the status of electricity market liberalization in turkey

Transkript

INOGATE/ERRA Training Programme:
Introduction to the Regulation of Electricity Markets
June 14-16, 2010
Istanbul, Turkey
THE STATUS OF ELECTRICITY
MARKET LIBERALIZATION IN
TURKEY
Fatih Dönmez
Commissioner
EMRA
1
Content
About EMRA
Electricity Market: History and Transition
New age(2001-2009)
Current Status
Case Studies
Future Prospects
Conclusion
2
Fatih Dönmez - EPDK Kurul
Üyesi
About EMRA
3
EMRA
Who is EMRA?
EMRA is the sole regulator of electricity, natural
gas, petroleum and Liquefied Petroleum Gases
Market (LPG) markets in Turkey.
What does EMRA do?
EMRA;
Issues secondary legislation
Grants licenses to market players
Approves tariffs
Monitors, supervises and audits markets and market
players
What are EMRA’s objectives?
EMRA’s main objective is to provide;
Financially viable, stable
and competitive energy
market
4
Üyesi
Sufficient energy at good quality
ORGANIGRAM OF THE ENERGY MARKET REGULATORY AUTHORITY
ENERGY
GY MARKET
ENER
ENERGY
MARKET REGULATORY
REGULATORY BOARD
BOARD
407 personnel in total
PRESIDENT
PRESIDENT
VICE
VICE PRESIDENCY
PRESIDENCY
LEGAL
LEGAL DEPARTMENT
DEPARTMENT
DEPARTMENT
DEPARTMENT OF
OF STRATEGY
STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT
DEVELOPMENT
ELECTRICITY
ELECTRICITY MARKET
MARKET
DEPARTMENT
DEPARTMENT
NATURAL
NATURAL GAS
GAS MARKET
MARKET
DEPARTMENT
DEPARTMENT
DEPARTMENT
DEPARTMENT OF
OF TARIFFS
TARIFFS
DEPARTMENT
DEPARTMENT OF
OF
HUMAN
HUMAN RESOURCES
RESOURCES
AND
AND
FINANCIAL
FINANCIAL AFFAIRS
AFFAIRS
VICE
VICE PRESIDENCY
PRESIDENCY
PETROLEUM
PETROLEUM MARKET
MARKET
DEPARTMENT
DEPARTMENT
PRESIDENTIAL
PRESIDENTIAL ADVISORS
ADVISORS
PRESS
PRESS ADVISORY
ADVISORY
LPG
LPG MARKET
MARKET
DEPARTMENT
DEPARTMENT
DIRECTORATE
DIRECTORATE OF
OF BOARD
BOARD SERVICES
SERVICES
DEPARTMENT
DEPARTMENT OF
OF
APPROPRIATION
APPROPRIATION
DIRECTORATE
DIRECTORATE OF
OF THE
THE PRESIDENT’S
PRESIDENT’S PRIVATE
PRIVATE
SECRETARIAT
SECRETARIAT
SUPERVISION
SUPERVISION AND
AND CONTROL
CONTROL
DEPARTMENT
DEPARTMENT
LIASON
LIASON OFFICE
OFFICE
5
Üyesi
Licensing Process
All market activities must be licensed by EMRA
Separate licenses are required for each market
activity and facility
Separate accounts are required:
for all licensed activities and facilities
for sales to eligible and sales to captive
consumers
for non-market activities
EMRA’s procedure in licensing and share
transfer mechanism is very quick and simple.
Licensees may ask for land appropriation from
EMRA
6
Üyesi
Aims in Electricity Markets
More private sector presence,
Increase in foreign capital investments,
Decrease in public sector investment,
Increasing responsibility in the protection of
environment and the consumers.
Electricity prices to reflect costs in a
competitive environment
Increase in efficiency,
Increase in service and product quality,
Improvement in availability,
Decrease in technical and commercial
7
Üyesi
Electricity Market
History and Transition
8
Ottomans to Turkish Republic
YEAR
1913
1923
THERMAL
HYDRO
17.2
32.7
TOTAL(MW)
0.1
0.1
17.3
32.8
• First electricity generation in Turkey (1902 – Tarsus – Hydro – 2kW)
• 15 September 1902 ( Tarsus – Adana first electricifiation)
•1914 – Istanbul Silahtarağa Coal Plan
•Till 1938 – Osmanli Elektrik Şirketi
(Concessions based on Act dated1910 )
•Hungarian Ganz, Banque de Bruxelles and Banque Generale de Credite
•1 July 1938 – Osmanli Elektrik Şirketi has been nationalized
9
Üyesi
Before 1980s / Municipalities
Until 1970, electricity generation and distribution was
under the control of Municipalities
But this was a problem, since municipalities was not
effectively using this income for investments and
diverting it to other administrative problems
1970 – State owned TEK (Turkish Elektricity
Company) has unified all activities (gen., dist,
transmission)
10
Üyesi
Drivers for Change
High Demand Growth
Treasury’s financial problems
Municipalities lack of intent to divert
electricity incomes for new generation
capacity
Long completion times of new projects
11
Üyesi
Electricification of Turkey
Rapid electrification between (1970-1989)
TEK
Generation
Distribution
Transmission
Also DSI (State Water Works) has big projects
Keban(1974)
Afşin Elbistan A- Lignite (1984)
12
Üyesi
BOT (Build Operate Transfer)
Turgut Özal’s Formula
First BOT - Law 3096 – (1984)
“Assigning Investors other than the Turkish Electricity
Authority (TEK) for Generation, Transmission,
Distribution and Trading of Electricity”
Purchasing guarantees with fixed predetermined
rates. (Treasury guarantee)
13
Üyesi
Failure of the pre 2001 model
Highly critized for costs of and expensive purchasing
guarantees
Accused of incremental effect on electricity prices
Problems due to Constitution
Electricity as a “public service” becomes a matter of
discussion between state institutions
Investments couldn’t match demand increase
14
Üyesi
New Age
(Introducing Regulation:
2001-2009)
15
MILESTONES OF THE TURKISH ELECTRICITY MARKET REFORM
Law No 3096
BOT Law (No 3996)
BOO Law (No 4283)
Electricity Strategy Market Paper
Law (No 4628) First Electricity BSR
Generation Licenses
Start of B&S Market
Establishment of EMRA
Market opening 29 %
16
Second round of Generation Privatizations
Start of distribution Other than privatization residential, all consumers will be eligible to choose its supplier
Üyesi
Main Focus: The Electricity Market
Regulated Activities
Transmission
Distribution
Competitive Activities
Retail Sale
Generation
Retail
Market
Wholesale
Market
Captive
Consumers
Eligible
Consumers
17
After Full Competition
Üyesi
Details of the Electricity Market Structure
The market is based on voluntary bilateral contracts with a
day-ahead & balancing pool
Generators sell
power to traders
and eligible
consumers,
directly or via
pool.
TransCo operates
the balancing
market that allows
buyers to adjust
their schedules by
buying and selling.
The system
imbalance price is
marginal price of
excepted bid and
offer prices.
Suppliers
(Generators, Marketers)
Trans
TransCo bills
network users for
use of the grid
Co
DistCo bills
network users for
use of the grid
Distribution
Utility
Consumers
18
Üyesi
Privatizations and Regions
Başkent : 1.2 milyar $
Sakarya: 600 milyon $
Meram: 440 milyon $
Aras: 128 milyon $
Osmangazi: 485 milyon $
Yeşilırmak: 441.5 milyon $
Çoruh: 227 milyon $
Total: 3.5 billion$
19
Üyesi
Electricity Distribution Region Privatizations by the End of 2009
20
Privatized
Tender concluded
Awaiting tender
Üyesi
Generation Plants to be privatized has a total capacity of 16 GW out of 24 GW owned by state
To be privatized
To be privatized
Large Hydro
Remain state
owned
Total
Small Hydro
Number of
plants
Minimum
Installed
Cap.
Maximum
Installed
Cap.
21
Üyesi
Balancing and Settlement Market
The preparations were ready by 2006
On 1st June 2006, a black out happened
Affected 14 cities in the western part of Turkey
The reason was a shutter however
Electricity prices were not cost based
Some of the Autoproducer generation capacity
(especially Natural gas plants), refused to work at offpeak hours
So there need to be a “pool” which prices reflect the
costs based on demand and supply availability
22
Üyesi
Final – Balancing and Settlement
Market
Until Day-Ahead
Day-Ahead
Intra Day-Real time
System Operation
Electricity Trading
23
Üyesi
Current Status
(2001-2009)
24
Market Overview
25
Electricity and Natural Gas Sectors
“Significant growth in consumption”
Cumulative Growth in Demand (%)
(2000-2007)
Electricity Consumption
Natural Gas Consumption
175
141
140
49
China
OECD Statistics
TURKEY
40
53
India
29
20
World
26
12
EU
9
12
8
OECD average
Üyesi
Electricity Consumption
Non‐OECD
TPES per Capita
Elec.. Cons. per Capita
Turkey
World = 1 OECD‐Europe
OECD
Source: IEA Key World Energy Statistics 2009
27
Üyesi
GDP, Energy and Electricity Growth
Rates
28
Üyesi
Installed Capacity
29
Üyesi
Current Situation in Electricity Market
Installed Capacity
2009
Electricity Generation
2009
194 billion kWh
44.559 MW
Wind
1,7%
Hydro
32,4%
Oil Products
5,3%
Others
Domestic 0,4%
Coal
19,3%
Natural Gas
48,6%
Oil Products
3,4%
Imported Coal
4,3%
Hydro
18,5%
Wind
0,8%
Natural Gas
36,7%
Imported Coal
6,6%
30
Domestic Coal
21,7%
Others
0,4%
Üyesi
Energy Sector
“Main Characteristics”
Rapid growth in demand:
investment challenges and opportunities
the role for competitive markets
High level of import dependency:
further role for development of domestic
resources, in particular the renewables
diversification
Relatively high figures for energy intensity:
potential for improvement of energy efficiency
(but also linked to the structural issues related
to economy)
31
Üyesi
Private Sector Generation
Investments
EMRA granted a total of 821 generation licenses
to construct 37.000 MW of installed capacity.
Between 2003-2009 12.800 MW of new installed
capacity was added to the system.
%55 of the 12.800 MW belongs to private sector.
Between 2010-2013 an additional capacity of
11.000 MW will be added to the system.
32
Üyesi
Electricity Demand Forecast
60.000
400.000
Demand increase rate over 7% p.a.
350.000
50.000
300.000
40.000
30.000
200.000
(GWh)
(MW)
250.000
150.000
20.000
100.000
10.000
50.000
-
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Peak Demand (Actual)
Electricity Demand (Actual)
Peak Demand (High)
Electricity
33Demand (High)
Peak Demand (Low)
Electricity Demand (Low)
Üyesi
Demand & Investment Requirement
800.000
713.901
700.000
600.000
532.102
GWh
500.000
400.000
377.729
300.000
283.523
200.000
100.000
Investment Requirement by 2030
• Generation
180 – 210 billion USD
• Transmission
6 – 7 billion USD
• Distribution
7 – 8 billion USD
0
2010
2015
2020
34
2025
2030
Üyesi
Transmission Network &
Interconnections
2.100 MW
BULGARİSTAN
DIMODICHEV
HABİPLER
ÇAYLI
TES
BABAESKİ
HAMİTABAT
İKİTELLİ
N
NA
Nİ
ST
A
FILIPPI
KAPTAN
1.250 MW
YU
ALİBEYKÖY
A.ALANI
D.PAŞA
AMBARLI
UNIMAR
İÇDAŞ
KARABİGA
İÇDAŞ
BEYKOZ PAŞAKÖY
EREĞLİ
OSMANCA
Z.KÖY
ÜMRANİYE
ADA-GEBZE
TEPEÖREN
ADAPAZARI
ÇAYIRHAN
GÖKÇEKAYA
BURSA
BALIKESİR
TUNÇBİLEK
ÇAN
BOYABAT
AMASRA
Y.TEPE
SOMA
KARGI
SEYİTÖMER
ALTINKAYA
KARABÜK
ÇANKIRI
X
TEMELLİ
BORÇKA
K.KALE
DGKÇ
480 MW
ORDU-2
İAKSU
YUSUFELİ
AĞRI
SİVAS
DEÇEKO
KANGAL
170 MW
BAZARGAN
VAN
KEBAN
KHOY
ELBİSTAN
TATVAN
İRAN
KARAKAYA
MANİSA
YEŞİLHİSAR
KONYA
IŞIKLAR
HİLVAN
YEDİGÖZE
YATAĞAN
ADANA
OYMAPINAR
KEMERKÖY
G.ANTEP
ERZİN
VARSAK
ILISU
SİLOPİ TES DOĞANLI
KIZILTEPE
CİZRE
HAKKARİ
ÇUKURCA
PS3
Ş.URFA
BİRECİK
ERMENEK KAYRAKTEPE
AKSA
BATMAN
ATATÜRK
ANDIRIN
KAVŞAK
SEYDİŞEHİR
ÇETİN
DİYARBAKIR
DENİZLİ
AYDIN
YENİKÖY
110 MW
BABEK
D.BEYAZIT
ERZURUM
ALİAĞA
IĞDI
R
HORASAN
ÖZLÜCE
KAYSERİ
KOCATEPE
UZUNDERE
ERMENİSTAN
KARS
AKINCI
İÇANADOLU
DGKÇ
GÜRSÖĞÜT
GUMRI
DERİNER
ARKUN
KALKANDERE
TİREBOLU
H.UĞURLU
KAYABAŞI
GÜRCİSTAN
HOPA
ARTVİN
HİSAR
GÖLBAŞ
I
BATUM
SAMSUN
TES
CENGİZ
SAN-SEL
TES SAMSUN
DGKÇ
BORASCO
ÇARŞAMBA
BAĞLUM
SİNCAN
240 MW
BLACKSEA
SİNOP
TES
AKFEN
ZAKHO
KESEK
MERSİN
İSKENDERUNİSDEMİR
IRAK
TEİAŞ-APK 2008
TS (PLANLANAN)
HATAY
HALEP
850 MW
MEDITERRANEAN
SURİYE
TS (MEVCUT)
HES (PLANLANAN)
HES (MEVCUT)
TL (MEVCUT)
TL (PLANLANAN)
220 kV EİH
154 kV EİH
35
Üyesi
Tariffs’ Regulation
Activity
Method
Transmission
Revenue Cap
Distribution
Hybrid (Revenue & Price Cap)
Retail
Price Cap
36
Üyesi
Strategy On Electricity
Non-residential consumers will be able to be eligible
consumers by the end of 2011.
Full market opening by the end of 2015 all consumers
will be eligible consumer.
Legal unbundling of Distribution Companies will be
completed by the end of 2012.
Completion of distribution privatization in 2010.
Commencement of generation privatization in 2010.
2023 Vision in Power Sector
Exploitation of known lignite and charcoal reserves
Achieving 30% share for renewables in generation
Full utilization of economical hydroelectric potential
Reaching 20.000 MW wind capacity
37
Üyesi
Commissioning all of geothermal potential (about 600 MW)
Renewable Incentives
Law (nr. 5346) on Supporting Renewable Electricity
Generation
Purchasing guarantee thru a feed in tariff for all renewable
sources: A guaranteed price in TL equivalent to 5 – 5.5
€cent/kWh
Purchasing obligation on retailers according to respective
market share through bilateral contracts
Duration: 10 years
Land appropriation issues: on the lands owned by Forestry
or Treasury: 85% deduction in fees for land usage
Prospects for future
Differentiated pricing among renewable sources: Higher FIT
for solar
Dönmez - EPDK Kurul
38
Differentiated purchasing obligation:
“A renewableFatihpool”
Üyesi
Wind Atlas
39
Üyesi
Geothermal Atlas
40
Üyesi
Solar Atlas
41
41
Üyesi
Renewable Potential
Power Generation
Source
Potential
Under
Construction
Hydro
35,000 MW
6,300 MW
14,617 MW
Wind
48,000 MW
636 MW
912 MW
Solar
32.6 MTOE
-
-
Geothermal
600 MW
20 MW
94 MW
Biomass
10.6 MTOE
13 MW
87 MW
42
In Operation
Üyesi
Case Studies
43
Problem of Low “Licence to
Realization”
Total EMRA Electricity Generation Licences
37.000 MW
For new plants since 2003
However, total generation capacity has grown from
35500MW to 44700 MW (~9000 MW)
6215 MWs of these are from the private sector
However YoY increase in 2009 has been around 3200 MW
Licence trading: Some consultancy companies has received
licences but instead of investing, they are more interested in
trading the licences.
Lack of (equity) capital is a major problem
44
Üyesi
Wind Applications
1 November 2007, EMRA opened application of
Wind plants (New round of applications)
There were around 78000 MW of applicants
However Turkish Transmission Company (TEIAS)
thinks there is only 15000 MW of capacity to handle
wind
Strategy Paper states “20000 MW of Wind by 2023”
The applications to be finalized in 2010 with a round
of biddings for transmission capacity reservations
45
Üyesi
System Operation
(DUY-Balancing and Settlement B&S)
Balancing and Settlement Market has provided a medium
for investors to sell their electricity at higher rates.
For example: Feed-in Tariff for Renewables was 5.5
€cent
Most of the investors achieved no less than 7€cents at
System Marginal Price
B&S
However due to economic crises in 2009 these prices
drop to 5€cents)
46
Üyesi
Generation Privatization
Capacity (MW)
3,677
12 524
148
16 349
Assets

Count
Privatization
Model
Timing
Thermal
18

Hydro
27
Run of River
56
Total
101
Block asset sale of thermal power plants
Transfer of Operation Rights (ToOR) of hydropower plants
Started in 2010
Largest in Europe
47
Üyesi
Distribution Privatization
Figures for
2009

160 billion kWh electricity
distributed

30 million users

%13 technical & nontechnical losees
13
17 14
Distribution
Regions
- Tendering amount 5.1 billion $
- Private companies operating
in 5 regions (21 provinces)
21
15
12
-Privatization tenders
completed for 11 regions
amounting 56 provinces
9
4
6
16
11
19
8
10
5
18
20
Tendered
3
2
Privatized
1
7
To be tendered
48
Üyesi
Privatized Generation and Distribution
Companies
Distribution Privatization
Problems on inspection
Tariff problems
Customer Services
Generation
Very very competitive rounds
Most of the Hydro Plants achieved more than
3000$/kW
Will this affect electricity prices? How?
49
Üyesi
Resistance to Retail Competition
Electricity companies are resisting to
retail competition on the bases of
1.Income distortion
2.Distco: “We need more time”.
Transition period should be longer.
EMRA decreased the eligible
customer limit to 100.000 kWh for
2010
Eligible Customer Limit
Year
kWh
2006
6,000,000
2007
3,000,000
2008
1,200,000
2009
480,000
2010
100,000
50
Üyesi
Current and Planned International High Voltage
Interconnections
BULGARİSTAN
BULGARİSTAN
145 km 1510 MVA
136 km 995 MVA
GÜRCİSTAN
28 km 287 MVA
YUNANİSTAN
260 km 1510 MVA
GÜRCİSTAN
Tiflis
ERMENİSTAN
ERMENİSTAN
80,7 km 574 MVA
NAHÇİVAN
87 km 2x132 MVA
Erivan
IRAN
73 km 204 MWA
100 km 581 MVA
TÜRKİYE
Tebriz
IRAK
YUNANİSTAN
SURİYE
124 km 1005 MVA
400 kV
400 kV Under Construction
220 kV
154 kV
42 km 408 MVA
KKTC
SURİYE
KIBRIS RUM KESİMİ
51
Üyesi
Interconnections with Neighbour
Countries
Electricity Imports from
Georgia
Azerbaijan
Greece
Turkmenistan
Iran (to be started by 2010-2011)
Electricity Exports to
Georgia
Greece
Azerbaijan
Iraq
Syria
In terms of imports Iran is very popular. In exports Iraq is the leading country
Also Turkey is aiming to join UCTE by the end of 2010
52
Üyesi
Consumer Services
There is a regulation for Electricity Consumer
Services
Call center
Reponses to failures
Quality of services
There are still a long way to go in terms of Customer
Services.
With the new amendment to 4628 Electricity Market
Law the metering issues will be clarified (Who owns
the meters? Distco or Customer)
53
Üyesi
Environmental Problems
Not in my backyard!
Hydros in the northwest is very unpopular among
indigenous people
Coal plants are generally a matter of revolt by NGOs
and local people
Nuclear: There is a very powerful resistance
People may be right
Some hydro constructions have been very damaging
The amount of water left for the people has been
recently regulated. (Sustainability)
There are many court orders against constructions
54
Üyesi
Future Prospects
55
New Regime after 2010?
A new amendment is in the Ministry
There are changes
EMRA may be divided into two ( Electricity&Gas vs
Oil)
New Licence regime (Supplier License)
Preliminary Licensing (Two staged Licensing, License
will not be given until the necessary permissions are
fulfilled)
The owner of the meter (Distribution)
Türkiye Elektrik Piyasa İşletim A.Ş – Electricity Market
Operator
Ancillary Services
56
Üyesi
Solar PV Applications
Turkey is one of the leaders in Solar Thermal Panels
There is around 12 million meter2 of panels (For Hot
Water only - Estimated)
Growing interest in PV and CSP
However FIT for all renewables is 5-5.5€cent
Too much interest
Lobbies, pressure groups
Expected to have similar applicant volume as the
wind licence applications under the proposed regime
(if FIT is adjusted to 24 €cent)
57
Üyesi
Smart Grid
There are several demo projects
Still the understanding is “remote
metering”
However, stake holders should be
aware that “Demand Control” is very
important
58
Üyesi
Electric Cars
The oil products’ taxes in Turkey is very high. Previously a
rapid transition to LPG from gasoline has been observed. In
2009, LPG consumption exceeded gasoline for the first time.
Same dynamics may alter the transportation regime
59
Üyesi
Conclusion
Turkey has gone a long way since market reform
But there are many things to be done
Retail competition
More consumer based regulation (such as
vulnerable consumer)
Extending Renewable FIT
New challenges (Smart Grid, microgeneration,
electric cars)
Increasing diversification hence energy security
Energy efficiency and savings to be made
Integration to European Market
More environmental regulation
60
Üyesi
61
Üyesi
www.epdk.gov.tr
62

the status of electricity market liberalization in turkey

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