Doğuş Otomotiv
•
Macroeconomic Outlook
•
Automotive Market
•
Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results
•
New Projects
•
Expectations
•
Appendix
28
Expectations
2009E
2008
2007
300-350,000
516,395
618,770
DOAS Market share
12.0%
10.6%
11.4%
DOD 2nd hand car sales
12,000
13,121
13,024
2009E
2008E
2007
1,150
1,600
1,979
Gross Margin
12.0-13.0%
12.0-13.0%
13.8%
Operating Profit Margin
2.75-3.25%
1.0-1.5%
3.4%
2009E
2008
2007
1.50
1.29
1.29
January-December
Total Market (PV,LCV,HCV)
Revenues (US$mn)
Average $/TRY Rate
29
Agenda
•
Doğuş Group
•
Doğuş Otomotiv
•
Macroeconomic Outlook
•
Automotive Market
•
Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results
•
New Projects
•
Expectations
•
Appendix
30
VDF is a hidden value...
2007
New contracts:
Credits Given:
Portfolio:
Market Share:
38,776 units
TRY 968 mn
98,432 units
14% among all financial institutions
2008
New contracts:
Credits Given:
Portfolio:
Market Share:
25,198 units (24% yoy decrease)
TRY 767 mn (21% yoy decrease)
81,141 units (18% yoy decrease)
11% among all financial institutions
Consumer Finance
31
Motor Vehicle Inspection Stations (MVIS)
TUVTURK – a cash cow business of DOAS, Akfen Holding and TÜV SÜD
Right to build & operate MVIS in Turkey for 20 years in exchange of US$552mn.
189 fixed and 38 mobile inspection stations will be built until end-1Q09 with an investment
of US$200mn.
The operations in every region, except Istanbul, will be carried out by the business
associates (BA) for 20 years.
The BAs will share their revenues with the government: 1-3rd years: 30%; 4-10th years:
40% and 11-20th years: 50%
...and with TUVTURK consortium: 1-10th years 7% and 11-20th years: 20%
They will also pay one-time license fees to the consortium totalling US$750mn.
The MVIS business is expected to generate US$15bn revenues in 20 years with US$2.5bn
EBITDA.
32
DOD: Used Car Sales
Almost 100% of the second-hand vehicles sales market is non-organized.
The market is expected to grow exponentially in the coming years, due to increase in consumer
awareness about organized side and much more favorable tax rates compared to new cars.
DOD is the largest organized retailer of the used car business.
The only brand that provides guarantee for the second hand cars which increases the consumer
confidence.
DOD increased its sales volume by 1% YoY to 13,121 vehicles in 2008.
Expected sales volume for 2009 is 12,000 i.e. a 9% YoY decrease over 2008.
DOD Sales Performance
20.000
1%
-9%
16.000
68%
12.000
13.024
13.121
2007
2008
12.000
59%
7.760
8.000
4.881
4.000
0
2005
2006
2009E
33
DOAS Headline Figures - 2007
Vehicle Sales Volume
2006
2007
YoY ch.
Unit sales
76,902
70,808
-8%
2nd hand sales
7,760
13,024
68%
P&L (US$ mn)
2006
2007
YoY ch.
Revenues
1,766
1,979
12%
203
273
35%
11.5%
13.8%
41
68
2.3%
3.4%
49
82
2.8%
4.1%
15
50
0.9%
2.5%
Dividends
5
17
Yield
1.7%
5.5%
Gross Profit
Gross Margin
Operating Profit
Operating Margin
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
Net Profit
Net Margin
67%
67%
225%
240%
34
DOAS Headline Figures - 2007
BS (US$ mn)
2006
2007
YoY ch.
Total Assets
804
993
24%
Shareholders' Equity
340
464
36%
Capital Expenditures
16
88
444%
Net Cash (Debt)
41
(43)
-
Net Working Capital
99
63
-36%
Receivable Turnover
21
21
0%
Inventory Turnover
69
51
-26%
Payable Turnover
79
55
-31%
Turnovers (days)
35
Stock Performance
12.00
1.20
10.00
1.00
1.94
52 wk High (TRY) (28Feb08)
6.83
52 wk Low (TRY) (20Nov08)
1.40
% Price Change 1 Month Ago
9.6%
% Price Change 3 Months Ago
-10.2%
% Price Change 6 Months Ago
-52.7%
% Price Change 1 Year Ago
-66.7%
8.00
0.80
6.00
0.60
0.40
4.00
0.20
2.00
XU-100 Relative
doas (YTL)
0.00
06/04
Closing Price (TRY) (3OJan09)
Mcap (TRYmn) (30Jan09)
213
Mcap (US$mn) (30Jan09)
131
0.00
03/05
12/05
09/06
06/07
03/08
SHAREHOLDERS STRUCTURE
12/08
% Share
Amount (TRY)
DOĞUŞ HOLDİNG A.Ş.
35.21%
38,730,609
DOĞUŞ ARAŞTIRMA GEL. VE MÜŞ. HİZM.A.Ş.
30.29%
33,319,043
0.00%
348
34.50%
37,950,000
100.00%
110,000,000
OTHER DOĞUŞ GROUP COMPANIES
PUBLICLY TRADED
TOTAL
36
Thank You..
Contact
Doğuş Otomotiv
Investor Relations Department
Tel: +90 262 676 90 58
Fax: +90 262 676 90 96
Address: Doğuş Otomotiv Servis ve Ticaret A.Ş. Atatürk Mahallesi,
Anadolu Caddesi, No:22, 41435 Şekerpınar, Çayırova/Kocaeli, TURKEY
E-mail: [email protected]
38
Disclaimer
Dogus Otomotiv Servis ve Ticaret A.S. (the “DOAS”) has prepared this
presentation documents (the “Document”) consisting of documents and
appendixes thereto for the sole purposes of providing information and
projections and statements relating to the DOAS (the “Information”). DOAS
cannot guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of such
information, and cannot be responsible for the results. The Information is
subject to change without any notice. Neither the Document nor the
Information can construe any investment advise, or an offer to buy or sell
DOAS shares. This Document and/or the Information cannot be copied,
disclosed or distributed to any person other than the person to whom the
Document and/or Information delivered or sent by DOAS or who required a
copy of the same from the DOAS. Any and all information contained in this
document are strictly confidential.
39