türkiye`de odun arz – talep durumu türkiye`de odun arz

Metsä2013 Joint session of the ECE Committee on Forests and the Forest Industry and the FAO European Forestry Commission
Market developments in Turkey
Ramazan BALI
Director of market research section
TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ – TALEP DURUMU
TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ –
Main economic
indicators TALEP DURUMU
and trends
 Turkish economy is the 17th biggest economy
 Economic growth is quite high with 5,1% average GDP growth in last 10 years in spite of adverse effect of global economic crises
 Strong banking system , low budget deficit (0,3 % of GDP) and low public debt (36% of GDP) are strengths
 High payment deficit is the main weakness
 Economic recovery slowdowned, after strong recovery witnessed in 2010 and 2011 by 8.9% and 8.5%
 GDP Growth in 2012 and the first half of 2013 are 2,2% and 3,7%
 Overall picture of construction and furniture sectors look strong
TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ –
TALEP DURUMU
TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ –
TALEP DURUMU
GDP Growth rates
12.0
10.0
9.4
9.2
8.4
8.8
8.0
6.9
Annual GDP Growth rates
6.0
5.3
4.7
3.7
4.0
2.2
2.0
0.7
0.0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
‐2.0
‐4.0
‐4.8
‐6.0
2010
2011
2012
2013Es
TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ –
TALEP DURUMUaccording to TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ –
TALEP DURUMU
Construction
Indicators
construction permits
Despite moderate increase of building number, 300
900
906
Number of building (1000)
802
Floor area (million m2)
Changing construction techniques and multistorey buildings cause less wood usage
Number of dwelling unit (1000)
700
600
200
652
585
179
547
168
504
518
500
152
150
123
330
125
400
106
104
101
139
124
100
102
70
203
107
163
62
79
114
57
50
46
36
77
43
0
600
95
92
103
107
300
200
107
75
50
100
0
Number of dwelling unit
This means taller buildings larger dwellings
250
Number of building and floor area
Dwelling unit number and floor area are increasing rapidly
800
745
TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ –
TALEP DURUMU
TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ – TALEP DURUMU
Furniture sector
 Furniture sector, the most important area for wood products consumption, has been growing fast since 2000
 Rapid growth of the sector thanks to strong domestic demand and dramatic increase of export
1200
Wood furniture export and import volues
1003
Export‐import Value Million $
1000
Export
İmport
765
800
652
600
520
400
290
342
200
255
93
58
53
65
2000
2001
2002
2003
287
276
201
155
135
83 99
517
390
242
215
517
222
251
105
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ –
TALEP DURUMU
TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ –
TALEP DURUMU
Suply
source of industrial
wood
• 76% of demand met by public production
• Most of private production is made from poplar plantation in agricultural land
• Import amount and it’s share are decreasing as a result of taxation and other restrictions
6%
18%
GDF
Private
Import
76%
TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ –
TALEP DURUMU
TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ – TALEP DURUMU
Public forest source
• 9.6 mil. ha allocated for wood production out of 21.7 million ha public forest • Annual increment is quite higher than felling
• There is quite big potential for additional felling
45
42
Total
40
Allocated for production
34
35
30
25
21.7
19
20
19
15
10
9.6
5
0
Forest are mil.
Ha.
İncreament mil.
m³
Felling mil. m³
Round wood
Production mil.
m³
TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ –
TALEP DURUMU
TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ –
Roundwood
production fromTALEP DURUMU
puplic forest
• Satisfying price
• Policy priority of GDF
Ambitious strategic plan targets (20 mil m³ ind. wood and 5,8 mil m³ fuel wood
production in 2017)
17900
14424
18000
16000
14000
11780
• Strong demand by panel industry
20000
12000
10000
8000
7320
Industrial roundwood
production doubled in last decade
6000
4000
2000
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
GDF Ind. Wood production
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Total End. wood counsuption
2012 2013Es.
TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ –
TALEP DURUMU
TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ – TALEP DURUMU
Price trends of wood products $/m3
• Roundwood prices are relatively high
160
Chipswood
Pulpwood
Small sawlog
158
109
120
Constant prices: 2011 (TL/$ : 2,02)
• The price fall in 2013 is mainly caused by oversupply 3rd clas beech sawlog
140
• General trend of prices is flat, • Sawlog price is slightly downward
3rd clas pine sawlog
116
100
104
80
77
67
81
70
60
43
40
20
0
35
Amount (1000 M3)
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
2009…
Şubat
Mart
Nisan
Mayıs
Haziran
Temmuz
Ağustos
Eylül
Ekim
Kasım
Aralık
2010…
Şubat
Mart
Nisan
Mayıs
Haziran
Temmuz
Ağustos
Eylül
Ekim
Kasım
Aralık
2011…
Şubat
Mart
Nisan
Mayıs
Haziran
Temmuz
Ağustos
Eylül
Ekim
Kasım
Aralık
2012…
Şubat
Mart
Nisan
Mayıs
Haziran
Temmuz
Ağustos
Eylül
Ekim
Kasım
Aralık
2013…
Şubat
Mart
Nisan
Mayıs
Haziran
Temmuz
Ağustos
Eylül
Ekim
Kasım
Unsold
Sold
220
200
180
160
140
140
120
120
Price TL.
TALEP DURUMU
Pine sawlogTÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ –
monthly auction sales
and prices
TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ – TALEP DURUMU
Price
240
240
220
200
180
160
TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ –
TALEP DURUMU
TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ – TALEP DURUMU
Wood industry
 Wood industry is composed of too many enterprises (23,830) employ 118,000 worker
 The industry is being consolidating
 The development performance are well over than manufacture industry in terms of turnover, production value and value added  Development performance and potential of wood working industry branches are significantly different from each other  Particle board, fibre board, pallet and other packing equipment production have increased strongly in recent years,
but massive parquet, sawnwood and plywood branches witnessed serious problems
6,900
6,600
6,300
6,000
5,700
5,400
5,100
4,800
4,500
4,200
3,900
3,600
3,300
3,000
2,700
2,400
2,100
1,800
1,500
1,200
900
600
300
0
Particle board
5741
Fibre board
5189
2,384
2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
792
1985
1000 m³/year
Production capacity of particle and fibre
board TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ –
TALEP DURUMU
TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ – TALEP DURUMU
industry
Beside new investments, renovation and capacity expansion continues
apace, especially in fibreboard branch
TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ –
TALEP DURUMU
Particle
and
fibre board production
and
TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ –
TALEP DURUMU
consumption
Production increased paralleling investments
Part. Board comsuption
Fibre board prod.
Fibre board consumption
4,000
3,500
3,000
Amount 1000 m³
The increase of fibreboard
production is more striking, by 500% rise
Particle board prod.
4,500
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ – TALEP DURUMU
TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ –
TALEP DURUMU
Sawnwood
production and consumption
• Sawnwood production showed flat trend between 1993 and 2001
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
soft sawnwood
borial hard sawnwood
tropical hard sawnwood
total consumption
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
0
1994
• Hard sawnwood market seems to contract
7000
1993
• The increase of consumption is more visible
8000
Amount (1000 m³)
• Since 2002, production and
consumption have been increasing depending on increasing pallet and packing equipment demand
9000
TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ –
TALEP DURUMUChapter 44: Wood and TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ – TALEP DURUMU
Trade of wood products
Import
Turkey is net importer of wood products in total.
1620
1575
Export
1428
11561159
Value Million.$
1098
573
510
700
2013Es.
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
303
2006
246
143
200
2005
2004
2003
114
109
230
2002
2001
64
168
2000
69
230
1999
1998
335
329
72
282
76
86
240
1997
287
455
561
535
731
658
791
653
929
1996
Export value is lower
than half of import
Articles of Wood;
TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ – TALEP DURUMU
299
295
232
222
250
147
161
200
112
150
13
50
0
14
39
28
74
100
4
• Chips import rise to 3 million mt. in 2012 from 50 thousands in 2002
Export
0
• Import increase of chips and sawnwood is very sharp
Import
300
Value million $
• but exporter of secondary processed wood products
350
316
• Turkey is net importer of roundwood, sawnwood and plywood
323
TALEP DURUMU
Trade of TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ –
wood products by assortments
TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ –
TALEP DURUMU
TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ – TALEP DURUMU
Trade of wood products
• Import and export balance changed absolutely in last decade
1200
Import
1000
Major reasons are; • Decrease of sawlog
import depending on restrictions • Demand for high quality sawlog
909
953
800
1000 m³
• High cost of domestic production including taxation and transport
Export
626
634
667
664
600
431
400
196
178
200
469
457
236
168 159
100
58
122
44
49
28
39 41
27.5 29
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ – TALEP DURUMU
TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ –
Wood energy
– Woodpulp TALEP DURUMU
production
Wood Energy
 In spite of incentives for energy generation from wood, there is no substantial investment yet
 The competitive and politic strength of panel industry beside
concerns about wood raw material availability are main factors discourage investments
Woodpulp
 Four plants closed in last decade because of insufficient competitiveness and hard global market conditions
 Only one is working with 75 000 mt production
 Paper and paper bord production, consumption and import increase significantly
TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ –
TALEP DURUMU
TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ – TALEP DURUMU
Certification
 Total certificated forest area is 1.8 million hectare and certification process is continuing in another 0.68 million ha forest area
 Felling from certificated forest is 2.4 million m³, equal to 15%of totall felling
 All certifications is by FSC
 National certification scheme (PEFC) is being developed
TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ –
TALEP DURUMU
TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ –
TALEP DURUMU
prospects
of markets
 Considering the increase of construction permits and high performance of furniture sector, slightly market recovery can be expected for 2014, but European market conditions and political instability in middle east will be determining factors
 Capacity expansion of panel industry likely to continue but at lower speed. Possible investment in wood energy and cheaper good import are main threats
 The rapid increase of roundwood production from public forest likely to continue
 Slight price rebound is forecasted in 2014
TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ –
TALEP DURUMU
TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ –
TALEP DURUMU
Conclusion
and prospects
of
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATENTIONS
[email protected]