Foresee on Gold: Manual 16.02.2013/ Deniz Kahraman Now first of

Foresee on Gold: Manual 16.02.2013/ Deniz Kahraman
Foresee on Gold: Manual
16.02.2013/ Deniz Kahraman
Gold market contains a comprehensive process, which is a market for a commodity with different
dynamics. On the other hand widely debates in our community recent days. In the words of JP
Morgan, “Gold is money, everything else is credit.”, so gold is money and the best underlying asset.
Accordingly, assess this asset is true subject of expertise. Both disregard Gold professionals, as well as
not to knowing the dynamics of gold, only foresee in graph. In this study, we try to describe, affecting
the price of gold in the short term and market dynamics
1) Market Makers

Gold market makers consists on, the funds (managed money / hedge funds) and producers
(Producers). (Of Commodity Futures Trading Commission, was delayed one week, every
Friday, until Tuesday, explains the position.)

Chicago Board of Exchange (CBOE) volatility of options traded in gold. (As it is known to
increase volatility raises rates and gold prices fluctuate options are supported.)
2) Producers
 Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), indexed to World's Largest 30 Gold Producer’s
Shares.
3) Central Banks

Periodic attitude towards to quantitative easing by central banks. (For example, the arrival of a
weak U.S. employment data, for this reason more monetary stimulus to increase the pressure
on the Fed.)
4) Flow of Funds to Processor Countries
 Among the factors supporting the dollar price of gold, INR / USD(Indian Rupee) is at.
Now first of all, we introduce to, how assess Gold market makers positions. When we look at
the past movements of gold, Hedge funds are seeing is effective in the increase of prices and volatility.
Hedge funds are always a single request at any time and volatility, ie, the change in direction of prices.
But, producer’s purchases generally the formation of the bottom of is usually examined carefully.
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Foresee on Gold: Manual 16.02.2013/ Deniz Kahraman
1)Market Makers
Source: <www.stockcharts.com>
a)Funds
Now is expressed on the chart, go to October 9
Spot Price: Closed at 1.755 usd/per ounce
 Hedge Funds, open interests:187.815
 Hedge Funds, Long/Short: 17.40 (observed declines in the formation of the peak rises to 20
in the past, but not approved to academically.)
 Producers, Long/Short: 0.16
So, when Hedge Funds intrests rise, supports the Gold prices.
From now, as for February 16,
Spot Price: Closes is at “1.610 usd/per ounces”
 Hedge Funds, open interest:147.000

Hedge Funds, Long/Short:3.27 (interests of funds declines, prices is also.)

Producers, Long/Short: 0.32 (On May 22 the formation of the bottom increased to 0.40)
Since the past 17 weeks, producers positions, while the positions of the Fund is running low. Gold
price increase did not see the reason for this is due to the funds suggests that prices may fall. At this
stage, reductions in power may be set to wait for a manufacturer purchases.
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Foresee on Gold: Manual 16.02.2013/ Deniz Kahraman
b) Option Market
Source: <www.stockcharts.com>
One of the dynamics that affect gold prices, options market is. Chicago Board of Exchange option
transactions realized volatility measure, CBOE Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) as expressed in the graph.
As can be seen in the short term is approaching the level of the 200-day moving average of 16.87.
GVZ, gold falls on November 6, never made it on top of the 200-day moving average, gold prices
downward pressure transition to this level can be amplified.
2)Producers
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Foresee on Gold: Manual 16.02.2013/ Deniz Kahraman
Gold Producers to make predictions about the supply situation, a process that requires much more
comprehensive and research. To see how things are going as a simple gold producers, World’s
Largest 30 Gold Producer’s Shares indexed ETF, Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) can
follow.
GDX over the past week, up to 6 months fell to the lowest level, "39.80" points closed. GDX's last 1
month summit is "46.00" level. Based on these data Short- Terms strategy might be to,

Depending on the Gann If we look at the statistics, GDX is "41.40-39.80-38.70-37.80" zones,
XAU / USD (Gold per ounce) for the "1.625-1.597-1.530-1.472" regions considered together.
Gann 315’ support" 38.70 "in the short term as long as the region, under the back of 1530
would not be expected to withdraw.
3) Central Bank’s Policies
Gold prices will determine the most effective central bank, the Federal Reserve Bank of the United
States, no doubt. One the other hand, in Japan and soon in U.K., expansionary fiscal policies be
considered as factors supporting the dollar price of gold.
Source: <www.stockcharts.com>
The great success of the new actions of Fed, to take control of the market to ensure the price of gold as
well as providing a moral basis. Volatity chart shows it to us. These factors might be,
 1) In September 2012, "an open-ended bill purchases" as a QE3.
Each month, purchases $ 40 billion of MBS (Mortgage Backed Security).
 2) In December 2012, "Range-Based Bill Purchase Programme" as a Evans Rule.
As much as 6.5 per cent unemployment and inflation of 2% per month unlimited $ 45 billion purchase
of bills.
 3) Thus, monetary policy uncertainty has been eliminated.
In 2012, when the future becomes uncertain brought directly to the open-ended bill purchases, is also
carrot policy, time expired at different times, which would be extended continuously open to
speculation, "Operation Twist" uncertainty raised above, a description of the actions performed. Thus,
the removal of uncertainty, gold prices have been stabilized. The recent interest in gold funds is
effective in this situation can be expressed weakening.
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Foresee on Gold: Manual 16.02.2013/ Deniz Kahraman
4) Flow of Funds to Processor Countries
In this part of our study, the two largest consumers China and India will examine the gold. When we
look at the shining star of Asia and the world's second largest economy, China's foreign exchange
reserves, the level of 10%, which is far below the international average, we see that only 1.7% gold
reserve, this thesis provides the most powerful evidences in long-term to Bulls of Gold. Positively
affected by the price of gold in the short term, positive industrial production from China, growth is
very closely related to the numeral. During the past week the Chinese New Year break, the data to
support prices, can be effective in reducing the prices of gold. Gold consumption in India, mainly
cause of personal purposes. For this reason Rupee against Dollar is highly may affects of Dollar price
of Gold. The recent decline in gold prices, the depreciation against the dollar since February
Rupee'nin 6 can be effective. The course can be a clue in terms of slowing the decline.
CONCLUSION
All of these dynamics in accordance with the course of gold in the short term in order to predict the
need to monitor the results of sub-titles to be issued to summarize,
1) Fund Positions

Producers (Producers), Long / Short: "0:32", considering the earlier formation of the bottom,
0.40-level declines may be set and monitored.
2) Options

GVZ will pass the 200-day moving average level of 16.87. If increase of GVZ get accelerates,
the decline of Gold prices accelerate.
3) Producers
GDX, Gann 315 "support" 38.70 "zone should be monitored not be seen as a short-term support.
Technical Levels

When analyzing the price of gold dollars, past the peak 1928 USD / ounce, according to "1470
USD / oz" stands out as the level of support for the long-term upward trend. (1,625-1,5971,530-1,503 in support of other intermediate supports.)
GDX, "41.40-39.80-38.70-37.80" zones, XAU / USD (Gold Ounce) for the "1.625-1.597-1.530-1.472"
regions considered together. In the short term, Gann 315 "support" 38.70 "in the short term as long as
the region, 1530 USD / ounce, the protection of expected.
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Foresee on Gold: Manual 16.02.2013/ Deniz Kahraman
Supplement- Positions Commodity Exchange Inc.
9-Oct
16-Oct
23-Oct
30-Oct
6-Nov
13-Nov
20-Nov
27-Nov
4-Dec
11-Dec
18-Dec
24-Dec
31-Dec
8-Jan
15-Jan
22-Jan
29-Jan
5-Feb
Managed Money(HF)
Long
Short
L/S
Open Intrests
177,644 10,171 17.46574
187,815
169,829 11,245 15.10262
181,074
159,412 12,776 12.47746
172,188
149,389 13,961 10.70045
163,350
128,668 13,499 9.531669
142,167
137,972 13,042 10.57905
151,014
147,339 11,400 12.92447
158,739
159,947 7,640 20.93547
167,587
134,304 15,559 8.631917
149,863
134,234 14,579 9.207353
148,813
130,786 22,755 5.747572
153,541
128,403 29,509 4.351317
157,912
124,967 27,848 4.487468
152,815
117,603 30,254 3.887188
147,857
118,437 27,333 4.333114
145,770
121,758 23,861 5.102804
145,619
111,076 34,575 3.21261
145,651
113,058 34,510 3.276094
147,568
Source: <www.cftc.gov>
Long
Producers
Short
L/S
Open Intrests
41,908 258,562
0.162081
300,470
16-Oct 39,443 238,865
0.165127
278,308
23-Oct 40,928 232,022
0.176397
272,950
30-Oct 41,732 226,728
0.184062
268,460
44,160 211,709
0.208588
255,869
13-Nov 44,875 227,746
0.19704
272,621
20-Nov 44,224 233,033
0.189776
277,257
27-Nov 47,394 244,733
0.193656
292,127
48,256 223,187
0.216213
271,443
11-Dec 50,170 212,748
0.235819
262,918
18-Dec 50,213 199,985
0.251084
250,198
24-Dec 51,885 188,906
0.27466
240,791
31-Dec 50,991 186,493
0.27342
237,484
51,806 187,324
0.276558
239,130
15-Jan 52,729 188,070
0.280369
240,799
22-Jan 55,162 195,954
0.281505
251,116
29-Jan 49,831 184,696
0.2698
234,527
9-Oct
6-Nov
4-Dec
8-Jan
5-Feb
62,343 193,626 0.321976
Source: <www.cftc.gov>
255,969
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