1 BASIC APPROACH TO CLIMATE MONITORING

BASIC APPROACH TO CLIMATE MONITORING PRODUCTS
AND
CLIMATE MONITORING PRODUCTS IN WMO RA VI
Mesut DEMIRCAN
Geodesy and Photogrametry Engineer
Turkish State Meteorological Service
Agrometeorology and Climatological Observation Department
Climate and Climate Change Division
e-mail: [email protected]
A. The Climate for Whose:
Climate products, has different meanings for the users from every sector. For this reason, each
user community tends to a different product. For example, scientists interested in such climate
products which consist of climate variability from past to present, oscillation range and the
extreme conditions, comparison of past, present and the future climate conditions. In this
context, products; which shows oscillation and changes in climate, comparing with today's
climate and long term normal as monthly and annual assessment in local and global scale with
the standard time periods and what is the climate and climatic parameters from the beginning
of the world, are used in scientific studies.
Public and sectorial user community show more interest in another class of climate products
such as seasonal and monthly forecasts and the secondary climate products such as cooling
and heating degree days, heat index and drought and so on and they use these products for
planning their works. For example, ‘What will happen’ is very important than ‘What
happened’ for the energy sector to plan future energy use and agricultural sector to plan stages
of agricultural production. However, sectors such as insurance especially interest in records of
extreme weather events when they occurred. And also long term climate data are demanded
by sectorial user while planning and building industrial plants, solar and wind energy farms,
dams, airports and so on. This issue can be seen also in recommendations of Fifteenth session
of the Commission for Agricultural Meteorology (CAgM) “the Commission recommended
the implementation of tools and services aimed at multiple stakeholders and for assisting with
risk management. Tools and services should address long-term (strategic), seasonal (tactical)
and short-term (operational) forecasting and the distinct differences between these services.
Service delivery should assume a basic minimum access to ICT and should build up from the
minimum in a progressive manner (paragraph 4.27 WMO-No. 1062)”.
Prediction products of global and regional climate models are used mostly by scientists and
decision-makers, governments, intergovernmental and international structures for one or more
decadal planning (fig. 1).
1
Figure.11 Users for climate monitoring prooducts.
B. The Climate Feeatures:
B.1 Standard Periiod:
In orderr to speak onn climate, first
f
of all, itt is required
d to have ob
bservations oof climate variables
v
and serries of obseerved climaate variablees. Reliablee data sets are neededd to make accurate
climate analysis. Iff we make this analysiis on a larg
ge scale succh as countrries, continents and
the worrld, it needss to use thee standard pperiods, and i.e. obserrvations muust have a common
c
period.
t early and mid18000's to today which
It is onne of challeenges in cliimate analyyzes from the
instrum
mental observvations beg
gan in, both the lack off global disttribution annd adequatee number
of obserrvation stations and co
ontinuously changing in measurem
ment system
ms. There arre useful
studies to overcom
me from theese difficullties to deriive climate data base such as treee rings,
isotope techniquess etc. which
h are methhods the paaleo-climato
ology, and also data recovery
r
efforts, satellite clim
matology, re-analysis
r
pproducts of forecasting
g models.
On the other handd, there aree difficultiees in using the standarrd periods due to the climate
observaations have not begun at
a same tim
mes in every
y country. Moreover,
M
oobservation network
may nott be operateed and obserrvations maay be interru
upted becau
use of the ecconomic chaallenges,
wars, annd politicall turmoil an
nd so on. H
However, th
he standard
d periods off 1961-1990
0, 19712000 orr 1981-20100 can be useed together with or sep
parately acco
ording to m
most commo
on period
inside oof countries..
2
hese standaard periods, it must be drawn attttention of National
N
In case of selectinng one of th
Meteoroological Seervices to the
t importaance of preeparing of a homogenneous data sets for
selectedd period. Annother tool for normall’s data setss of the standard periood may be database
d
which dderived from
m re-analyzeed data sets or model outputs
o
(fig. 2).
Figure22. 1971-20000 average temperaturre of ERA4
40 re-analy
ysis data seet of the European
E
Centre ffor Medium
m-Term Weaather Forecaasts (ECMW
WF) which has createdd for the Turrkey and
differennces betweeen observattions. ERA
A40 has beeen produced from di
different sou
urces of
meteoroological obsservations by
b the ECM
MWF Integrrated Forecast System
m (IFS) (whiich have
1,125° (~125km)) resolutio
on and ttopography ranging from50m to 2500
0m for
Turkey))(Demircan, M. and Friiends, 2011 ).
Figure3. 1971-20000 average teemperature of Global Climate
C
Datta (WorldCllim) and diffferences
betweenn predicted temperatures for Turkkey(which have
h
30 arc second (~11km) resolu
ution and
topograp
aphy
ranging
fro
om
0–37730m
forr
Turkey
y)(Global
Climate
Data;
http://w
www.worldcclim.org) (D
Demircan, M
M. and Frien
nds, 2011).
3
B.2 Climate Products Features:
While analyzing of a climate parameter; must be evaluated together with the normal period,
the normal value, deviation of the normal value, the lowest and the highest value. For
example, while analyzing temperatures of a month or a year, it can be seen normal trend in
temperature but also it can consist of extreme cold or heat at same time. If we produce only
temperature normal product we do not make a true assessment for temperature. Nevertheless,
that appears in recent years, a month can be seen arid after heavy rains which fall down in one
or two days with above normal. In today's general findings, while temperature and
precipitation do not show an excessive increase in their normal, they show an increase in their
extreme events (fig. 4).
Figure4. Increase in average temperature, temperature variance and together (http://hottopic.co.nz/when-the-rain-comes/)
C. Climate Products Training and Tools:
Training of climate services personnel, it has got great importance for national and global
climate observations and climate monitoring products. In this regard, WMO Regional
Training Centers (WMO RTC) can be used to provide training for climate service of NHMSs.
Through this training, climate monitoring products can gain a standard format in all NHMSs.
In this process, WMO must take an active role both training of RTC trainer, supplying of
training document to RTC and providing financial support to trainees in developing or least
developed countries (fig.6).
4
n 7 June 20010 in WM
MO RTC
Figure66. Training course on Climate Appplications was held in
Alanya Facility, Anntalya, Turk
key by TSM
MS.
Today, there are many toolss that clim
mate monito
oring produ
ucts can bee made witth them.
Especiaally, prograams that prroduced undder the nam
me of Geo
ographic Innformation Systems
(GIS), are more skilful
s
to make
m
simplle climate monitoring
m
products aas well as detailed
productt through modelling.
m
WMO
W
mustt take an active role supplying
s
oof program and it’s
G and
trainingg to develooping or least developped countriies. There is large nuumber of GIS
mappingg programss and modeel that leadss to producce maps in many diffeerent formaats. So it
needs iddentificationn of the stan
ndard formaat for digitall maps (fig.7).
Figure77. Turkey temperature
t
e and moddelling tem
mperature map
m
is prooduced by ArcGIS
(Demirccan, M. andd Friends, 20
011).
5
D. Recommendations for Climate Products:
1 - National and global assessments must be done with comparing standard normal, and must
be consisted extreme values since the beginning of the observation .
2 – To be used products and analysis by national and global users, presentation should be
made with at least one UN official language as well as the national language. The second
language should be preferably in English.
3 -It must be developed a common language between among climate services and users for
climate monitoring products. CMPs must be promoted according to requirements of users
such as mentioned in CAgM’s report “As for regional climate change and variability impacts,
the Commission acknowledged the need to standardize and adopt climate impact assessments
at a regional level in order to identify common issues and find common solutions and
comparable results e.g., impact of high temperatures on emergence and growth cereal
crops(paragraph 4.74 WMO-No. 1062)”.
4 - Monthly and yearly analysis should be made containing at least temperature, rainfall and
extreme events with extreme values. Essential climate variables which are recommended by
WMO may also be useful to the entire analysis.
5 - Climate products must be supported by secondary products such as climatic indices,
heating and cooling degree days, heat index and drought.
6 - Monthly and annual climate monitoring products and reports must be shared immediately
with the Regional Climate Centers (RCC).
7 - Monthly and seasonal climate forecasts should be done by climate service or RCC
products can be used directly or with increasing the resolution of products. RCC and
developed prediction centers must be take active role to support national climate services in
their region and to help them to improve national climate forecast products.
8 - Global and regional climate models must be operated by RCC leadership and must be
shared with the member countries. BIM, the member countries should assist efforts to
increase the resolution for their own regions.
9 - Climate monitoring products must be serviced in digital map formats such as raster, netcdf
or shape formats as well as picture format to users. So users can use easily in their own works.
6
mate Monitooring Prod
ducts in WM
MO RAVI:
E. Clim
There aare 50 mem
mber countries in the W
WMO VI. Regional
R
Association, w
which are mostly
m
in
Europe.. Internet sites of thesse countrie s were exaamined. It cannot
c
be rreached weebsite of
3countrries which are
a Albania,, Lebanon aand Syria. During
D
the research, Gooogle translator was
used if ccountries haave a website with onlyy their own language.
E.1 Lan
nguage:
Inside oof these couuntries; 15 countries havve a website only in their own lannguage, 22 countries
c
have a w
website in 2 languages, 6 countriees have a weebsite in 3 languages
l
an
and 2 countrries have
a websitte in 4 languuages (fig.8
8, 9).
Figure.88 Languages are used in countries website.
7
Figure.99 Languages are used in countries website in WMO RA VI.
E.2 CM
MP’s Long Term
T
Perio
od (Standarrd Period) in WMO RA
R VI:
Long teerm period (Standard Period)
P
for climate mo
onitoring pro
oducts are uused in cou
untries is
as follow
ws. 3 counttries do not use the stanndard term.. 3 countries use 1961--1990 period
d for the
standardd period. 9 countries use
u 1971-2 000 period for the staandard periood. 3 counttries use
both as 1961-1990 and 1971-2
2000 periodds for the sttandard period. The staandard period of 22
countriees cannot bee identified from websiite (Fig. 10,, 11).
Figure.110 Long terrm period fo
or CMPs is uused in cou
untries.
8
or CMPs is uused in cou
untries webssite in WMO
O RA VI.
Figure.111 Long terrm period fo
E.3 CM
MP’s Produ
ucts in WMO RA VI:
Table, rreport, data,, graphic, map
m and bullletin tools of CMPs arre used in ccountries website in
WMO R
RA VI. Tabble presentaation is usedd in 2 counttries. Reporrt is used inn 22 countriies. Data
presentaation is useed in 22 countries.
c
G
Graphic preesentation is
i used in 29 countries. Map
presentaation is usedd in 29 coun
ntries. Bulleetin presentation is used in 4 count
ntries (fig.12
2, 13).
Figure.112 CMPs Prroducts are used in couuntries.
9
Figure.113 CMPs Prroducts are used in couuntries webssite in WMO
O RA VI.
E.4 Clim
mate Variaables Presented in CM
MP’s Produ
ucts in WM
MO RA VI:
Temperrature, preciipitation, wiind, sunshinne duration,, radiation, snow are cllimate variaables and
extremee events annd seasonal forecast arre presented
d in countrries websitee in WMO RA VI.
Temperrature is preesented in 30
3 countriess. Precipitattion is preseented in 299 countries. Wind is
presenteed in 10 couuntries. Sun
nshine durattion and rad
diation are presented
p
inn 4 countriees. Snow
is preseented in 3 countries. Humidity and Extrem
me events are presentted in 5 co
ountries.
Seasonaal forecast is presented in 1 countrry (fig.14, 15).
10
CMPs Produ
ucts in countries.
Figure.114 Climate variables arre used in C
Figure.115 Climate variables arre used in C
CMPs Produ
ucts in countries websitte in WMO RA VI.
E.5 CM
MP’s Produ
ucts Samplees in WMO
O RA VI:
Spanishh Meteoroloogical Servicce (AEMET
T)
(http://w
www.aemet.es/documentos/es/elcllima/datos_climat/resum
menes_clim
mat/anuales//res_anu
al_clim__2010.pdf)
11
MET Climaate in 2010 Report
R
Figure.116 Temperaature graphic from AEM
Figure.117 Temperaature and Prrecipitation maps from AEMET Climate in 20010 Report
Norweggian Meteorrological Insstitute
(http://m
met.no/Klim
ma/Klimastaatistikk/Klim
manormalerr/?module=A
Articles;actition=ArticleeFolder.
publicO
OpenFolder;ID=390)
12
Figure.117 Temperaature and Preecipitation m
maps from No
orway
13
Source:
Demircan, M., Alan, I., Sensoy, S., Increasing resolution of temperature maps by using
geographic information systems (GIS) and topography information,5th Atmospheric Science
Symposium, 27-29 April 2011, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul – Turkey
Robert J. H., Susan E. C., Juan L. P., Peter G. J. And Andy J., Very High Resolution
Interpolated Climate Surfaces For Global Land Areas, International Journal of Climatology,
Int. J. Climatol. 25: 1965–1978 (2005)
Abridged Final Report with resolutions and recommendations (WMO-No. 1062), Fifteenth
session of the Commission for Agricultural Meteorology (CAgM), 15 to 21 July 2010, Belo
Horizonte, Brazil
14