Turkey Retail Market Overview

Turkey
Retail Market Overview
Avi Alkas
Chariman Turkey
March, 2014
Location, Turkey and Istanbul
• Approximately 1.3 billion consumers within 4 hours flying
time from Istanbul
• Flights to more than 400 international destinations
• 2 hours flight to 22 capitals
1
Population
Population, (millions)
(Million)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014*
2015*
2016*
Turkey
69.39
70.21
71.09
72.05
73.72
74.72
75.63
76.67
77.324
78.152
78.967
Russia
142.2
142
141.9
142.70
142.90
142.41
141.92
141.44
140.96
140.47
139.94
Poland
38.12
38.12
38.15
38.14
38.17
38.53
38.54
38.54
38.55
38.55
38.55
Czech Republic
10.25
10.28
10.38
10.47
10.51
10.49
10.51
10.53
10.55
10.56
10.58
Hungary
10.07
10.06
10.04
10.03
10.01
9.99
9.93
9.91
9.89
9.87
9.85
Germany
82.36
82.26
82.12
81.88
81.76
81.78
81.92
81.75
81.59
81.43
81.26
Romania
21.57
21.55
21.52
21.48
21.45
21.38
21.34
21.30
21.26
21.22
21.17
*Estimates
Source:IMF, World Economic Outlook October 2013
• Turkey, with a population of more than 76 million as of end-2013, is the third most populated country in
Europe after Russia and Germany.
• 33% of Turkey’s population is aged below 20 and the median age is 30.
• IMF estimates that Turkey’s population will increase to approximately 79 million by 2016, approaching
Germany while Russia will experience population declines.
• Recent PWC report projects Turkey’s population to reach 90 million in 2041 and more than half of the
population to be under age 40.
2
Turkey
Economic Outlook
• Turkey is the 6th largest
economy in Europe and
16th in the world.
• Recent research by PWC
envisages Turkey to
become the 12th largest
economy in the world by
2041.
• Impressive growth at
8.9% in 2010 and 8.5% in
2011, amongst top three
fastest growing countries
amongst OECD.
• IMF projections for GDP
growth: 3.5% in 2014.
3
Economic Outlook
GDP per capita
GDP per Capita in Turkey, (USD)
14.000
12.000
7,312
7,006
7,411
7,623
7,976
8,358
Croatia
14,056
13,322
14,021
12,829
13,312
13,921
14,728
15,683
Czech Republic
18,838
18,892
20,603
18,624
18,868
19,236
19,875
20,571
8.000
6.000
Hungary
12,626
12,778
13,916
12,652
13,172
13,872
14,703
15,600
4.000
Poland
11,314
12,309
13,384
12,709
13,334
14,112
14,993
15,888
2.000
Romania
7,649
7,684
8,540
7,939
8,630
8,944
9,460
10,058
Russia
8,568
10,671
13,335
14,302
14,973
15,717
16,951
18,345
Turkey
8,530
10,015
10,477
10,527
10,745
11,011
12,052
13,205
*Estimates
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2013
7.022
12.670
8.559
7.586
5.764
4.559
2003
0
2015*
6,374
11.277
2014*
6,433
9.240
10.818
2013
Bulgaria
10.000
2012
2016*
10.444 10.504
2011
2015*
2010
2014*
10.022
2009
2013*
2008
2012
2007
2011
2006
2010
2005
2009
2004
GDP Per Capita
10.438
11.927
2016*
GDP per Capita Comparison by Country, (USD)
*Estimates
Source: TurkStat, Min. of Development, - Medium Term Programme (2014-2016)
• 25% increase in GDP per capita between 2009-2013 and more than 20% increase is envisaged for 20132016.
• Turkey’s GDP per capita will remain above Romania and Bulgaria.
4
Retailer Demand
International Brands That Entered the Turkish Market
2006-2013
2009
2010
2011
2006
Agent
Provocateur
Bally
BCBG Max Azria
Burberry
2007
2008
Aldo
C Louboutin
Leroy Merlin
H&M
Sephora
D&G
Etro
Corneliani
Marni
Sergio Rossi
Austin Reed
Forever New
Mexx
Cesare Paciotti
Fendi
Chanel
Harvey Nichols
Jimmy Choo
Mandarina Duck
Roberto Cavalli
Fred Perry
Just Cavalli
Guiseppe
Zanotti
Foot Locker
Media Markt
GAP
Banana
Republic
Thomas Pink
Valentino
Haagen Dazs
G-Star Raw
Darty
Electro World
2012
2013
Scotch & Soda
Gymboree
Shake Shack
Rossman
Godiva
David's Bridal
Marc Jacobs
Carl's Jr.
Payless
Carluccio’s
Promod
Carter’s
Magrabi Optical
Eataly
Hard Rock Café
Brioni
Prada
Victoria's Secret
PF Chang’s
Jamie's Italian
Lancel
Decathlon
Kipling
Bath & Body Works
Sunglass Hut
Industrie Denim
Sal. Ferragamo
Best Buy
Beeline
Krispy Kreme
Uterqüe
Kiehl's
Zilli
Hermes
Aéropostale
Paul Café
Bvlgari
Lanvin
Polo
Bijou Brigette
La Durée
Jacadi
Zadig & Voltaire
COS
Ralph Lauren
Anne Klein
Media Saturn
Oleg Cassini
Hummel
Zippy
Pinkberry
Jatomi Fitness
Shana
Nathan’s
G-Star Raw®
Tom’s Kitchen
Fat Burger
Conforoma
Michael Kors
Porsche Design
Superdry
Coffee Shop
Company
Coffee Bean
Tea Leaf
Women’s Secret
®
Riviera Maison
Golden Point®
Brunello
Cucinelli
Brooks Brothers
Emilio Pucci
Stella McCartney
Pomellato
Bobbi Brown
Dean & Deluca
Dunkin Donuts®
CCC
Source: JLL, @ re-entry
5
Retailer Demand
International Brands Planning To Enter the Turkish Market
2014 – 2015
International Brands Left the Turkish Market
Best Buy
Virgin
Bijou Brigette
Orsay
Ordning &
Reda
Disney Store
Kidzania*
Galleries La
Fayette
Cheesecake
Factory
Argo Tea
Austin Reed
Next
River Island
Moe's
Nando's
Desigual
Madame
Tussuads
Boggi
American
Eagle
Seven for
All Mankind
Nordsee
TGI Friday's
Coach
Paul Smith
Cortefiel
Group
Dunkin
Donuts
Hamleys
NatGeo Store
Sushi Samba
Etam
Promod
Conforama
California
Pizza Kitchen
Life with
Cacao
Hollister
Zaatar w Zeit
Source: JLL
Source: JLL
• International retailers demand remained strong even during the crisis.
• Kidzania, H&M, Bvlgari, Victoria’s Secret, Lanvin, Brooks Brothers, and Eataly are few examples for
international chains, which entered the Turkish market over the last few years.
• Expected to enter the market, new international brands such as Hollister, American Eagle, Disney Store
and Madame Tussuads.
6
Existing Shopping Centre Stock and Pipeline H2 2013
Turkey
Overall Summary Europe:
•
•
•
•
•
6.5 million sq m completed during 2013
Total completions in 2013 up 11% on 2012
7.2 million sq m scheduled for 2014
6.9 million sq m scheduled for 2015
44% scheduled in Russia, Turkey for 2014-2015
Source: JLL (January 2014)
Note: Includes schemes >5,000m² GLA only; excludes Retail Warehousing and Factory Outlet Centre.
Pipeline figures should be treated with caution.
7
Existing Shopping Centre Stock Per Capita H2 2013
Average Density: 191 sq m GLA / 1,000 inhabitants
Region Average (GLA / ‘000 inhabitants):
All Countries
East - Europe
West - Europe
191 m²
255 m²
124 m²
Totla GLA m²/ ‘0000 inhabitants
Source: JLL (January 2014)
Note: Includes schemes >5,000m² GLA only; excludes Retail Warehousing and Factory Outlet Centre.
Average density figures based on countries shown on the graph.
8
Shopping Centre Density across Turkey
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Q4 2013
• Istanbul (253 sq m) and Ankara (272 sq m) are the most dense markets.
• There are still some provinces in Turkey without any shopping centres.
9
Major Infrastructure Projects in Istanbul
The Third Bridge, located towards the north of
the FSM Bridge, will be connected to the
Northern Marmara Motorway project
connecting Adapazarı to Tekirdağ. The
motorway project is utmost importance for
trade and logistics. The motorway will be
Habipler
connected to Izmit-Bursa-Izmir motorway.
•
3rd



Bridge
Hacıosman
Başakşehir
FSM Bridge
Olympic Village
Ikitelli OIZ
Bağcılar
TEM Highway
Sabiha Gökçen Airport
3rd Airport (planned)
Avrasya Project (Under Construction)
Marmaray Project
Şişhane-Hacıosman Metro
Habibler – Topkapı Tram
Aksaray-Atatürk Airport
Bağcılar-Kabataş Tram
Kadıköy – Kartal Metro
Kirazlı-Olympic Village-Başakşehir (Under Construction)
Esenler Otogar – Bağcılar Metro (Under Construction)
Üsküdar –Sancaktepe Metro
Esenler
Şişhane
Kirazlı
Kabataş
Halkalı
Ümraniye
Aksaray
Topkapı
E-5 Highway
Sabiha Gökçen Airport
Zeytinburnu
Atatürk Airport
Üsküdar
Sancaktepe
Eminönü
Kadıköy
Göztepe
Sultanbeyli
•
Marmaray project is the most crucial infrastructure project in Istanbul, which was completed in Q4
2013. The project connects the European side to the Asian side via a railway tunnel under the
Bosphorus.
•
This will be complemented by Avrasya project, which is expected to be completed in 2014,
connecting the two sides of the city with a motorway tunnel under the Bosphorus
Source: IBB, Jones Lang LaSalle
Source: IBB, JLL
TEM Highway
E-5 Highway
Kartal
10
Turkey – Retail Market Overview
Istanbul – Spending Power EUR
11
Turkey – Retail Market Overview
ZONE 4
Beylikdüzü
Bahçeşehir
ZONE 1
Levent - Şişli - Beyoğlu
ZONE 3
Yeşilköy - Bakirköy - Merter
ZONE 2
Suadiye - Ataşehir Kadiköy
ZONE 5
Maltepe - Çekmeköy - Kurtköy
Active
20
25
12
2
13
27 26
17
3
28
Pipeline
22
18
24
19
29 21
23
5
39
33
1
38 15
35
16
36
8
10 9
6 7
34
14
31
30
37
32
11
4
1
Marmara Park, 100,000 m2
8 Marmara Forum, 135,000 m2
15 M1 Meydan, 69,000 m2
22 Sapphire, 27,500 m2
29 Çiftçiler , 37,500 m2
36 Emaar Square, 150,000 m2
2
Akbatı, 63,500 m2
9
16 Platform Merter, 27,500 m2
23 Zorlu Center, 66,000 m2
30 Optimum , 46,000 m2
37 Brandium , 60,000 m2
17 Cevahir, 111,000 m2
24 Özdilek, 45,000 m2
31 Palladium , 40,000 m2
11 Aqua Florya, 39,000 m2
18 Kanyon, 39,000 m2
25 Skyland, 70,000 m2
32 Carrour İçerenköy , 45,000 m2
12 Vialand, 110,000 m2
19 Metro City, 51,000 m2
26 Profilo, 49,000 m2
33 Capitol, 29,500 m2
13 Axis Kağıthane, 29,500 m2
20 İstinye Park, 87,000 m2
27 Trump Towers, 43,500 m2
34 Tepe Nautilius, 52,500 m2
21 Akmerkez, 35,000 m2
28 Maslak 42, 19,000 m2
35 Akasya, 80,000 m2
3
4
Mall of İstanbul, 165,000 m2
Hill Town, 76,000 m2
5 Forum Istanbul, 175,000 m2
6
7
Capacity, 50,000 m2
Carousel, 24,500 m2
Galleria, 48,500 m2
10 Ataköy Plus, 25,000 m2
14 Zeytinburnu Marina, 144,000 m2
38 Bu Yaka, 43,000 m2
39 Metrogarden 32,000 m2
12
2016 Q4
Emaar Square
2016 Q1
Vadi IST
2016 Q1
Metropol
2014 Q3
Ozdilek
Q1 2014
2014 Q3
Hilltown
2014 Q1
Akasya
2013 Q4
Zorlu
Turkey – Retail Market Overview
Istanbul – Major Shopping Centers
Upcoming Malls Timeline
13
Turkey – Retail Market Overview
Major Shopping High Streets - Istanbul
City
Street Name
Majority
City
Street Name
Majority
İstanbul
İstiklal Street
Primary
İstanbul
Avcılar Marmara Street
Secondary
İstanbul
Bağdat Street
Primary
İstanbul
Gaziosmanpaşa
Secondary
İstanbul
Abdi İpekçi Street
Primary
İstanbul
Pendik 19 Mayıs
Secondary
İstanbul
Teşvikiye Street
Primary
İstanbul
Beşiktaş Köyiçi Street
Primary
İstanbul
Valikonağı Street
Secondary
İstanbul
Halaskargazi Street
Secondary
İstanbul
Rumeli Street
Secondary
İstanbul
Kartal Kapalı Street
Secondary
İstanbul
Bahariye Street
Primary
İstanbul
İstasyon Street
Primary
İstanbul
Mühürdar Street
Secondary
İstanbul
Göktürk İstanbul Street
Secondary
İstanbul
Alemdağ Street
Primary
14
Turkey – Retail Market Overview
Major Shopping High Streets – Rest of Istanbul
City
Street Name
Majority
City
Street Name
Majority
Ankara
Tunalı Hilmi Street
Primary
Eskişehir
Doktorlar Street
Primary
Ankara
Kızılay Atatürk Street
Primary
Bursa
Atatürk Street
Primary
Ankara
Bahçelievler 7. Street
Primary
Antalya
Gulluk Street
Primary
İzmir
Karşıyaka
Primary
Antalya
Isiklar Street
Primary
İzmir
Alsancak Gül Street
Primary
Adana
Ziya Paşa Boulevard
Primary
İzmir
Kıbrıs Şehitleri Street
Primary
İzmir
Plevne Boulevard
Primary
15
Recent Openings - Zorlu Center
16
Recent Openings - Zorlu Center
17
Recent Openings - Akasya
18
Recent Openings - Akasya
19
Upcoming Projects - Emaar Square
* Expected Opening Date Q4 2016
20
Upcoming Projects - Emaar Square
* Expected Opening Date Q4 2016
21
Upcoming Projects – Özdilek
* Expected Opening Date Q3 2014
22
Upcoming Projects – Vadistanbul
* Expected Opening Date Q1 2016
23
Avi Alkas
Chairman Turkey
İstanbul
+9 (0)212 350 08 00
[email protected]
Thank you
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