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CLIMATIC CHANGES OF GLIDING CONDITIONS
Z. ASLAN
Istanbul Commerce University, Faculty of Engineering and Design,
Department of Computer Engineering, Istanbul, Turkey,
[email protected]
A. TOKGOZLU
Suleyman Demirel University, Faculty of Sciences,
Department of Geography, Isparta, Turkey, [email protected]
ABSTRACT
Thermal potential and climatic effects are examined in Central Anatolia by using longterm meteorological data. This paper presents some analyses of monthly, seasonal and
annual fluctuations of rainfall rate, air temperature, wind speed, wet and dry static
energy and aridity index values for the selected stations in terrestrial part of Turkey.
Climatological data of monthly mean and annual total rainfall rate, mean wind speed,
air temperature and evaporation observed between 1901-2001 were considered.
Temporal and spatial variations of normalized values were analysed. Climatological
changing effects on rainfall, air temperature, wind speed, drought risk, aridity indices,
simple departure index and precipitation concentration index near vicinity of gliding
school were calculated. Rainfall rate, wind speed, aridity, desertification and drought
risk indices, Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), map of dryness risk
class and their effects on thermal potential for gliding have been analysed.
Climatological changing effects on meteorological parameters were considered by
comparing the normal values of parameters recorded between 1930 and 1960 with the
observations between 1901 and 2001. Remotely sensed satellite data were used to select
experimental sites for more detailed analyses. Desertification Risk Index (DRI) and
other normalised data were compared. This paper includes some results of the research
project supported by the Turkish Scientific and Technical Research Centre
(TÜBİTAK).
Keywords: Thermal Potential, Climatological Changing, Aridity and Drought Risk
Indexes, Desertification Risk Index, NOAA-AVHRR.
INTRODUCTION
MATERIAL AND METHODS
Data
Methodology
ANALYSIS
Analysis of Air Temperature
Analysis of Precipitation
Analysis of Aridity
Anlysis of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
Time Series Analysis of Some Climatic Parameters effect on
Gliding in Central Anatolia
CONCLUSION
Acknowledgement
REFERENCES
INTRODUCTION
Many large and meso-scale climate change simulations for the 21st century are based
on concentration of green house gasses, (Giorgi and Francisco, 2000). The role of
regional climate changing on erosivity and aridity factors were investigated by using
some measuring and modelling techniques, Feoli et al., (2000), Turkes (1999).
In scientific researchs that associate the atmospheric water regulation and
environment, and especially archieving and interpreting the rainfall statistics,
meteorological data is very important. Many large and meso-scale climate change
simulations for the 21st centry are based on concentration of greenhosuse gasses.
Ground measuring systems and remote sensing techniques are essential for data
archiving.
Kogan, Forsyth and Carey, studied global drought which is the most damaging
environmental phenomenon. By using Advanced Very High Resolution
Radiometer (AVHRR based Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) and Temperature
Condition Index (TCI) they try to detect water and temperature related
vegetation stress occurring during drought. They showed very strong correlation
between these indices and yield.
Vegetation greenness impacts on maximum and minimum air temperature, and
microclimate has been considered in the analysis of temperature forecasting and
modelling. Vegetation cover needs to be included as a factor in surface
temperature forecasting, numerical modelling, and climate change assessments.
The main aim of this study is:
i)to analyse climatological changing effects on thermal conditions (air
temperature, surface temperature, rainfall rate, relative humidity, cloud base
temperature, equivalent potential temperature, moist static energy) for gliding
activities,
ii)) to define aridity risk,
iii) to define temporal and spatial variation of vegetation cover,
iv)to define transition regions of precipitation concentration index,
v) to define variation of simple climatic deviation index .
For this purposes, some ground measurements of meteorological variables and
remote sensing data have been analysed in time and space domains, Feoli (2000),
Turkeş et all (2002), Reinhardt, (1985), Lindemann (1988), Wallington (1986).
Study Area and Data
Study area covers 49 different stations all over Turkey between 36°N and 420 N parallels.
Total plain area is 779.452 km2. Monthly total rainfall rate and average air temperature
values were considered from 1901 to 2001, New et al, (1999, 2000). Monthly mean wind speed
value between 1999 and 2001 were also analysed. Together with surface measurements,
remote sensing data (NOAA AVHRR, VIS and NIR) for different periods (1986-87, 19942002) have been considered.
Study
StudyArea
Area
Station Number and Height of Stations at Different Geographical Regions in Turkey
STATION
STATION
No
LATITUDE
LONGTITUDE
(geographic coordinates)
34
35
36
37
LATITUDE
LONGTITUDE
(grid coordinates)
Ankara
39.95
32.88
39.82
30.52
37.87
32.50
38.72
35.48
Eskişehir
Konya
Kayseri
HEIGHT
Mean Sea Level
(meter)
40.00
33.00
891
40.00
30.50
787
38.00
32.50
1031
38.50
35.50
1093
As remote sensing satellite data, LANDSAT Thematic Mapper and
NOAA/AVHRR data are used for monitoring land degradation
processes. The characteristics of the data used are given as below.
Satellite
Date
Spatial
Resolution
Spectral
Resolution
Temporal
Resolution
LANDSAT TM
6 December 87
26 April 96
30 m (Optical)
120 m (Thermal)
0.45-2.35
(Optical)
10.4-12.5
(Thermal)
18 days
NOAA/VHRR
96 / 99 / 02
Monthly
Sampling
1 km
0.58-1.10
(Optical)
3.55-12.4
(Thermal)
Daily twice
Methodology
Precipitation Concentration Index
The following statistical indices define, annual precipitation deviations, (Gabriels, 1993,
Michiels ve Gabriels, 1996).
12
m = Σ pi / n
i=1
where, m; annual average precipitation, pi; monthly total precipitation , n; number of months
in a year (12).
Standard deviation of monthly total precipitation:
12
s = Σ (pi – m )2 / n
i=1
To define time variation of monthly precipitation data, Precipitation Concentration
Index, (PCI) values are calculated by following equation:
12
12
12
PCI = 100 . ∑ pi 2 / P2 = 100 . Σ pi 2 / (Σ P)2
i =1
i =1
i=1
Where: pi; monthly total precipitation, P; annual total precipitation, n; number of
months in a year, (Michiels and Gabriels, 1996).
Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) Classes, (Michiels and Gabriels, 1996)
PCI
Seasonal Rainfall
Distribution
< 10
Uniform
11 – 15
Moderate
Seasonal
16 – 20
Seasonal
21 – 50
Strong Seasonal
> 50
Isolated
In seasonal Concentration Index, mean monthly precipitation values were estimated by using
monthly data.
Deviation of annual precipitation values (CV)) is given as below, Michels and Gabriels, (1996).
CV = 100 (S / M )
Where,
S; standard deviation of annual total precipitation.
N
M=∑ P/N
i=1
where;
N; data observation period (year)
Simple Climate Departure Index (SCDI) is given by the following equation:
SCDI = (P – M ) / S
Mean annual total precipitation values have been normalized by using this equation.
Soil Moisture Prediction
Soil moisture over the western Turkey (in Istanbul) basin has been evaluated for long term data
by using De Martonne’s Index (I), (Piervitali, Conte and Colacino, 1999). The index is given by
the following equation:
I = P / (T + 10)
Where
P: total annual precipitation (mm),
T: Mean annual temperature (°C).
De Martonne’s and Soil Dryness Class
Soil Class
Desert, semi desert
D.M. Index
I ≤ 10
Dry, (continuous irrigation is necessary)
10 < I ≤ 15
Semi Humid (irrigation is necessary)
15 < I ≤ 20
Humid, (time adjusted irrigation is necessary)
20 < I ≤ 30
Very Humid, (seasonal irrigation is necessary)
30 < I
Aridity Index
Aridity index (AI) is given by the following equation Türkeş (1999) Aslan and
Tokgözlü (2000a,b),
AI=P/PE
Where
P= Annual total precipitation (mm)
PE= Potential evaporation (mm)
Type of Area
AI
Arid areas
0.05≤AI<0.20
Semi-arid areas
0.20≤AI<0.50
Drysub-humid areas
0.50≤AI<0.65
Normalized Vegetation Index
NDVI is the difference of near infrared (NIR, Channel 2) and visible (VIS, channel 1).
Reflectance values normalized over the sum of channels 1 and 2.
NDVI = (NIR – VIS) / (NIR + VIS) = (CH2-CH1) / (CH2+CH1)
Class numbers change between 1 and 6, corresponding NDVI values change between 0 and
>0.45. Surface characteristics are classified as open sea surface, urban, semi arid-desert, vet
soil, forest, farmland and rainforests.
NDVI Classes and Surface Characteristics
Class
No
NDVI
Surface Characteristics
1
0.01 - 0.05
Urban area, semi - desert
2
0.05 - 0.15
Urbanized area, dry soil, clay surfaces
3
0.15 - 0.25
Humid soil, transition region, bare soil, less
vegetation
4
0.25 - 0.35
Forest, open grass
5
0.35 - 0.45
Forest, farm - lands
6
>0.45
Rain forests, high mountainous area, heavy
vegetation
ANALYSIS OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL
PARAMETERS
Control Chart: VAR00002
777
663
549
VAR00002
UCL = 753,8363
435
Average = 548,9663
LCL = 344,0964
321
1
13
7
25
19
37
31
49
43
61
55
73
67
85
79
97
91
Sigma level: 3
Control chart of Rainfall rate Values in Eskisehir
800
800
700
700
600
600
500
400
500
Eskiþehir
300
Ankara
400
300
VAR00002
200
Kayseri
MA(VAR00002,7,7)
100
Konya
0
,0
97
19 ,00
91
19 ,00
85
19 ,00
79
19 ,00
73
19 ,00
67
19 ,00
61
19 ,00
55
19 ,00
49
19 ,00
43
19 ,00
37
19 ,00
31
19 ,00
25
19 ,00
19
19 ,00
13
19 ,00
07
19 ,00
01
19
0
,0
97
19 1,00
9
19 5,00
8
19 9,00
7
19 3,00
7
19 7,00
6
19 ,00
61
19 5,00
5
19 9,00
4
19 3,00
4
19 7,00
3
19 1,00
3
19 ,00
25
19 ,00
19
19 3,00
1
19 7,00
0
19 1,00
0
19
VAR00001
VAR00001
Time Variation of Annual Total Rainfall Rate
kk(mm) Values (Eskişehir, 1901-2001, Moving
Average for Lag=7).
Time Variation of Annual
Total Rainfall Rate,
(1901-2001)
ESKİŞEHİR (1901-2001)
Rainfall Rate (mm)
1997
1991
1985
1979
1973
1967
1961
1955
1949
1943
1937
1931
1925
1919
1913
1907
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
1901
RAINFALL DEVIATIONS
ESKİŞEHİR
-150
-200
-250
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
SINOP
EDIRNE
ZONGULDAK
KASTAMONU
SAMSUN
ISTANBUL
ADAPAZARI
KOCAELI
BANDIRMA
CANAKKALE
TRABZON
ORDU
GIRESUN
BOLU
ARTVIN
RIZE
KARS
GUMUSHANE
BURSA
BILECIK
ANKARA
ESKISEHIR
BALIKESIR
ERZURUM
SIVAS
ERZINCAN
KUTAHYA
39
AFYON
USAK
MANISA
IZMIR
KAYSERI
ELAZIG
VAN
MALATYA
KONYA
ISPARTA
BURDUR
ANTALYA
SIIRT
DIYARBAKIR
MUGLA
MERSIN
GAZIANTEP
ADANA
URFA
MARDIN
HATAY
36
26
300
29
450
10
11
Monthly Variation of Rainfall Rate Values in
Eskişehir
Time Variation of Annual Total Rainfall Rate
Deviations (mm) from Median Values, (Eskişehir,
1901-2001).
TEKIRDAG
9
Months
YEAR
42
8
32
600
35
38
41
44
N
750
0
100
200
300 KM
Spatial Variation of Rainfall Rate Values in Turkey, (1901-2001)
12
Total Annual Rainfall Rate, (1901-1930)
Annual Rainfall Rate (1961-1990)
Annual Rainfall Rate (1931-1960)
Annual Rainfall Rate (19961-1998)
13
Control Chart: VAR00001
12,13577
12
11,13994
11
10,14412
10
VAR00001
9
UCL = 11,9025
9,14829
VAR00002
Average = 10,1441
8,15247
43
61
55
73
67
85
79
97
91
VAR00001
Sigma level: 3
Time Variation of Air Temperature (°C, moving
average, lag=7) in Eskişehir (1901-2001)
Control Chart for Air Temperature in
Eskişehir
ESKİŞEHİR
2,0
1,0
0,5
1997
1991
1985
1979
1973
1955
1949
1943
1937
1931
1925
1919
-1,0
1913
-0,5
1907
0,0
1901
TEMPERATURE
DEVIATIONS
1,5
1967
31
49
1961
19
37
0
,0
97
19 ,00
91
19 00
,
85
19 ,00
79
19 00
,
73
19 00
,
67
19 00
,
61
19 00
,
55
19 00
,
49
19 ,00
43
19 00
,
37
19 ,00
31
19 00
,
25
1 9 ,0 0
19
19 00
,
13
19 00
,
07
19 ,00
01
7
25
19
13
MA(VAR00002,7,7)
8
LCL = 8,3857
1
-1,5
-2,0
YEAR
Temperature deviations from median values in Eskişehir (19012001)
MAX
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1901-1930
1931-1960
VAN
SIVAS
MALATYA
KONYA
KAYSERI
1991-1998
KARS
ESKISEHIR
ERZURUM
ERZINCAN
ELAZIG
ANKARA
1961-1990
1999-2001
Comparison of maximum air temperature in five terms in Central and Eastern Anatolia
MIN
16
14
12
1901-1930
10
1931-1960
8
1961-1990
6
1991-1998
4
1999-2001
2
0
ANKARA
ELAZIG
ERZINCAN
ERZURUM
ESKISEHIR
KARS
KAYSERI
KONYA
MALATYA
SIVAS
VAN
Comparison of minimum air temperature in five terms in Central and Eastern Anatolia
ANKARA
ESKİŞEHİR
30
1999
2000
2001
30
2002
AIR TEMPERATURE
15
10
5
0
1
12
23
34
45
2000
2001
2002
20
15
10
5
0
-5
1
12
23
34
45
-10
-10
MONTH
MONTH
KONYA
KAYSERİ
1999
2000
2001
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
1
12
23
-10
34
30
2002
45
MEAN AIR TEMPERATURE
30
AIR TEMPERATURE
AIR TEMPERATURE
20
-5
1999
25
25
1999
2000
2001
20
15
10
5
0
-5
1
12
23
-10
MONTH
2002
25
MONTH
34
45
14
12
10
Eskiþehir
Ankara
8
Kayseri
Konya
6
0
,0
97
19 ,00
91
19 ,00
85
19 ,00
79
19 ,00
73
19 ,00
67
19 ,00
61
19 ,00
55
19 ,00
49
19 ,00
43
19 ,00
37
19 ,00
31
19 ,00
25
19 ,00
19
19 ,00
13
19 ,00
07
19 ,00
01
19
VAR00001
Time Variation of Air Temperature, (1901-2001)
MEAN
16
14
12
1901-1930
10
1931-1960
8
1961-1990
6
1991-1998
4
1999-2001
2
0
ANKARA
ELAZIG
ERZINCAN
ERZURUM
ESKISEHIR
KARS
KAYSERI
KONYA
MALATYA
SIVAS
Comparison of mean air temperature values in five terms in Central and
Eastern Anatolia
VAN
STDEV
1,4
1,2
1
0,8
0,6
0,4
0,2
0
1901-1930
1931-1960
Comparison of standard deviations of temperature
values in five terms in Central and Eastern Anatolia
VAN
S IV A S
M ALATYA
1991-1998
KO NYA
KAYSERI
KARS
E S K IS E H IR
ERZURUM
E R Z IN C A N
E L A Z IG
ANKARA
1961-1990
1999-2001
Linear correlation
T
Eskişehir
Ankara
Kayseri
Konya
Eskişehir
1
0.83
0.74
0.93
Ankara
0.83
1
0.89
0.86
Kayseri
0.74
0.89
1
0.86
Konya
0.93
0.86
0.86
1
R
Eskişehir
Ankara
Kayseri
Konya
Eskişehir
1
0.64
0.44
0.44
Ankara
0.64
1
0.61
0.63
Kayseri
0.44
0.61
1
0.66
Konya
0.44
0.63
0.66
1
10
ESKİŞEHİR
8
12
10
8
6
AI
6
4
2
4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Months
2
VAR00002
0
MA(VAR00002,7
0
,0
97 00
19 1, 0
9
19 5,00
8
1979,00
19 3,00
7 0
1967, 0
19 1,00
6 0
1955, 0
19 9,00
4 0
1943, 0
19 7,00
3 0
19 1, 0
3
19 5,00
2
1919,00
19 3,0
1 0
19 7,00
0 0
1901,
19
1901-1930
MEAN (AI)
1931-1960
1961-1990
VAR00001
9
1991-1998
8
1999-2001
7
5
4
3
2
Variation of Aridity Values in
Turkey, (1901-2001)
VAN
SIVAS
KONYA
KAYSERI
KARS
ESKISEHIR
ERZURUM
ERZINCAN
ELAZIG
0
MALATYA
1
ANKARA
Time Variation of Aridity in Eskişehir, (19012001)
AI
6
10
5
8
4
6
3
4
2
1
2
0
,0
97
19 00
,
91
19 0
,0
85
19 00
,
79
19 0
,0
73
19 00
,
67
19 0
,0
61
19 00
,
55
19 0
,0
49
19 00
,
43
19 0
,0
37
19 00
,
31
19 0
,0
25
19 00
,
19
19 0
,0
13
19 0
,0
07
19 00
,
01
19
0
,0
97
19 0
,0
91
19 0
,0
85
19 0
,0
79
19 0
,0
73
19 0
,0
67
19 0
,0
61
19 0
,0
55
19 0
,0
49
19 0
,0
43
19 0
,0
37
19 0
,0
31
19 0
,0
25
19 0
,0
19
19 0
,0
13
19 0
,0
07
19 0
,0
01
19
5
4,0
3
2,5
2
1,5
0
,0
97
19 0
,0
91
19 00
,
85
19 0
,0
79
19 00
,
73
19 0
,0
67
19 00
,
61
19 00
,
55
19 0
,0
49
19 00
,
43
19 0
,0
37
19 00
,
31
19 0
,0
25
19 00
,
19
19 00
,
13
19 0
,0
07
19 00
,
01
19
0
,0
97
19 0
,0
91
19 0
,0
85
19 0
,0
79
19 0
,0
73
19 0
,0
67
19 0
,0
61
19 0
,0
55
19 0
,0
49
19 0
,0
43
19 0
,0
37
19 0
,0
31
19 0
,0
25
19 0
,0
19
19 0
,0
13
19 0
,0
07
19 0
,0
01
19
Annual Variation of AI Values in Konya,
(1901-2001)
Annual Variation of AI Values in Kayseri, (19012001)
MA(VAR00005,7,7)
0
MA(VAR00004,7,7)
0,0
VAR00005
VAR00004
,5
Annual Variation of AI Values in Ankara,
(1901-2001)
Annual Variation of AI Values in
Eskişehir, (1901-2001)
MA(VAR00003,7,7)
0
MA(VAR00002,7,7)
0
VAR00003
VAR00002
VAR00001
VAR00001
3,5
3,0
4
2,0
1,0
1
VAR00001
VAR00001
Linear Correlation
AI
Eskişehir
Ankara
Kayseri
Konya
Eskişehir
1
0.11
0.17
0.52
Ankara
0.11
1
0.55
0.05
Kayseri
0.17
0.55
1
0.06
Konya
0.52
0.05
0.06
1
6.50
6.00
Canakkale
Izmir
Edirne
Tekirdag
5.50
5.00
Istanbul
4.50
Bursa
4.00
3.50
Ankara
Antalya
Sinop
3.00
Konya
2.50
Samsun
2.00
Giresun
Antakya
Gaziantep
Trabzon
1.50
Rize
Artvin
Van
AI, (1901-2001)
1.00
Aridity Index Values
AI
ESKISEHIR
ANKARA
KAYSERI
KONYA
1901-1930
6.4
3.7
3.3
3.7
1931-1960
5.4
3.0
3.4
4.1
1961-1990
8.1
3.4
3.2
3.1
1991-1998
6.1
3.8
2.3
3.9
1999-2001
4.5
3.9
2.3
3.5
40
35
30
25
20
Eskiþehir
Ankara
15
Kayseri
10
Konya
5
0
,0
97
19
0
,0
91
19
0
,0
85
19
0
,0
79
19
0
,0
73
19
0
,0
67
19
0
,0
61
19
0
,0
55
19
0
,0
49
19
0
,0
43
19
0
,0
37
19
0
,0
31
19
0
,0
25
19
0
,0
19
19
0
,0
13
19
0
,0
07
19
0
,0
01
19
VAR00001
Annual Variation of DM Values, (1901-2001)
Linear Correlation
DM
Eskişehir
Ankara
Kayseri
Konya
Eskişehir
1
0.71
0.62
0.50
Ankara
0.71
1
0.69
0.68
Kayseri
0.62
0.69
1
0,75
Konya
0.50
0.68
0.75
1
42
42
SINOP
EDIRNE
ZONGULDAK
SAMSUN
ISTANBUL
TEKIRDAG
ADAPAZARI
KOCAELI
BURSA
CANAKKALE
ADAPAZARI
KOCAELI
SIVAS
ERZINCAN
BURSA
KAYSERI
ESKISEHIR
BALIKESIR
ELAZIG
ERZINCAN
ANTALYA
MERSIN
ELAZIG
VAN
SIIRT
DIYARBAKIR
KONYA
ISPARTA
BURDUR
MARDIN
SANLIURFA
GAZIANTEP
ADANA
KAYSERI
MALATYA
38
SIIRT
DIYARBAKIR
KONYA
ISPARTA
BURDUR
MUGLA
MUGLA
ANTALYA
MERSIN
MARDIN
SANLIURFA
GAZIANTEP
ADANA
HATAY
HATAY
36
36
26
28
30
Kurak
Çöl
0
Yari Nemli
10
15
32
34
38
40
42
Nemli
Oldukca Nemli
20
36
26
44
N
30
200
100
0
42
37.05
26.91
23.44 21.17
35.99
26.91
34.34
29.87
37.02
27.93
38.04
26.37
10
Yari Nemli
15
20
28.92
37.07
27.79
34.66
300 KM
56.16
31.36
38.67
25.40
36.94
29.18
32
34
36
37.94
30
22.18
23.42
23.58
28.04
47.83
22.98
15.49
34.10
27.89
25.07
23.33
17.57
19.10
25.83
28.38
36
38
40
42
44
N
Nemli
Oldukca Nemli
23.36
27.02
25.75
25.20
23.09
18.39
19.89
27.89
30.78
Kurak
200
25.90
38
47.35
23.10
36
Çöl
33.11
28.83
26.90
28.42
24.65
15.38
27.97
30
44
100
0
26.71
31.24
22.62
37.27
28
30
34.40
30.02
40
36.16
20.96
26.32
26.98
26
42
N
39.30
30.63
27.67
38
40
25.54
22.50
26.10
38
26.33
25.08
26.98
28.08
36
Nemli
19.74
26.33
37.59
25.44
20
24.69 22.61
25.69
34
Oldukca Nemli
38.46
25.47
30.56
15
32
27.52
55.42
31.11
34.03
29.87
40
27.80
Yari Nemli
10
42
34.00
30
De Martonne’s Index 1931-1960) , ( (DM) (Piervitali et al, 1999)
25.75
25.12
Kurak
0
300 KM
25.38
20.00
28
Çöl
De Martonne’s Index 1901-1930) , ( (DM) (Piervitali et al, 1999)
0
ERZURUM
SIVAS
AFYON
USAK
MANISA
IZMIR
VAN
MALATYA
38
KARS
ANKARA
KUTAHYA
AFYON
USAK
ARTVIN
RIZE
TRABZON
ORDU
GIRESUN
BILECIK
KUTAHYA
MANISA
IZMIR
SAMSUN
BOLU
GUMUSHANE
CANAKKALE
40
ERZURUM
KASTAMONU
ISTANBUL
TEKIRDAG
BANDIRMA
ANKARA
ESKISEHIR
ZONGULDAK
KARS
BILECIK
BALIKESIR
SINOP
EDIRNE
ARTVIN
RIZE
TRABZON
ORDU
GIRESUN
BOLU
GUMUSHANE
BANDIRMA
40
KASTAMONU
0
100
200
0
26
28
Çöl
Kurak
10
30
Yari Nemli
15
20
32
34
36
38
40
42
Nemli
Oldukca Nemli
N
30
300 KM
0
De Martonne’s Index 1961-1990) , ( (DM) (Piervitali et al, 1999)
44
100
200
De Martonne’s Index 1991-1998) , ( (DM) (Piervitali et al, 1999)
300 KM
42
SINOP
EDIRNE
ZONGULDAK
KASTAMONU
SAMSUN
ISTANBUL
TEKIRDAG
ADAPAZARI
KOCAELI
TRABZON
ORDU
GIRESUN
BOLU
ARTVIN
RIZE
KARS
GUMUSHANE
BURSA
CANAKKALE
40
BILECIK
ANKARA
ESKISEHIR
BALIKESIR
ERZURUM
SIVAS
ERZINCAN
KUTAHYA
AFYON
USAK
MANISA
IZMIR
KAYSERI
ELAZIG
VAN
MALATYA
38
ISPARTA
BURDUR
SIIRT
DIYARBAKIR
KONYA
MUGLA
ANTALYA
MERSIN
MARDIN
SANLIURFA
GAZIANTEP
ADANA
HATAY
36
26
28
Kurak
Çöl
0
10
30
Yari Nemli
15
32
34
38
40
42
44
N
Nemli
Oldukca Nemli
20
36
30
200
100
0
300 KM
De Martonne’s Index 1961-1990) , ( (DM) (Piervitali et al, 1999)
42
SINOP
EDIRNE
ZONGULDAK
ISTANBULG
ADAPAZARI
KOCAELÝ
TEKIRDAG
KASTAMONU
SAMSUN
TRABZON
ORDU
GIRESUN
BOLU
ARTVIN
RÝZE
KARS
GUMUSHANE
BANDIRMA
BURSA
CANAKKALE
BÝLECÝK
ANKARA
ESKISEHIR
BALIKESIR
ERZURUM
SIVAS
ERZINCAN
KUTAHYA
39
USAK
MANISA
IZMIR
AFYON
KAYSERI
ELAZIG
VAN
MALATYA
ISPARTA
BURDUR
SIIRT
DIYARBAKIR
KONYA
MUGLA
ANTALYA
MERSIN
GAZIANTEP
ADANA
URFA
MARDIN
HATAY
36
26
29
Kurak
Çöl
0
10
32
Yari Nemli
15
20
35
38
41
44
Nemli
Oldukca Nemli
N
30
0
100
De Martonne’s Index 1901-1998) , ( (DM) (Piervitali et al, 1999)
200
300 KM
4
3
2
1
0
Eskiþehir
-1
Ankara
-2
Kayseri
-3
Konya
0
,0
97
19 0
,0
91
19 0
,0
85
19 0
,0
79
19 00
,
73
19 0
,0
67
19 0
,0
61
19 0
,0
55
19 00
,
49
19 0
,0
43
19 0
,0
37
19 00
,
31
19 0
,0
25
19 0
,0
19
19 0
,0
13
19 00
,
07
19 0
,0
01
19
VAR00001
Time Variation of SCDI Values, (1901-2001)
SCDI (MEDIAN)
1901-1930
1931-1960
1961-1990
EL
AN
ER AZ
ZI IG
N
ER CA
ZU N
ES R
KI U M
SE
H
IR
KA
KA R S
YS
ER
KO I
M NY
AL A
AT
YA
SI
VA
S
VA
N
A
1991-1998
KA
R
1,2
1
0,8
0,6
0,4
0,2
0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
1999-2001
Linear Correlation
SCDI
Eskişehir
Ankara
Kayseri
Konya
Eskişehir
1
0.65
0.52
0.41
Ankara
0.65
1
0.63
0.62
Kayseri
0.52
0.63
1
0.72
Konya
0.41
0.62
0.72
1
30
25
20
Eskiþehir
15
Ankara
10
Kayseri
Konya
5
0
,0
97
19 0
,0
91
19 0
,0
85
19 0
,0
79
19 0
,0
73
19 0
,0
67
19 0
,0
61
19 0
,0
55
19 0
,0
49
19 0
,0
43
19 0
,0
37
19 0
,0
31
19 0
,0
25
19 0
,0
19
19 0
,0
13
19 0
,0
07
19 0
,0
01
19
VAR00001
Annual Variation of PCI Values, (1901-2001)
VA
N
AN
KA
R
EL A
ER AZ
ZI IG
N
ER C A
ZU N
ES R
KI UM
SE
H
IR
KA
KA RS
YS
ER
KO I
M NY
AL A
AT
YA
SI
VA
S
PCI (MEDIAN)
20
15
10
1901-1930
5
1931-1960
1961-1990
0
1991-1998
1999-2001
Linear Correlation
PCI
Eskişehir
Ankara
Kayseri
Konya
Eskişehir
1
0.6
0.6
0.56
Ankara
0.6
1
0.57
0.68
Kayseri
0.6
0.57
1
0.64
Konya
0.56
0.68
0.64
1
42
SINOP
EDIRNE
ZONGULDAK
ISTANBULG
ADAPAZARI
KOCAELÝ
TEKIRDAG
BANDIRMA
CANAKKALE
KASTAMONU
SAMSUN
TRABZON
ORDU
GIRESUN
BOLU
ARTVIN
RÝZE
KARS
GUMUSHANE
BURSA
BÝLECÝK
ANKARA
ESKISEHIR
BALIKESIR
ERZURUM
SIVAS
ERZINCAN
KUTAHYA
39
USAK
MANISA
IZMIR
AFYON
KAYSERI
ELAZIG
VAN
MALATYA
ISPARTA
BURDUR
MUGLA
ANTALYA
SIIRT
DIYARBAKIR
KONYA
MERSIN
GAZIANTEP
ADANA
MARDIN
URFA
HATAY
36
26
Uniform
0
29
32
Orta Mevsimsel Mevsimsel
10
15
20
35
38
41
44
Ayrik
Kuvvetli Mevsimsel
N
50
0
100
200
300 KM
(PCI) Indexes (Michielsand Gabriels, 1996), 1901-2001
42
SINOP
EDIRNE
ZONGULDAK
KASTAMONU
SAMSUN
ISTANBUL
TEKIRDAG
ADAPAZARI
KOCAELI
TRABZON
ORDU
GIRESUN
BOLU
ARTVIN
RIZE
KARS
GUMUSHANE
BURSA
CANAKKALE
40
BILECIK
ANKARA
ESKISEHIR
BALIKESIR
ERZURUM
SIVAS
ERZINCAN
KUTAHYA
USAK
MANISA
IZMIR
AFYON
KAYSERI
ELAZIG
VAN
MALATYA
38
ISPARTA
BURDUR
SIIRT
DIYARBAKIR
KONYA
MUGLA
ANTALYA
MERSIN
GAZIANTEP
ADANA
MARDIN
SANLIURFA
HATAY
36
26
Uniform
0
28
30
Orta Mevsimsel Mevsimsel
10
15
20
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
Ayrik
Kuvvetli Mevsimsel
N
50
0
(PCI) Indexes (Michielsand Gabriels, 1996), 1998-2001
100
200
300 KM
NDVI ANALYSIS
10.04.2001
10.10.2001
10.04.2002
10.10.2002
10.10.2000
10.04.2001
10.10.2001
10.04.2002
10.10.2002
10.10.1999
10.04.2000
10.10.2000
NDVI
10.04.2000
10.10.1999
10.04.1999
10.10.1998
10.04.1998
10.10.1997
10.10.1997
10.04.1998
10.10.1998
10.04.1999
10.10.1999
10.04.2000
10.10.2000
10.04.2001
10.10.2001
10.04.2002
10.10.2002
10.04.1997
-0,1
0,1
0,5
0,5
10.04.1999
0,7
10.10.1998
0,7
10.04.1998
0,9
10.10.1997
10.08.2002
10.04.2002
10.12.2001
10.08.2001
10.04.2001
10.12.2000
10.08.2000
10.04.2000
10.12.1999
10.08.1999
10.04.1999
10.12.1998
10.08.1998
10.04.1997
YEAR
KONYA
KAYSERİ
YEAR
-0,3
10.04.1998
10.12.1997
-0,1
YEAR
10.08.1997
0,9
10.04.1997
-0,1
0,1
0,3
0,1
0,3
NDVI
0,1
0,3
NDVI
0,3
NDVI
0,7
0,7
0,5
0,5
YEAR
10.04.1997
-0,1
ANKARA
ESKİŞEHİR
0,9
0,9
-0,1
21.10.2000
21.09.2000
21.08.2000
21.07.2000
21.06.2000
21.05.2000
21.04.2000
21.03.2000
21.02.2000
21.01.2000
NDVI
NDVI (2000)
0,5
0,4
0,3
0,2
0,1
0
Eskişehir
Ankara
Kayseri
Konya
MONTH
0,9
0,8
0,7
0,6
0,5
0,4
0,3
0,2
0,1
0
Eskişehir
Ankara
Kayseri
10.05.2002
10.02.2002
10.11.2001
10.08.2001
10.05.2001
10.02.2001
10.11.2000
10.08.2000
Konya
10.05.2000
NDVI
NDVI (2000-2002)
MONTH
CENT RAL ANAT OLIA (AI-NDVI)
0,5
AI, NDVI
0,4
0,3
AI
0,2
NDVI
0,1
0
Ankara
Konya
Kayseri
STATION
Afyon
Eskişehir
0
-1
ARTVIN
TRABZON
GIRESUN
SAMSUN
SINOP
ZONGULDAK
KASTAMONU
BOLU
GUMUSHANE
RİZE
ORDU
ISTANBULG
EDIRNE
TEKIRDAG
BİLECİK
KOCAELİ
BANDIRMA
CANAKKALE
BALIKESIR
BURSA
ADAPAZARI
IZMIR
MANISA
MUGLA
AFYON
KUTAHYA
USAK
ISPARTA
BURDUR
ANTALYA
MERSIN
ADANA
HATAY
ANKARA
ESKISEHIR
KONYA
KAYSERI
SIVAS
ERZURUM
ERZINCAN
ELAZIG
MALATYA
VAN
SIIRT
KARS
URFA
DIYARBAKIR
GAZIANTEP
MARDIN
NDVI
6
5
15.11.2000
05.10.2000
4
3
03.09.2000
14.08.2000
07.08.2000
29.07.2000
08.07.2000
13.06.2000
2
1
10.05.2000
06.04.2000
15.03.2000
14.03.2000
02.03.2000
STATIONS
08.02.2000
21.01.2000
Variation of NDVI Values in 1987
Variation of NDVI Values in 1988
Spatial variation of NDVI values in 1995
29-04-2001 NDVI
SÝNOP
42
EDÝRNE
ZONGULDAK
ÝSTANBULG
ADAPAZARI
KOCAELÝ
TEKÝRDAÐ
BANDIRMA
ÇANAKKALE
KASTAMONU
SAMSUN
TRABZON
ORDU
GÝRESUN
BOLU
ARTVÝN
RÝZE
KARS
GÜMÜÞHANE
BURSA
BÝLECÝK
ANKARA
ESKÝÞEHIÝR
BALIKESÝR
ERZURUM
SÝVAS
ERZÝNCAN
KÜTAHYA
39
UÞAK
MANÝSA
ÝZMÝR
AFYON
KAYSERÝ
ELAZIÐ
VAN
MALATYA
MUÐLA
ANTALYA
SÝÝRT
DÝYARBAKIR
KONYA
ISPARTA
BURDUR
MERSÝN
GAZÝANTEP
ADANA
URFA
MARDÝN
HATAY
36
26
2.SINIF
0.12
0.15
29
3.SINIF
32
5.SINIF
4.SINIF
0.25
35
0.35
6.SINIF
0.45
38
41
44
N
TV
IN
Station
R
F
T
A
S
IIR
U
I
G
SE
R
EL
A
ZI
K
AY
A
TA
KA
R
IS
PA
R
AN
A
S
IN
Y
IS
A
TA
H
M
E
R
K
U
M
AN
SA
M
S
K
U
AS
N
TA
M
O
N
U
BU
R
C
S
A
A
N
A
KK
AL
E
AR
NDVI
NDVI
0,40
0,30
0,20
0,10
0,00
1987
1988
AR
T
SA VIN
M
SU
KA N
S.
..
BU
R
C SA
AN
...
M
AN
KU ISA
T.
..
M
ER
SI
IS
N
PA
R
AN TA
KA
KA RA
YS
ER
EL I
AZ
IG
U
R
FA
SI
IR
T
NDVI
NDVI
0,40
0,30
0,20
0,10
0,00
1987
1995
Station
ANALYSIS OF CLIMATIC
PARAMETERS EFFECTS ON
GLIDING
19
18
17
16
15
VAR00003
14
MA(VAR00003,7,7)
13
0
,0
97
19 00
,
91
19 00
,
85
19 00
,
79
19 00
,
73
19 00
,
67
19 00
,
61
19 00
,
55
19 00
,
49
19 00
,
43
19 00
,
37
19 00
,
31
19 00
,
25
19 00
,
19
19 00
,
13
19 00
,
07
19 00
,
01
19
VAR00001
Time Variation of Surface Temperature in Eskişehir, (1901-2001)
20
10
0
VAR00005
MA(VAR00005,7,7)
-10
0
,0
97
19 ,00
91
19 ,00
85
19 00
,
79
19 ,00
73
19 ,00
67
19 ,00
61
19 00
,
55
19 ,00
49
19 ,00
43
19 ,00
37
19 00
,
31
19 ,00
25
19 ,00
19
19 ,00
13
19 00
,
07
19 ,00
01
19
VAR00001
Time Variation of Condensation Level-Air Temperature in Eskişehir, (1901-2001)
40
30
20
VAR00006
MA(VAR00006,7,7)
10
0
,0
97
19 ,00
91
19 ,00
85
19 ,00
79
19 ,00
73
19 ,00
67
19 ,00
61
19 ,00
55
19 ,00
49
19 ,00
43
19 ,00
37
19 ,00
31
19 ,00
25
19 ,00
19
19 ,00
13
19 ,00
07
19 ,00
01
19
VAR00001
Time Variation of Equivalent Potential Temperature in Eskişehir, (1901-2001)
1,1
1,0
,9
,8
,7
,6
,5
VAR00002
,4
MA(VAR00002,7,7)
0
,0
97 0
19 1,0
9 0
19 5,0
8
19 ,00
79 0
19 3,0
7 0
19 7,0
6
19 ,00
61 0
19 5,0
5 0
19 9,0
4
19 ,00
43 0
19 7,0
3 0
19 1,0
3
19 ,00
25 0
19 9,0
1 0
19 3,0
1
19 ,00
07 0
19 1,0
0
19
VAR00001
Time Variation of Relative Humidity in Eskişehir, (1901-2001)
360000
350000
340000
330000
320000
310000
300000
VAR00002
290000
MA(VAR00002,7,7)
0
,0
97 0
19 1,0
9 0
19 5,0
8 0
19 9,0
7 0
19 3,0
7 0
19 7,0
6 0
19 1,0
6 0
19 5,0
5 0
19 9,0
4 0
19 3,0
4 0
19 7,0
3 0
19 1,0
3 0
19 5,0
2 0
19 9,0
1 0
19 3,0
1 0
19 7,0
0 0
19 1,0
0
19
VAR00001
Time Variation of Moist Static Energy in Eskişehir, (H, 1901-2001)
40000
30000
20000
10000
-20000
YEAR
Moist Static Energy, Eskişehir
99
92
85
78
71
64
57
50
43
36
29
22
15
-10000
8
0
1
M O IS T S TATIC E NE RG Y
ESKİŞEHİR (DEVIATION)
T C L ,T E T A ,T S
-5
-10
1901
1908
1915
1922
1929
1936
1943
1950
1957
1964
1971
1978
1985
1992
1999
DEVIATIONS (Eskişehir)
20
15
10
5
TCL
0
TETA
-15
Year
TS
RESULTS AND CONCLUSION
Analysis of Rainfall Rate
The cities Adapazarõ, Bilecik, Edirne, Kocaeli, Tekirdağ, Konya and Kayseri are under
the dry conditions. Annual total rainfall rate is less than 600mm. Rainfall rate values have
increased in the Marmara Region, and total annual rainfall rate values would be more
than 600mm in following 30 years period, Aslan et al, (2004). There is a significant
evidence of this trend for α= 0.05 in Adapazarõ, Kocaeli and Istanbul. Based on long term
estimations, wet conditions are expected in Adapazarõ beginning from 2003. In Black Sea
Region, annual total rainfall rate values generally show an increasing trend except
Kastamonu and Samsun.
Analysis of Air Temperature
Temperature scenarios based on the linear model in all stations show an increasing
trend in the Marmara Region. It is estimated that annual air temperature values in
this region would increase 0.3oC until 2030. Similar increasing trend is observed in
Akdeniz Region in general. In this region, annual average air temperature values
recorded between 1991-2001 are 0.2 – 2.1oC higher than temperature values
observed between 1981 and 1990. In Eastern Anatolia average air temperature
values also show an increasing trend.
Analysis of Aridity
There is no aridity risk at the southern, western and northeastern part of
Turkey. In the Marmara Region, regional maximum of AI is equal to 2.99
(humid area). Thrace Part, Central and Eastern Anatolia are under the
aridity risk. In Eastern Anatolia, semi–humid or dry conditions have been
observed instead of humid or semi-humid conditions in recent years.
Analysis of Precipitation Concentration Index
Analysis show that there is a seasonal rainfall distribution in Southern Anatolia and
Akdeniz Region. Other regions have a moderate seasonal rainfall distribution. Black
Sea regions had a uniform rainfall distribution in the previous periods.
Analysis of Regional Variation of Simple Climate Departure Index
SCDI values are increased in all geographical regions, except Mediterranean Region in Turkey.
The highest increasing values have been recorded in The Marmara Region and Central Anatolia.
In these areas SCDI values which are greater than zero and, positive SCDI values correspond to
positive departures of precipitation. In contrast SCDI values are negative in Akdeniz Region
Between 1901-1930, 1961-1990 and 1991-1998, except Black Sea Region at all regions in Turkey,
there are moderate seasonal rainfall distribution. At Black Sea Region, until 1990, uniform
rainfall distribution was observed. Between 1931 and 1960, at South-eastern Anatolia, there is
moderate seasonal rainfall distribution. In the last term (between 1999- 2001), South-eastern
Anatolia, Mediterranean and Aegean Sea Regions have a seasonal rainfall distribution. In general
Turkey is under the effects of moderate seasonal rainfall distribution.
Analysis of NDVI
Density of vegetation cover (Normalised Vegetation Index, NDVI) variations are
presented in figure. In summer period, except Black Sea Region, NDVI values are low in
Turkey. In general, beginning from 2000, NDVI values show an increasing trend in
Turkey, but in Southern Anatolia lower NDVI values have been observed than the other
regions
Analysis of Climatic Parameters Effects on Gliding
Surface temperature shows increasing (approximately 1,5 C) trend in Eskişehir.
Time variation of condensation level temperature shows slightly increasing trend in
Eskişehir.
Equivalent Potential Temperature increases beginning from 2000.
Moist static energy shows increasing trend, Kahya (2000).
CONCLUSION
This study is related with the utilisation and interpretation of some surface measurements
together with the remote sensing data to explain and have some solutions of urbanization,
climate changing on gliding.
Acknowledgement
The authors wish to thank to Dr. Filippo Giorgi (The Abdus Salam International Centre for
Theoretical Physics ) and Eng. Lütfiye Kuşak for their supports. Input of this paper is related with a
national research project supported by Turkish Scientific and Technical Research Council
(TÜBİTAK, TOGTAG-Project No: 2846), and authors are very much obliged to TÜBİTAK for their
financial support.
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