Chapter 5

Transkript

Chapter 5

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
ECON 304
•2011-2012, SPRING SEMESTER
Chapter 5: Poverty, Inequality, and
Development
Poverty and Development
YRD.DOÇ.DR. ÖZGÜR ÖMER ERSİN*
*BEYKENT UNIVERSITY- DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS
Room No: 35
Email: [email protected]
Tel: 5146
Some Developments in 20th Century
Economic Development
What can we say about poverty, when we evaluate the
PPF below?
Gıda
D
B
A
C
Makine


1. Efficiency in Production
(Üretimde etkinliğin sağlanabilmesi, eldeki mümkün tüm kaynakların tam ve
maksimum kullanılmasını gerektirir; bu durumda üretim noktası eğri üzerindeki B
noktasıdır.)


Efficiency in allocation
(Dağılımda etkinliğin sağlanabilmesi: üretilmesi istenen mallar arasındaki seçim
sonucunda üretim ile ilgili istenmeyen bir fazlalığın ya da eksikliğin olmaması
anlamına gelir. Şekildeki C noktasında, üretim kapasitesi etkin olduğu halde, çok
fazla miktarda makine üretilip, gıda üretimi yetersiz kalabilmektedir.)


Advancement in productive resources
(Üretken kaynakların hem nicelik hem de nitelik olarak büyümesi/gelişmesi ise,
üretim olanakları eğrisinin, şekilde olduğu gibi dışarıya doğru kayması demektir.
Bu durumda gerçekleşen üretim miktarı, örneğin D noktası gibi bir noktada
olacaktır. Üretim olanakları eğrisinin dışarıya kayması, ya teknik bir ilerleme ya da
girdi olarak kullanılmaya uygun kaynaklardaki artış anlamına gelmektedir.)
Problems with the measurement of
development in LDC’s
 Problems in calculating the total production and income
 Problems in calculating the welfare
 Other problems: Country comparisons, the quality of
national statistics regarding development
5-5
Problems in quality of statistics
Problems in collection of data
Subsistance economy (geçimlik ekonomi)
Kayıtdışı ekonominin varlığı
Human Development Index: Calculation
3 pillars: health, education and income
1. Health
Average life expectancy: 78
Highest achievable target age : 85
Lowest level of targeted age : 25
(78 – 25)/(85-25) = 0.883
2. Education
Adult literacy index : (95.8-0)/(100-0)=0.958
Per capita schooling index : (69-0)/(100-0)=0.69
Total education index : 2/3 (0.958) + 1/3 (0.69) = 0.869
3. GNI INDEX - GSYİH ENDEKSİ
[log (8840) – log (100)]/[log (40.000) – log (100)] = 0.748
HDI = 1/3 (0.883) + 1/3 (0.869) + 1/3 (0.748) = 0.883
Human Development Index (HDI) in 2006; accending order
Kişi Başına Düşen GSYİH
Ülke
ABD $
PPP $
Ülke
ABD $
PPP $
Lüksemburg
65,630
65,340
Hindistan
720
3,460
Norveç
59,590
40,420
Pakistan
690
2,350
İsviçre
54,930
37,080
Kenya
530
1,170
ABD
43,740
41,950
Bangladeş
470
2,090
Japonya
38,980
31,400
Mali
380
1,000
Türkiye
4,710
8,420
Madagaskar
290
880
Tayland
2,750
8,440
Sierra Leona
220
780
Çin
1,740
6,600
Etiopya
160
1,000
Filipinler
1,300
5,300
Malawi
160
650
Endonezya
1,280
3,720
Burundi
100
640
Kaynak:< http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DATASTATISTICS/Resources/GNIPC.pdf>
Ulusal Yoksulluk Sınırı Altında Yaşayanların Toplam
Nüfusa Oranı, %
Ülke
Anket Tarihi
Kırsal
Kentsel
Toplam
Bangladeş
2000
53.0
36.6
49.8
Bolivya
1999
81.7
Kolombiya
1999
7.0
55.0
64.0
Guatemala
2000
74.5
27.1
56.2
Madagaskar
1999
76.7
52.1
71.3
Malawi
1997-1998
66.5
54.9
65.3
Filipinler
1997
56.7
21.5
36.8
Sierra Leona
1989
76.0
53.0
68.9
Etiyopya
1999-2000
45.0
37.0
44.2
Ürdün
1997
Tunus
1995
13.9
3.6
7.6
Mısır
1999-2000
23.3
22.5
16.7
62.7
11.7
Kaynak: Dünya Bankası, World Development Report 2005 A Beter Investment Climate for Everyone,
World Bank-Oxford University Press, 2004
Günlük 1 $’ın Altındaki Yoksulların Toplam Nüfustaki Oranı, %
Ülke
Anket tarihi
Bolivya
1999
14
Etiyopya
1999-2000
26.3
Hindistan
1999-2000
34.7
Malawi
1997-1998
41.7
Mali
1994
72.8
Kaynak: Dünya Bankası, World Development Report 2005 A Beter Investment Climate for Everyone,
World Bank-Oxford University Pres, 2004
Türkiye’de Mutlak Yoksulluk Oranı, %
2002
2003
2004
Kentsel
21.95
22.30
16.57
Kırsal
34.48
37.13
39.97
Toplam
26.96
28.12
25.60
Kaynak: http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreIstatistikTablo.do?istab_id=287
Günde 1$’dan daha az gelirle yaşayan nüfus (%)
Ücret Farklılıkları
En Üst Düzey Yüzde 10’un Ücretinin En Alt Düzeydeki
Yüzde 10’un Ücretine Oranı
1970
1980
1990
-
2.5
2.5
ABD
3.2
3.8
4.5
Fransa
3.7
3.2
3.2
İtalya
-
2.3
2.5
Japonya
-
2.5
2.8
İngiltere
2.5
2.6
3.3
İsveç
2.1
2.0
2.1
Almanya
Environmental Income Inequality
Nüfus
(milyar)
NüfusYüzdesi
GSMH
(milyar $)
GSMH
Yüzdesi
Kişi Başına Gelir, $
2003
2004
2003
2004
2003
2004
2003
2004
2003
2004
I
1.1
1.0
15.6
15.7
25,450
32,245
80.7
80.0
26,510
32,112
II
2.7
3.1
43.8
47.4
5,022
6,863
15.9
17.1
1,860
2,274
III
2.5
2.3
40.6
36.9
1,075
1,187
3.4
2.9
430
507
Toplam
6.16
6.4
100
100
31,647
40,295
100
100
5,120
6,329
I: Yüksek Gelir Grubu Ülkeleri II: Orta Gelir Grubu Ülkeleri III: Düşük Gelir Grubu Ülkeleri
Kaynak: http://devdata.worldbank.org/wdi2006/contents/Section1.htm
Income distribution inequality
Sao Paolo, Brezilya
Basic Needs Approach
What to
produce
?
How to
produce
?
For whom
to be
produced
In what
quantities
?
What will be
the effect of
production?
Some indicators in the “basic needs
approach”
Food: kişi başına kalori ya da protein miktarı
Education: Okur-yazarlık, ilkokul kayıt oranı
Health: Yaşam süresi
Cleanness – Hygiene : Toplumun ne kadarının temiz
koşullarda yaşadığı ile ilgili oran
Water supply and access to drinkable water: Toplumun
ne kadarının tremiz ya da kullanılabilir suya erişiminin olduğu
Residential indicators: oda başına insan sayısı (?)
The Growth Controversy: Seven
Critical Questions
 What is the extent of relative inequality, and how is




this related to the extent of poverty?
Who are the poor?
Who benefits from economic growth?
Does rapid growth necessarily cause greater income
inequality?
Do the poor benefit from growth?
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights
reserved.
5-21
The Growth Controversy: Seven
Critical Questions
 Are high levels of inequality always bad?
 What policies can reduce poverty?
reserved.
5-22
Measuring Inequality and Poverty
 Measuring Inequality
 Size distributions (quintiles, deciles)
 Lorenz curves
 Gini coefficients
 Functional distributions
reserved.
5-23
Table 5.1 Typical Size Distribution of Personal Income in a
Developing Country by Income Shares—Quintiles and Deciles
reserved.
5-24
Figure 5.1 The Lorenz Curve
reserved.
5-25
Figure 5.2 The Greater the Curvature of the Lorenz Line,
the Greater the Relative Degree of Inequality
reserved.
5-26
Figure 5.3 Estimating the Gini Coefficient
reserved.
5-27
Figure 5.4 Four Possible Lorenz Curves
reserved.
5-28
Figure 5.5 Functional Income Distribution in a
Market Economy: An Illustration
reserved.
5-29
 Measuring Absolute Poverty
 Headcount Index
 Headcount Index is defined as the percentage of
population below the poverty line.
5-30
 Total poverty gap
TPG = ∑i =1 (Yp − Yi )
H
Yp : the absolute poverty line ($1.25)
Yi : income of the ith person
H: number of people.
 TPG shows the extent to which the incomes of the poor people
lie below the poverty line.
 It is calculated by adding up the amounts by which each poor
persons income Yi falls below the absolute poverty line Yp.
5-31
Figure 5.6 Measuring the Total
Poverty Gap
reserved.
5-32
 Average poverty gap
TPG
APG =
H
 Where
H is number of persons
 TPG is total poverty gap
reserved.
5-33
 Foster-Greer-Thorbecke measure

 Yp − Yi

∑
Yp
i =1 
Yp: poverty line
1
Pα =
N
H
α



 Yi: income of the i th person
 N: number of people in an economy.
 H: the number of the poor.
 Alpha: determined by government of a country.
reserved.
5-34
Foster-Greer-Thorbecke measure
 The FGT measure corresponds to other measures of poverty for
particular values of alpha. For , alpha=0, the formula reduces to
 which is the Headcount ratio.
 For alpha=1, formula reduces to:
which is the average poverty gap.
 Note: Generally, alpha is taken as 2 by the policy makers. By doing
so, the index combines information on both poverty and income
inequality among the poor.
5-35
The Poverty and Development Indices by
the UNDP: (There are five)
 Human Development Index (HDI)
 The Human Poverty Index (HPI)
 Two versions, HDI-1 and HDI-2.*
 Gender-related Development Index (GDI)
 Gender Empoverment Index (GEM)
*We will focus on these two indices in more detail.
5-36
Source: UNDP
[http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_20072008_Tech_Note_1.pdf]
 1. HDI:
5-37
 2. HPI-1:
 3. HPI-2:
5-38
 4. GDI
5-39
5. GEM:
reserved.
5-40
5-41
reserved.
5-42
5-43
Dualistic development and shifting
Lorenz curves: some stylized
typologies
 Traditional sector enrichment (see Figure 5.7)
 Modern sector enrichment (see Figure 5.8)
 Modern sector enlargement (see Figure 5.9)
reserved.
5-44
Figure 5.7 Improved Income Distribution under the
Traditional-Sector Enrichment Growth Typology
reserved.
5-45
Figure 5.8 Worsened Income Distribution under
the Modern-Sector Enrichment Growth Typology
reserved.
5-46
Figure 5.9 Crossing Lorenz Curves in the ModernSector Enlargement Growth Typology
reserved.
5-47
Poverty, Inequality, and Social
Welfare
 Kuznets’ inverted-U hypothesis
reserved.
5-48
Figure 5.10 The “Inverted-U” Kuznets Curve
reserved.
5-49
Table 5.2 Selected Income Distribution
Estimate
reserved.
5-50
Table 5.3 Income and Inequality in Selected
Countries
5-51
Figure 5.11 Kuznets Curve with Latin
American Countries Identified
reserved.
5-52
Figure 5.12 Plot of Inequality Data for
Selected Countries
reserved.
5-53
Ters-U Kuramı ile ilgili Türk kaynaklı literatür azlığı
Türkçe literatür azlığı
Poverty, Inequality, and Social
Welfare
 Growth and inequality
reserved.
5-56
Figure 5.13 Long-Term Economic Growth and
Income Inequality, 1965-1996
5-57
Figure 5.14 Change in Inequality in Selected
Countries, with or without Growth
reserved.
5-58
Absolute Poverty: Extent and
Magnitude
 Extreme Poverty
 $1-a-day headcount shows some progress
 Incidence of extreme poverty is uneven
reserved.
5-59
Table 5.4 Regional Poverty Incidence, 2004
reserved.
5-60
Table 5.5 Poverty Incidence in Selected
Countries
reserved.
5-61
Table 5.5 Poverty Incidence in Selected
Countries (continued)
reserved.
5-62
Absolute Poverty: Extent and Magnitude
 Growth and poverty
 Impact on per capita growth
 Limited saving and investment by rich in poor countries
 Impact on productivity
 Lack of home demand
 Incentives for public participation in the development
process
reserved.
5-63
Economic Characteristics of
Poverty Groups
 Rural Poverty
 Women and poverty (See chapter 8 for more detail)
 Ethnic minorities, indigenous populations, and
poverty
reserved.
5-64
Table 5.6 Poverty: Rural versus Urban
reserved.
5-65
Table 5.7 Indigenous Poverty in Latin
America
reserved.
5-66
The Range of Policy Options: Some
Basic Considerations
 Areas of intervention
 Altering the functional distribution
 Mitigating the size distribution
 Moderating (reducing) the size distribution at upper
levels
 Moderating (increasing) the size distribution at lower
levels
reserved.
5-67
The Range of Policy Options: Some Basic
Considerations
 Policy options
 Changing relative factor prices
 Progressive redistribution of asset ownership
 Progressive taxation
 Transfer payments and public provision of goods and
services
reserved.
5-68
Tekrarlayalım!
Mutlak yoksulluğun sonuçları
 Büyüme ve Yoksulluk
 K.B. GSMH üzerine etkiler
 Kısıtlı S ve I
 Üretim ve verimlilik üzerine etkiler
 İç talebin yetersizliği
 Kalkınma sürecine katılımın azlığı
5-69
Political approaches
• Müdahale alanları nerelerde toplanabilir?
– Affecting the functional distribution - Fonksiyonel
dağılımın etkilenmesi
– Altering the shares in distribution - Dağılımdaki
payların değiştirilmesi
– Loweing of shares belonging to upper level groups - Üst
seviyelerdeki dağılımdan alınan payların azaltılması
– Increasing the shares of the lower level groups- Düşük
seviyelerdeki payların arttırılması
5-70
Summary and Conclusions: The Need for a
Package of Policies
 Policies to correct factor price distortions
 Policies to change the distribution of assets, power,
and access to education and associated employment
opportunities
 Policies of progressive taxation and directed transfer
payments
 Policies designed to build capabilities and human and
social capital of the poor
reserved.
5-71
“Çevresel” Kuznets Eğrisi
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
GSMH artışı ve çevre kirliliği ilişkisidir. (Bkz. Ekler kısmı.)
The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesizes that the relationship between per
capita income and the use of natural resources and/or the emission of wastes has an inverted
U-shape.
According to this specification, at relatively low levels of income the use of natural resources
and/or the emission of wastes increase with income. Beyond some turning point, the use of the
natural resources and/or the emission of wastes decline with income.
Reasons for this inverted U-shaped relationship are hypothesized to include income-driven
changes in:
(1) the composition of production and/or consumption;
(2) the preference for environmental quality;
(3) institutions that are needed to internalize externalities; and/or
(4) increasing returns to scale associated with pollution abatement.
The term EKC is based on its similarity to the time-series pattern of income inequality
described by Simon Kuznets in 1955. A 1992 World Bank Development Report made the notion
of an EKC popular by suggesting that environmental degradation can be slowed by policies that
protect the environment and promote economic development.
Gelir eşitsizliği ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki
ilişkiden çıkarılan sonuçlar – Türkçe bir özet tekrar



Kalkınma sürecinin ilk aşamalarında görece eşitsizliğin önemli ölçüde arttığı
ancak daha sonraki aşamalarda bunun tersine döndüğü önermesini destekleyen
güçlü bulgular vardır. Söz konusu önerme, ülke sayısını gelişmiş ülkelerle sınırlı
tutsak da, gelişmekte olan ülkeleri de analizin içine katsak da aynı sonucu
vermektedir.
Kalkınma süreci içinde pek çok alt süreç gelir eşitsizliği ile ilgilidir ve aralarında
nedensellik ilişkisi bulunabilir. Bu süreçler, üretim yapısındaki sektörel kaymalar,
eğitime daha fazla katılımın sağlanması veya işgücünün niteliğindeki artış
şeklinde olabilmekte ve özellikle kalkınma sürecinin daha sonraki aşamalarında
görülen görece gelir eşitliğinin sağlanmasında açıklayıcı rol üstlenmektedir.
Gelinen kalkınma düzeyinde, hızlı büyümenin beklenenden daha büyük bir gelir
eşitsizliğine yol açacağı yolundaki önermeyi destekleyen sonuçlara
ulaşılamamaktadır.
Econometric Example 1
 An econometric model applied to Turkish industries
 Aim: testing the environmental Kuznets Curve
 Sample: Turkey and some asian countries
 Çevre kirliliğinin, DYY ve sanayi üretimi aracılığı ile
gelişmiş ülkelerden gelişmekte olan ülkelere
aktarıldığını savunan ve literatürde “kirlilik sığınağı
hipotezi” adı verilen görüş uygulamalı olarak
sınanmıştır.
 Asya ülkeleri ve Türkiye’nin içinde bulunduğu bir
gruba yönelik 1975-2006 dönemini kapsayan bir
model.
 Uygulanan gevşek çevre politikalarında yeni
düzenlemelere gereksinim olduğu göz ardı
edilmemelidir. Bununla birlikte, diğer uygulamalı
çalışmalarla paralellik gösteren iktisadi
parametrelerin işaretleri yorumlandığında, imalat
sanayinde yaratılan katma değer, kişi başına düşen
gayri safi yurt içi hasıla arttıkça, CO2 salınımının
da artmakta olduğu ifade edilebilir.
Example 2:
Shahbaz et.al. (2010)
reserved.
5-78
5-79
5-80
reserved.
5-81
5-82
reserved.
5-83
5-84
reserved.
 Questions:
 What are the explanatory variables?
 Why are they included?
 What are the expected signs of coefficients? Why?
 Why did the researchers choose a log-log model?
 Why is the squared LGDP included to the model?
reserved.
5-86
Long-Run Regression Results:
reserved.
5-87
reserved.
5-88
Granger Causality Tests
5-89
Short-Run Regression Results:
reserved.
5-90
5-91
reserved.
5-92
Case Study: Bangladesh
reserved.
5-93
Concepts for Review
 Absolute poverty
 Factor-price distortions
 Asset ownership
 Factor share distribution
 Character of economic
growth
 Deciles
 Disposable income
 Elasticity of factor
substitution
of income
 Factors of production
 Foster-Greer-Thorbecke
(FGT) index
 Functional distribution
of income
reserved.
5-94
Concepts for Review (cont’d)
 Gini coefficient
 Lorenz curve
 Headcount index
 Neoclassical price-
 Human Poverty Index
 Income inequality
 Indirect taxes
 Kuznets curve
 Land reform
incentive model
 Personal distribution of
income
 Poverty gap
 Progressive income tax
reserved.
5-95
Concepts for Review (cont’d)
 Public consumption
 Quintiles
 Redistribution policies
 Regressive tax
 Size distribution of
income
 Subsidy
 Workfare programs
reserved.
5-96
Appendix 5.1: Appropriate Technology and Employment
Generation: The Price Incentive Model
 Choice of techniques
 Factor Price distortions and appropriate technology
 Possibilities of Labor-Capital substitution
reserved.
5-97
Figure A5.1.1 Choice of Techniques: The Price
Incentive Model
reserved.
5-98
Appendix 5.2: The Ahluwalia-Chenery
Welfare Index
 Constructing poverty-weighted index of social welfare
reserved.
5-99
Table A5.2.1 Income Distribution and Growth in
the Twelve Selected Countries
5-100

Chapter 5

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