3_ClimateAtlasStudies

Climatology Division, TSMS
Climate Atlas Studies
 Data were prepared, missing values were estimated, normals were
calculated from 1971-2000 climatic period.
 Other Atlas Studies carried out by the other countries have been
examined. USA, Naderland, Japan, Nordklim Atlas (Finland, İsland,
Norway, Sweden )
 ERA40 reanaliz data have been examined.
 EUMETSAT CMSAF satellite data have been examined.(TOA,SIS,
CFC,HCP)
 Climate assesments of the city have been inserted into atlas.
 Extrem values have been added to the atlas.
 Joint studies have been carried out with Middle East Technical
University and some parameters have been modeled by using
secondary parameters under the ArcGIS by using Co-kriging and GWR
tools.
 Geographic region maps have also been created.
 With above methods 679 maps have been created and ready to deliver
to end-user.
 An interface program has been created with Delphi to show selected
map.
Person and institute interviewed
Person, İnsitute
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Subject
Thomas C. Peterson, NOAA, USA Climate Atlas, PRISM
Finland Met Service,
Nordklim Atlas
Naderland Met Service
KNMI Atlas
JMA, Japan Met. Agency
JRA-25 Atlas
Engin Gem, İnfobiz,
Co-kriging
Doç. Zuhal Akyürek, METU, Co-kriging, GWR
Murat Ataol, Doğa Derneği,
Schreiber
Doç. İhsan Çiçek, A.U. DTCF, Schreiber
Prof. Ersoy Yıldırım, AÜZF,
ANUSPLIN
EUMETSAT,
CM-SAF product
Şenol Tunç, Teknokent,
GEPA Project
ESRI, İŞLEM
Geostatistical analyse, Modeling
builder
Data were prepared, missing values were estimated,
normals were calculated from 1971-2000 climatic period.
Arhive
studies
statistical
processes
USA. Climate Atlas
NOAA, and Oregon State University developed Parameter-regressions on
Independent Slopes Model (PRISM)
Nordklim Atlas
(Finland, İsland, Norway, Sweden )
5 northic countries jointly prepared
Nordklim atlas
They used 5 independed variables to
estimate temperature
 Lapserate
 Mean min elevation of 20km radius
 Distance from sea,
 Latitute
 Longitute
JMA, Japan Meteorology Agency Atlas
Naderland Climate Atlas
ECMWF ERA40 Reanalyse data
ERA40 verileri ile yapılan çalışmada;
ERA40 2m sıcaklığı ile istasyon sıcaklıkları
arasında -9.3 ile 6.4°C arasında farklar
gözlenmiştir. Özellikle dağlık alanlarda
negatif faklar yüksek iken; Doğu
Karadeniz, Erzincan, Tunceli, Diyarbakır,
Iğdır, Adana ve Antalya’da pozitif farkların
yüksek olduğu gözlenmiştir. ERA40 Grid
çözünürlükleri (125x125km) özellikle dağlık
alanlarda Türkiye’yi temsilden uzaktır.
CMSAF (SIS) SOLAR INCOMING SURFACE RADYASYON
COMPARISON OF CMSAF SIS AND IN-SITU DATA
CMSAF (SIS) product values
is greather than in-situ
observation (Actinograph)
ArcGIS infrastructure studies
• 6 maps have been created according to
HGK regulations and one of them was
choised.
• The other layer such as SRTM500, Drop,
Aspect, Slope, Sd-Grid, city, lakes, rivers etc.
Have been prepared to use with original
data.
Base Map
Modeling with Co-kriging
Modeling with GWR
Modeling Temperature with GWR
Modeling of Radiation with Co-kriging
Modeling of Radiation with GWR
RMSE 13.06
Regional maps
Atlas interface
-40%
2008
-13%
- 18%
-26%
-28%
2006
18%
9%
8%8%
2004
-5%
2002
-22%
2000
13%
3% 6%
0%
0%
1998
22%
20%
1996
41%
1994
-8%
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
1960
1958
1956
1954
1952
1950
1948
Ankara Yıllık Toplam Yağış
1992
-14%
1990
- 39%
4%3%
1988
Ankara Yıllık Toplam Yağış Artma Azalma
1986
-2%
-6%
-7%
- 11%- 8% -7%
-13%
-19%
1984
8%
1982
27%
1980
9%
1978
21%
1976
0,40
1974
10%
4%
0% -1%
1972
1970
24%
1968
1966
-35%
-11%
-18%
1964
0,60
1962
-2%
-3% -2% -2% -4%
-2%
-4%
-9%-10%
-10%
-10% -10%
- 14% -18%
-17%
1960
-17% -16%
1958
1%
1956
1954
-32%
-34%
1952
5%
1950
5%
1946
2
1948
1944
1942
1940
1938
1936
1934
1932
1930
1928
y = 0,0071x + 11,491
1946
-0,60
-31%-29%
-0,40 -33%
-33%
-36%
-46%
1944
-2,0
-0,20
1942
0,0
1940
-1,0
0,20
1938
Ankara Ortalama Sıcaklık Sapması - Anomali1971-2000 ort. sıcaklık = 11.6°C
1936
1,0
200
1934
Doğrus al (Ortalam a s ıcaklık)
1932
10
1926
11
1930
12
yağış(mm
)
13
1928
2,0
1971-2000' densapma(%
)
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
R = 0,049
1926
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1992
14
1994
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
1960
1958
1956
1954
1952
1950
1948
1946
1944
1942
1940
1938
1936
1934
1932
1930
1928
1926
Ort. sıcaklık (°C)
Ankara Ortalama Sıcaklık Trendi - D.M.İ.
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
Ortalama s ıcaklık
1964
1962
1960
1958
1956
1954
1952
1950
1948
1946
1944
1942
1940
1938
1936
1934
1932
1930
1928
1926
1971-2000'den sapma (°C)
Climate assesments of the cities
700
y = 0,8425x + 344,46
R2 = 0,0676
600
500
400
300
51%
1971-2000 ort. yağış = 404mm
36%
30%
0,00
14%
-4%
- 8%
-14%
-20%
- 24% -25%
-38%
MAP LİST
MAP LİST
Future works
• Modeling precipitation with smallest (RMSE) and greater
R2
• If R2 is smaller, Model will be improved by additional
parameters.
• Map projection will be converted to Lambert conformal
conic
• Produced maps will carry to ArcGIS Server
• To issue atlas studies on the web
• To issue papers.
[email protected]