International Geo-Hazards Research Symposium

Transkript

IGRS
International Geo-Hazards
Research Society
International Geo-Hazards
Research Symposium
ABSTRACT BOOK
İstanbul, TURKEY
9-11 March, 2009
İstanbul, TURKEY, 9-11 March, 2009
09 March 2009, Monday
OPENING CEREMONY and INVITED TALKS
Chair
Sedat İnan, Constantin Papastefanou
09:30 -10:00
Opening Remarks
10:00 -10:45
Towards a Unified Theory for Pre-Earthquake Signals- Friedemann T. Freund
10:45 -11:30
Earthquake Loss Estimation for Istanbul, HAZTÜRK - Muhammed Şahin
11:30 – 12:00 Coffee Break
12:00 -12:45
Rapid Earthquake Shaking and Loss Estimation - Mustafa Erdik
12:45 – 14:00 Lunch and Coffee Break
EARTHQUAKE RESEARCHES ( I )
Chair
Haluk Eyidoğan, Strachimir Cht. Mavrodiev
14:00 - 14:20
FP7 and Geo-Hazards Projects: Aslı Vural, M. Emre Yurttagül, C. Kızıltan
14:20 - 14:40
Strong Earthquake Clustering Revealing from Interaction of Normal Fault Segments Eleftheria Papadimitriou
14:40 - 15:00
Microseismicity and Seismotectonic Properties in the area of Central Ionian Islands –
Vassilis Karakostas
15:00 - 15:20
An EU Project on Tsunami Risks and Strategies for the European Region
(TRANSFER) and Contribution by the Istanbul University - Yıldız Altınok, Bedri Alpar,
Naşide Özer, Selma Ünlü, Hande Aykurt
Chair
Eleftheria Papadimitriou, Yıldız Altınok
15:40 - 16:00
Eight Years of Post-Seismic Deformation for the 1999, M=7.4, and M=7.1, Izmit/Düzce,
Turkey Earthquake Sequence - Rahsan Cakmak, Semih Ergintav, Simon McClusky,
Elizabeth Hearn, Robert Reilinger, Haluk Ozener, Ergin Tari
16:00 - 16:20
Radon Studies in Relation to Seismic Activities in Garhwal Himalaya - Rakesh C.
Ramola
16:20 - 16:40
Ground water and Soil-gas Radon in Relation to Earthquake Predication in Garhwal
Himalaya - Ganesh Prasad, G.P.S. Gusain, Rakesh C. Ramola
16:40 - 17:00
On the Complex Program for Researching the Possibility for When, Where and How
Earthquake’s Prediction as Well as Estimation of Natural Risks - Some Preliminary
Results - Strachimir Cht. Mavrodiev, L. Pekevski, G. Melikadze, V.D. Rusov,
V.N.Vachtenko
10 March 2009, Tuesday
09:30 - 10:10
Posters Session (I)
VOLCANOLOGY
Chair
Antonio Caprai, Orlando Vaselli
10:10 -10:30
Geochemical Surveillance in Pozzuoli Solfatara (Naples, Italy) Research, Outreach and
Communication in Volcanic Activities Monitoring - Antonio Caprai, P. Scarsi
10:30 - 10:50
Coastal Geo-Hazard in the Campania Region (Southern Italy): An İnterplay Between
Land-Born Erosional Processes and Volcano-Tectonic Activity - Crescenzo Violante,
Eliana Esposito
10:50 - 11:10
Visual and Geochemical Modifications at the Turrialba Volcano (Costa Rica) in the Last
Decade - Orlando Vaselli, F. Tassi, E. Duarte, E. Fernandez
EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING / MAN INDUCED HAZARDS
Chair
Mustafa Erdik, Rakesh C. Ramola
11:30 - 11:50
3 September 2008 (Mw=5.0) Earthquake and Triggered Earthquake History of Atatürk
Dam (eastern Turkey) - Haluk Eyidoğan, Veli Geçgel, Zümer Pabuçcu
11:50 - 12:10
Seismotectonic Zones Demarcation in the Shillong Plateau using the Microeathquakes
and Radon Emanation - Devesh Walia, A.C. Lyngdoh, A. Saxena
12:10 - 12:30
Hydrological Behaviour of Umshing River, East Khasi Hills, Meghalaya - Devesh Walia,
B. S. Mipun, Kalyanjit Sharma
12:30 - 12:50
Monitoring of Near Surface Gases for the Observation of CO2 Sequestration Sites,
Volcanoes and Earth Quake Areas - Eckhard Faber, M. Teschner, J. Poggenburg, K.
Spickenbom, S. Schlömer, I. Dumke
Chair
Mahmut Baş, Devesh Walia
14:20 - 14:40
Risks and Risk Factors Related to Salt Ore Deposits from Transylvanian Depression
(Romania) - Nicoleta Bican Brişan, Ovidiu Mera, Nicoleta Pop
14:40 - 15:00
Geothermal Energy: Potentials and Effects on the Environment - Antonio Caprai,
Paolo Scarsi
15:00 - 15:20
Risk Reduction Due To Mitigation Of Wastes Containing Technologically Enhanced
Radioactivity - Friedrich Steinhäusler
15:40 - 17:00
19:30-22:00(+)
Sight Seeing and Walking around the Taksim Square (Weather Permits)
Symposium Dinner
11 March 2009, Wednesday
09:30 - 10:10
Posters Session (II)
ENVIRONMENTAL & HEALTH HAZARDS
Chair
Luis Santiago Quindós-Poncela, Constantin Cosma
10:10 -10:30
Radon Decay Product Aerosols in Ambient Air - Constantin Papastefanou
10:30 - 10:50
Radon Potential from Soil Measurement using a Special Method of Sampling Constantin Cosma, Botond Papp, Mircea Moldovan, Victor Cosma,
Ciprian Cindea, Liviu Suciu
10:50 - 11:10
Analysis of the Contribution of Natural Sources of Radiation to the Total Dose
Received by Workers - Luis Santiago Quindós, Carlos Sainz, Ismael Fuente, Luis
Quindós, Jose Luis Gutierrez, Jose Luis Arteche
11:30 - 11:50
Continuous Measurement of Geo-chemical Parameters in Aggressive Environment Thomas Streil, V. Oeser, M. Ogena
11:50 - 12:10
Ground Radon Variations and its Influence on Indoor Concentrations - Cemil Seyis,
Sedat İnan, Thomas Streil
12:10 - 12:30
Reserved
EARTHQUAKE RESEARCHES ( II )
Chair
Thomas Streil, Bekir Tüzel
14:00 - 14:20
A New Step in Seismological Studies in Turkey: Micro-Earthquake Observations Onur Tan, Semih Ergintav, Yıldız İravul, Sedat İnan, Haluk Eyidoğan, Ahmet Yörük,
Cengiz Tapırdamaz, Adil Tarancıoğlu, Zümer Papuçcu, Ali Cankurtaranlar, Fatih
Sevim, Birgül Ödüm, Cem Açıkgöz, Cem Göknil, Ebru Tan, Recai Kartal, Kenan Yanık
14:20 - 14:40
Earthquake History and Slip Rate of Sapanca-Akyazı Segment on Western Part of
North Anatolian Fault for the Past 1000 Years - Aynur Dikbaş, H. Serdar Akyüz,
Mustapha Meghraoui, Matthieu Ferry, Çağlar Yalçıner, Cengiz Zabcı, Volkan
Karabacak, Nafiye Kıyak, Erhan Altunel
14:40 - 15:00
Multi-Disciplinary Earthquake Researches in Turkey: Geochemical Precursors of
Earthquakes Occurring in Different Tectonic Regimes - Sedat İnan, Semih Ergintav,
Bekir Tüzel, Yıldız İravul, Ruhi Saatçılar, Cemil Seyis, Rahşan Çakmak, Onur Tan,
Şakir Şimşek, Kadriye Ertekin, Aynur Dikbaş, Ahmet Yörük, Hakan Yakan, Furkan
Kulak
15:20 - 15:40
Closing Remarks
15:40 - 16:00
IGRS Present & Future – Discussion
POSTERS
P-1
Towards a Unified Theory for Earthquake Signals – Friedemann Freund
P-2
Microzonation and Disaster Risk Mitigation Studies of İstanbul Metropolitan
Municipality - Mahmut Baş, Hikmet Karaoğlu, Ahmet Emre Basmacı
P-3
General Directorate of Disaster Affairs Earthquake Research Department Bekir Tüzel, Yıldız İravul, Murat Nurlu, C. Kocaman
P-4
National Seismic Network System of Turkey – Sami Zünbül, F.T. Kadirioğlu, N.
Holoğlu, Recai F. Kartal, Tuğbay Kılıç, Kenan Yanık, Yıldız İravul, Bekir Tüzel
P-5
A Starting Point for Scientific Evaluations: The Quality Of Results a Method for
Volcanic Gas Analyses - Antonio Caprai
INVITED PRESENTATIONS
Towards a Unified Theory for Pre-Earthquake Signals
Friedemann T. Freund
NASA Ames Research Center, Earth Science Division, Moffett Field, CA 94035, California,
[email protected]
Our collective fear of earthquakes is to a large extent based on our inability to understand the many
different fleeting, often subtle signals, which the Earth sends out before major earthquakes.
Earthquakes mark only the end stage of a long drawn-out process, during which stresses build up deep
below. Given the huge energies involved, it is inconceivable – from a physics perspective – that large
earthquakes would not be preceded by some form of recognizable signals.
There have been countless reports of pre-earthquake signals, some dating back over 2000 years as
delightfully recounted in Tributsch’s 1984 book “When the Snakes Awake”. Observation of other
signals is made possible by modern ground-based and satellite-based instruments. Here is a partial list
of known non-seismic pre-earthquake signals, which deserve serious consideration:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Low to ultralow frequency electromagnetic emissions,
Regional air ionization at ground level,
Luminous phenomena, often called earthquake lights,
Perturbations in the ionosphere,
Anomalous thermal infrared radiation,
Unusual animal behavior, etc.
The science community is deeply divided over pre-earthquake signals. Nobody could say how these
signals are generated and how they fit together. Sorely missing was a verifiable physical process that
could account for this diversity of signals, seeming totally unrelated. That’s why most seismologists
have given up. Some even proclaim: “Earthquakes cannot be predicted”.
Key to deciphering pre-earthquake signals is the discovery of electronic charge carriers in rocks.
Previously unknown, these charge carriers exist in all rocks, albeit in a dormant form. When rocks are
stressed, they “wake up”. They flow out like a current flows out of a battery. They travel fast and far,
meters in the lab, kilometers in the field. Under specific conditions they can form powerful electric
currents that lead to strong electromagnetic signals. When they reach the Earth surface, they ionize the
air and cause a range of secondary reactions. With the recent progress on the scientific front we can
now say with some degree of confidence that we begin to understand pre-earthquake signals and what
they can tell us. Now we can begin thinking how to use these signals effectively as earthquake early
warning signs – to save lives and to mitigate material damages.
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Figure: A 4 m long slab of granite, stressed at one end, turns into a battery, from where current flows
out. The charge carriers are electronic, spreading within milliseconds through the entire rock. At the
rocks surface they cause a multitude of secondary processes that lead to air ionization, corona
discharges and the emission of infrared radiation.
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Earthquake Loss Estimation For Istanbul, Hazturk
Muhammed Şahin, Himmet Karaman
Istanbul Technical University, Civil Engineering Faculty, Surveying Technique Division, Maslak-Istanbul,
Turkey, [email protected]
In this paper, the constitution of loss assessment software HAZTURK for Istanbul is described.
Increasing possibility of the Istanbul Earthquake also increased the needs of a seismic loss assessment
for the city of Istanbul. This project accomplished a seismic loss assessment for the buildings and
infrastructures of the city of Istanbul. Leading seismic loss assessment software around the world are
only capable of use for the country that they were developed for. To be able to use this kind of
software for another country with different administrative units, different ground motions, different
vulnerabilities, and different inventories requires a huge effort and the results may not be as good as
required. The deficiencies are based on the different geographic reference systems used in different
countries. Zeytinburnu District is selected as the case study area for the project, which is one of the
most vulnerable districts of Istanbul on earthquake and, which have the most detailed and accurate
inventory among the other 32 districts.
The ingredients of seismic loss assessment are hazard (exposure), vulnerability or fragility
(sensitivity), inventory (value) and integrated visualization (losses). The hazard part includes the
regional attenuation relationships, strong motion records, and the acceleration values derived by using
the available attenuation relations. Vulnerability part includes the fragilities that were derived by using
a new class of fragility relationships referred to as the Parameterized Fragility Method (PFM), which
has been proposed by Jeong and Elnashai, 2006. The inventory includes the slope map, which is used
to estimate the amplification of accelerations caused by the elevation, building and structure data for
the case study area Zeytinburnu and study area Istanbul, geology and ground classification maps of
Istanbul.
For the integrated visualization part of the system, HAZTURK follows the Consequence-based Risk
Management methodology using a visually-based, menu-driven system to generate damage estimates
from scientific and engineering principles and data, test multiple mitigation strategies, and support
modeling efforts to estimate higher level impacts of earthquake hazards, such as impacts on
transportation networks, social, or economic systems. It enables policy-makers and decision-makers to
ultimately develop risk reduction strategies and implement mitigation actions.
The main advantage of HAZTURK is, it can be used for any region or country and the analyses are not
in region level. For example, the user can run all the analyses for a specific point of interest like a
3/45
building and can get the results only for that point (Figure 1). Moreover, the results can be converted
to the region level using the GIS analyses provided inside the HAZTURK. Thus, the results can be
compared with the actual or other studies results. The results of the analyses for building damage in
Istanbul are compared with several previous studies. The results of the HAZTURK loss assessment
software are within the range of the other studies results. However, the data used in this study is
relatively up to date with respect to previous studies.
Figure 1. Building damages of the Zeytinburnu District for a Mw=7.5 earthquake scenario.
4/45
Rapid Earthquake Shaking and Loss Estimation
Mustafa Erdik, Eser Durukal, Karin Şeşetyan, Mine Betül Demircioğlu,
Can Zülfikar, Ufuk Hancılar, Cüneyt Tüzün
Bogazici University, Department of Earthquake Engineering, Istanbul, Turkey, [email protected]
This study, conducted under the JRA-3 component of the EU NERIES Project, develops a
methodology and software (ELER) for the rapid estimation of earthquake shaking and losses the
Euro-Mediterranean region. This multi-level methodology developed together with researchers from
Imperial College, NORSAR and ETH-Zurich is capable of incorporating regional variability and
sources of uncertainty stemming from ground motion predictions, fault finiteness, site modifications,
inventory of physical and social elements subjected to earthquake hazard and the associated
vulnerability relationships.
The methodology encompasses the following general steps:
1. Finding of the most likely location of the source of the earthquake using regional seismotectonic
data base and basic source parameters, and if and when possible, by the estimation of fault rupture
parameters from rapid inversion of data from on-line stations.
2. Estimation of the spatial distribution of selected ground motion parameters through region specific
ground motion attenuation relationships and using shear wave velocity distributions.(similar to USGS
ShakeMap Project)
4. Incorporation of strong ground motion and other empirical macroseismic data for the improvement
of Shake Map
5. Estimation of the losses (damage, casualty and economic) at different levels of sophistication (0, 1
and 2) that commensurate with the availability of inventory of human built environment (Loss
Mapping)
Both Level 0 (similar to PAGER system of USGS) and Level 1 analysis of the ELER routine are based
on obtaining intensity distributions analytically and estimating total number of casualties either using
regionally adjusted intensity-casualty or magnitude-casualty correlations (Level 0) of using regional
building inventory data bases (Level 1). Level 0 analysis is similar to the PAGER project being
developed by USGS. For given basis source parameters the intensity distributions can be computed
using: a)Regional intensity attenuation relationships, b)Intensity correlations with attenuation
relationship based PGV, PGA, and Spectral Amplitudes and, c)Intensity correlations with synthetic
Fourier Amplitude Spectrum. Options are also available for more sophisticated treatment of site
response through externally entered data and improvement of the shake map through incorporation of
accelerometric and other macroseismic data (similar to the USGS ShakeMap Project).In Level 1
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analysis EMS98 based building vulnerability relationships are used for regional estimates building
damage and the casualty distributions. Results obtained from a pilot applications of the Level 0 and
Level 1 analysis modes of the ELER software to the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake interms of ground
shaking and losses are presented and comparisons with the observed losses are made.
Level 2 analysis of the ELER Software (similar to HAZUS) is essentially intended for earthquake risk
assessment (building damage, consequential human casualties and global economic loss indicators) in
urban areas.
The earthquake shaking and loss information is intented for dissemination in a timely manner to
related agencies for the planning and coordination of the post-earthquake emergency response.
However the same software can also be used for scenario earthquake loss estimation and related
Monte-Carlo type simulations.
6/45
ORAL PRESENTATIONS
Strong earthquake clustering revealing from interaction of normal fault segments
Eleftheria Papadimitriou
Geophysics Department, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, GR54124 Thessaloniki,
Greece, [email protected]
The proximity in time and space between strong earthquakes, as often as not, suggests a possible link
between them. Since models assuming tectonic loading alone cannot explain the sequential
occurrences, fault interaction leading to the triggering of one event by previous ones, could be the
probable mechanism. The understanding of the processes related to repeated earthquake occurrence
along segmented seismogenic structures is studied nowadays by investigating fault interaction through
stress transfer and triggering of subsequent shocks. Their occurrence interconnection is investigated by
resolving preseismic changes of Coulomb failure function ( ΔCFF ) at the locations of the ensuing
events. Coulomb stress changes are calculated assuming that earthquakes can be modelled as static
dislocations in an elastic half–space, and taking into account both the coseismic slip in strong
earthquakes (usually with M>6.0 or 6.5) and the slow tectonic stress buildup associated with major
fault segments.
In an effort to interpret the spatial and temporal clustering of strong earthquakes associated with
populations of active normal faults in the Aegean and its surroundings, it was found that triggering
through stress transfer in the members of each population, can adequately explain the occurrence
mode. Such examples from our study area concern Thessalia basin [Papadimitrou & Karakostas,
2003], south east Aegean Sea [Papadimitriou et al., 2005], Northern Greece and Bulgaria
[Papadimitriou et al., 2006].
The above results revealed that the static stress changes associated with strong earthquakes in the
above mentioned areas, advanced the occurrence of each next event in a sequence of events, in
neighboring faults that are properly positioned and oriented relative to other active faults. This agrees
with a numerical model showing that, during progressive elastic–brittle deformation, positive and
negative stress feedbacks develop spontaneously between faults [Cowie, 1998]. Thus, for an en
echelon array of sub–parallel faults, rupturing individually, along–strike neighbours will feel mutual
stress enhancement whereas faults lying to either side of the array will generally lie in regions of stress
shadow.
It means that a fault may become inactive, or be re–activated, at any stage due to its position and
orientation relative to other active faults. The location of a fault with respect to its neighbours also
strongly influences whether a fault is active and the rate at which it grows. This interpretation
7/45
significantly modifies the traditional view that factors such as mechanical weakening and fault
orientation relative to regional principal stresses exclusively control fault activity. Their displacement
rates are mutually increased by the stress increase due to neighbouring ruptures resulted in variable
displacement rates through time, which in turn resulted in episodic failure. Their interaction maybe
drives them to link up and to form a major fault zone. This working hypothesis is based on the
conceptual model suggested by Gupta and Scholz [2000] who showed that two interacting faults might
evolve into one continuous linked fault. Such through–going faults may accommodate the bulk of
subsequent deformation and thus, the formation of a new active boundary is rather the consequence
than the causative factor of contemporaneously failed fault zones [Cowie, 1998]. The stress transfer in
along strike normal fault segments, as it is revealed from the case studies and the results of the models
mentioned above, evidences strong fault interaction and provides the basis for investigating the fault
zones growth in the study area.
8/45
Microseismicity and seismotectonic properties in the area of Central Ionian Islands
Vassilis Karakostas
Department of Geophysics, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, GR 541 24, Thessaloniki,
Greece, [email protected]
Seismicity in Central Ionian Islands is the highest in Greece. Along the three islands Lefkada,
Kefalonia and Zakynthos several destructive earthquakes with magnitudes 7.0 to 7.4 have been
occurred in both the historical and instrumental era. The Kefalonia transform fault zone crossing the
area in a NNE-SSW direction is the dominating tectonic feature and responsible for the majority of the
seismic activity. However, there is evidence that some destructive earthquakes as well as lower
magnitude seismicity have been produced by active structures of different features making the
seismotectonic properties of the area very complex. A dense digital seismological network operating
permanently in the area during the last years as well as other local networks installed in the area during
periods of seismic excitation have recorded some thousands of earthquakes giving thus the opportunity
of a detailed seismotectonic study. Accurately located epicenters and focal depths along with reliably
determined focal mechanisms, revealed several zones of seismicity very close in space but with
different focal parameters. The microseismicity substantially agrees with the historic seismicity and
delineates a relatively narrow, major zone of activity that extends along the western coasts of both
Islands. In addition, along the same zone active segments of different orientation and slip are
observed. Cross sections were used in order to provide a detailed characterization of the
microseismicity and a high–resolution picture of the seismically defined structures. The recordings of
the accurately located earthquakes at the regional seismological network were used to define a
regional model and station delays, which were used for the relocation of older events. Although the
event locations, especially for those of the smaller magnitudes, is primarily based on a small number
of phases at stations in regional distances with weak signal–to–noise ratios and sparse coverage, the
yielding location improvement provides the tool for active structures identification. Definition of the
fault zone properties and their interaction is a critical input for the study area seismic hazard
assessment.
9/45
An EU Project on Tsunami Risks and Strategies for the European Region and
Contribution by the Istanbul University
Yıldız Altınok1, Bedri Alpar2, Naşide Özer1, Selma Ünlü2, Hande Aykurt1
1) Istanbul University, Engineering Faculty, Department of Geophysical Engineering, TR-34320, Avcılar,
Istanbul, Turkey ([email protected]); 2) Istanbul University, Institute of Marine Sciences and
Management, TR-34116, Vefa, Istanbul, Turkey
Historical records going back about 3000 years reveal that Turkish coasts have been affected by more than a hundred
tsunamis. Almost 40% of these tsunamis occurred in the Sea of Marmara while the rest were concentrated in Fethiye
Bay and the gulfs of Izmir and Iskenderun. The Sea of Marmara tsunamis mostly affected Izmit Bay, Istanbul coasts,
Gulf of Gemlik, Kapıdağ Peninsula and Gelibolu coasts. One of the best known and most disastrous earthquakes
occurred on September 10, 1509 and caused high damage from Edirne in the west to Bolu in the east. A co-seismic
tsunami caused waves as high as 6 m which overtopped the city walls of Istanbul and invaded the streets in Yenikapı
and Galata. Even not worse than this a very strong earthquake on April 3, 1851 in Mediterranean caused flooding in
the town of Fethiye which was about 1.8 m above the mean sea level.
In order to understand and determine the tsunami potential and their possible effects, some comprehensive studies and
projects with international collaboration are needed. TRANSFER (acronym for "Tsunami Risk ANd Strategies For
the European Region") is a European Community funded project being coordinated by the University of Bologna in
Italy and involving 29 partners in Europe, Turkey and Israel. The core of the project is related to risk associated with
tsunami generation in the Euro-Mediterranean region and their impacts, and to the related strategies to manage, control
and deal with such a risk: hence risk assessment methodologies and risk reduction policies, from prevention to
mitigation, are main subjects of the project.
The work packages within the TRANSFER project are as follows: tsunami catalogue, tsunami seismic sources,
tsunami non-seismic sources, analysis of instrumental signals and networks for the development of a tsunami early
warning system, improvement of numerical models, probabilistic and statistical approaches to estimate tsunami
potential and impact, production of inundation maps, scenarios of large tsunami impact and risk assessment and
reduction, and data management and dissemination. There are seven test areas selected in different countries facing the
eastern Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. Two of these test areas are in Turkey; which are the Istanbul coasts in
the Sea of Marmara and Fethiye Bay in the Mediterranean Sea.
The contribution of Istanbul University covers; inclusion of new events or updating of existing events through
paleotsunami studies at 5 different localities, inclusion of new events or updating of existing events of historical (preinstrumental and instrumental) times, inventory of the seismic tsunami sources, characterization of the tsunamigenic
seismic sources, investigation of tsunamigenesis from historical earthquakes and description of non-seismic
tsunamigenic sources and inventory of relevant available data on and near the Turkish coasts. The results are being
used for the test areas, in order to develop tsunami scenario approaches, to assess vulnerability and risks, and to define
prevention and mitigation measures. The outcome of the projects and related data will be disseminated to the public.
10/45
Eight Years of Post-Seismic Deformation for the 1999, M=7.4, and M=7.1, Izmit/Düzce,
Turkey Earthquake Sequence
Rahsan Cakmak1, Semih Ergintav1, Simon McClusky2, Elizabeth Hearn3, Robert Reilinger2, Haluk Ozener4,5,
Ergin Tari5
1) TUBITAK, MRC, Earth and Marine Sciences Institute, Turkey, [email protected], 2) Department
of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, MIT, USA, 3) Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences,
University of British Columbia, Canada, 4) KOERI, Bogazici University, Istanbul, Turkey, 5) ITU, Civil
Engineering Faculty, Istanbul, Turkey
We report the results of eight years of postseismic deformation measurements using continuously recording
and survey mode GPS observation for the 1999 Izmit earthquake sequence (M=7.4, 17/08/99, and M=7.1,
12/11/99 earthquakes). Geodetic monitoring in the epicentral region was initiated more than 10 years prior
to the sequence providing constraints on the rate and spatial pattern of pre-earthquake strain accumulation
and on coseismic motions. Geodetic monitoring was intensified during the days and weeks following the
first event and continues to the present time. Postseismic motions show a similar spatial pattern to
coseismic motions, being symmetric across, but more broadly distributed around, the coseismic fault.
Resolvable postseismic changes to the pre-earthquake interseismic velocity field extend at least as far as the
CGPS station in Ankara, ~200 km SE of the Izmit coseismic fault. Eight years after the earthquake
sequence, deviations from the interseismic velocity field observed late in the earthquake cycle (i.e., during
the 10 year period just prior to the earthquake) are largest within about 40 km of the fault, reaching ~10 ± 1
mm/yr, roughly 50% of the “steady state” interseismic rate. Present-day postseismic motions decrease
further from the fault to a value of ~3 mm/yr at Ankara (~15% of interseismic motion rate). Temporally,
postseismic site motions decrease monotonically following the earthquake sequence at all sites. We use a
sequence of logarithmic functions to characterize continuous GPS site motions and find a good fit using 3
“characteristic” time behaviors with time constants of 1 day, 150 days, and 3500 days. We constrain the
longest-term time behavior by requiring that site velocities decay to their pre-earthquake rates late in the
earthquake cycle, estimated at approximately 250 years. Continuously operating GPS sites which were
operating at the time of the Izmit earthquake, and which are within about 50 km of the rupture, require the
shortest characteristic decay time term. This term is mainly required for the component of site motion
parallel to the NAFZ, strongly implicating rapid afterslip on and possibly below the coseismic fault. Most
of the continuously operating GPS sites require all three characteristic time terms. However, the Ankara
continuous station located 250 km from the epicenter is fit well with only the longest time series term.
While the shortest decay time near the fault is most simply associated with afterslip based on the spatial
character of deformation, the intermediate and longer-term behavior is broadly distributed, with a “double
couple” spatial pattern suggestive of a deeply-seated process, most likely viscoelastic relaxation of the
upper mantle and lower crust. In the Marmara region, the later postseismic velocities are more complicated,
and may reflect a redistribution of interseismic strain rates among active fault strands in that region.
11/45
Radon Studies in Relation to Seismic Activities in Garhwal Himalaya
Rakesh C. Ramola
Department of Physics, H.N.B. Garhwal University, Badshahi Thaul Campus, Tehri Garhwal – 249 199, India,
[email protected]
During the last three decades, research on earthquake related radon and helium monitoring has
received enormous attention. It has been found to have a great potential as a reliable precursor for an
impending earthquake. This paper presents some results of continuous monitoring of radon levels in
soil-gas and spring water at Tehri (Garhwal Himalaya), India. Efforts are made to correlate the
variance of radon concentration in spring water with seismic events in the study area. Sudden
increases in radon concentration in soil-gas and spring water were observed before the earthquakes
occurred in the area. The variations in radon concentrations in soil-gas and spring water are found to
be correlated with the seismic activities in the Garhwal Himalaya. A positive correlation was also
observed between the radon concentration in spring water and the water discharge rate from the
spring. The significant correlation between radon anomalies and earthquake activities in Garhwal
Himalaya shows that this noble technique may be exploited as an additional tool in earthquake
prediction programme in Himalayan region. To be useful as a precursor in an earthquake prediction
programme, the continuous measurements of various parameters viz. radon, helium, earth’s
conductivity and resistivity, groundwater level and temperature, water discharge rate from spring,
ULF/VLF measurements and land deformation study at several sites in a grid pattern is necessary.
While earthquake prediction may not yet be possible, earthquake prediction research has greatly
increased our understanding of earthquake source mechanisms, the structural the structural
complexities of fault zones, and the earthquake recurrence interval, expected at a given location. The
role and usefulness of some earthquake precursors are discussed in this paper.
12/45
Ground water and Soil-gas Radon in Relation to Earthquake Predication in Garhwal
Himalaya
Ganesh Prasad, G.P.S. Gusain, R.C. Ramola
Department of Physics, H.N.B. Garhwal University, Badshahi Thaul Campus, Tehri Garhwal-249199, India,
[email protected]
Ground water and Soil-gas radon are well established as geochemical precursors for earthquake
prediction studies. The results of continuous monitoring of radon in soil-gas in Garhwal Himalaya,
India. Daily soil-gas and ground water radon monitoring with seismic activity and meteorological
parameters were performed in the same laboratory system, located at H.N.B.Garhwal University
Campus, Tehri Garhwal, India. The analysis of data of monitoring of radon in soil-gas and spring
water along with the water discharge rate form spring, seismic events and meteorological parameters,
it can be concluded that radon activity is some time associated with the local and regional stress-strain
changes in the area presentation.
13/45
On the Complex Program for research the possibility for “when”, “where” and “how”
earthquake’s prediction as well as estimation of natural risks - some preliminary results
Strachimir Cht. Mavrodiev1, L. Pekevski2, G. Melikadze3, V.D. Rusov4, V.N.Vaschenko5, B.
Vachev1, V.N. Pavlovych6, Yu.Bogdanov7, A.Liashchuk8.
1) Institute for Nuclear Research and Nuclear Energy, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria,
[email protected], 2) Seismological Observatory Skopje, Faculty of Natural Sciences, University Sts Cyril
and Methodius, Skopje, Macedonia, 3) Geophysical Institute, Georgia Academy of Sciences, Tbilisi, Georgia, 4)
Odessa National Polytechnic University, Odessa, Ukraine, 5) Ukrainian National Antarctic Centre, Ministry of
Education and Sciences, Kiev, Ukraine, 6) Institute for Nuclear Research, National Academy of Sciences of
Ukraine, Kiev, Ukraine, 7) Institute of Geophysycs, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kiev, Ukraine,
8) Special Control Centre, National Cosmic Agency of Ukraine, Makarov, Ukraine
A Complex Program for regional and global researching of possibility for prediction the earthquake’s
time, place (epicenter, depth), magnitude and intensity using reliable precursors is shortly presented
and analyzed. The precursors list includes usual geophysical and seismological monitoring of the
region, including hydrochemical monitoring of water sources and their Radon and Helium
concentrations, crust temperature, and hydrogeodeformation field, monitoring of the electromagnetic
field under, on, and above Earth surface in different frequency range, meteorological monitoring of
the atmosphere, including earthquake clouds and electrical charge distributions, near space
monitoring aimed to estimate the Sun or Earth origin of variations, and biological precursors. The
Program is based on contemporary data acquisition system for preliminary archiving, testing,
visualizing, and analyzing the data.
The theoretical part of the Program includes wide
interdisciplinary research based on the unification of standard Earth sciences and using of nonlinear
inverse problem methods for discovering the empirical and hidden dependences between variables.
By means of special software the complex environmental and real time analyzed Satellite data shall be
used to prepare regional daily risk estimations.
Some preliminary results are presented:
•
The reliability of imminent “when” earthquake’s predictions, which are based on the
correlation between geomagnetic quakes and the incoming minimum (or maximum) of tidal
gravitational potential. There is unique correspondence between the geomagnetic quake signal
and the maximum of the monitoring point of the energy density of the predicted
earthquake. The probability time window for the incoming earthquake is for the tidal
minimum approximately ± 1 day and for the maximum- ± 2 days. The statistic evidence for
reliability is based on of distributions of the time difference between occurred and predicted
earthquakes for Sofia region (one component of geomagnetic vector) and for Skopje
(geomagnetic vector monitoring in variometer mode). The predictions are valid for the
earthquakes with magnitude greater then 3 at distance up to some 700- 800 km. The distance
dependence of the prediction accuracy on the magnitude is presented and analyzed;
14/45
•
The Sofia (2002-2007) and Skopje (2005-2007) geomagnetic data and geomagnetic quake as
reliable imminent regional earthquake precursor;
•
The Kamenets-Podolsk radon data as reliable regional earthquake medium-term precursor
concerning Vrancha region;
•
The preliminary data of Istanbul-Sevastopol-Sudak electromagnetic wideband monitoring;
•
The preliminary analysis of Kiev and Lvov INTERMAGNET geomagnetic observatories;
•
The preliminary analysis of correlation between hydrogeodeformation field variations and
earthquakes for Georgia;
•
A reliability of predictions made for the world spectral earthquake numbers- 2006, 2007;
•
The possibility for systematic of earthquake parameters Richter Magnitude, Seismic Moment,
Intensity and Depth;
•
The world statistic from 1973 of correlations between Earth tides and earthquakes;
•
The correlation between global warming and increasing seismicity on the basis of Sun Spots,
Sun Irradiation budget, CO2 anthropogenic production and atmospheric concentration, Ocean
level, number and energy of hurricanes is analyzed and the Project for researching the natural
or anthropogenic origin of Climate change;
•
The distribution of the World earthquakes with magnitude>4 with depth and possible
explanation on the basis of Nuclear reactors set on the Earth Core;
•
On the possible modeling for Climate change and Earth seismicity behavior correlations.
15/45
Geochemical Surveillance e in Pozzuoli Solfatara (Naples, Italy) Research, outreach and
communication in volcanic activities monitoring
Antonio Caprai, Paolo Scarsi
Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources, Pisa, Italy, [email protected],
Phlegrean Fields region is characterized by bradyseism phenomena, consisting in an alternation of
slow increases and subsequent decreases of the ground level of the area around Pozzuoli (Naples,
Italy). Even if the mechanism of bradyseism is not yet well understood, the most common opinion is
that it is associated with variation in the activity of the “magmatic reservoir” with consequent change
in temperature and pressure of the deep system resulting in subsidence phenomena of the overlying
rocks.
On 1500 a.c. an important bradyseism phase with an soil uplift of about 7 m was precursor of the
eruption and born of Monte Nuovo Volcano (1538 a.c.). After this eruption a period of slow ground
subsidence started.
Other crises in the same area, respectively in the periods 1969-1972 a.c. and 1982-1984 a.c. resulted in
a total ground uplift of more than 3.5 m.
During the first period of crisis the uplift was of about 1.7 m, followed by a partial subsidence till
1982 a.c.; in the period between 1982 and 1984 a new increment of the ground level (of about 1,8 m)
initiated, this phase being characterized by a large number of earthquakes ( ≅ 10.000), with a
magnitude up to M = 4.2 on October 4th, 1983. During these crises a large part of population needed
to be evacuated.
Since 1984 a team of scientists of the Geosciences and Earth Resources Institute (IGG-CNR Pisa) is
working on the area of Phlegrean Fields aimed to characterize and study the volcanic area via
systematic sampling of fluids emission from Pozzuoli Solfatara, with particular attention to the hottest
fumaroles (about 170 oC) named “Bocca Grande” (Big Mouth).
The results of chemical analyses of most reactive gases (H2, CH4, H2S, CO2, CO...) since 1984, show
very peculiar trend that is well emphasised on a H2–CH4–H2S triangular diagram, and also in binary
diagrams (e.g. CH4–H2S) which show a strong correspondence between gas chemical composition and
the bradyseism evolution.
16/45
In particular, on the basis of available experimental data, is quite evident a gas compositional trend
associated with bradyseism, characterized from a relative increase of H2S, a decrease of H2 and
especially of CH4 during the phase of uplift, returning back to the original compositional ratio of the
chemical species in the diagrams during the phase of subsidence to finally reach the stability phase.
In case of strong evidence (from monitoring of precursors, both geochemical and geophysical) of the
possibility of a volcanic eruption and/or bradeysism phenomena, an important issue to be faced from
the Local Authorities is the organization of an efficient and safe set of procedure in order to evacuate
the people living in the area. In this respect, relevant importance assumes the outreach and
communication between scientists, civil protection, mass media and population.
Starting point for a proper information must be outreach at a scholar level education. Attention should
also be dedicated to consequences of communication regarding social aspect of local community (e.g.
commercial and tourism activities, houses price, integrity of historical buildings and monuments ...).
In this context appears to be essential the interaction between press and scientific community, and the
role of a “scientific spokesman” would be possibly the most convenient way to avoid dangerous
misunderstanding and incorrect communications.
References:
1. Okada H. - Scientists’ Efforts for Volcanic Hazard Mitigation with Special Emphasis of Mt.
Usu, Japan – Volcanik Risk Symposium – Tenerife - June 2, 2004
2. Scandone R., 1977, Il rischio da colate di lava e implicazioni socio-economiche., Atti del
convegno "I Vulcani Attivi dell'Area Napoletana", 103-106, , Napoli
3. Bernstein R.S., Baxter P. J., Buist A.S., 1986, Introduction to Epidemiological Aspects of
Explosive Volcanism, in "American Journal of Public Health" Suppl. Vol. 76, 3-9
4. Giggenbach W. F., Tedesco, Sulistiyo, Caprai, Cioni, Favara, Fischer, Hirabayashi,
Korzhinsky, Martini, Menyailov, Shinohara, 2001 – Evaluations of results fro the fourth and
fifth IAVCEI field workshop on volcanic gases, Vulcano Island, Italy and Java, Indonesia.
Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research. Vol. 108, 17 pp., 157-172
17/45
Coastal geo-hazard in the Campania region (Southern Italy): an interplay between landborn erosional processes and volcano-tectonic activity
Crescenzo Violante, Eliana Esposito
Istituto per l’Ambiente Marino
[email protected]
Costiero,
CNR,
Calata
Porta
di
Massa,
Napoli,
Italy.
The study area includes two major embayments of the eastern Tyrrhenian margin, namely the Naples
and Salerno Bays, separated by the Sorrento Peninsula, a major Quaternary morpho-structural unit of
the western flank of Southern Apennines, consisting of a narrow and elevated mountain range. Both
bays develop within wide coastal tectonic depressions - the Campania and Sele plains – characterized
by volcanic and seismic activity since the Plio-Pleistocene.
Major hazard-related seafloor features resulting from marine geophysical investigations strictly
correlate with episodes of intense coastal erosion driven by volcano-tectonic activity and hydrological
events. Debris aprons and seafloor hummocks, with rafted blocks occurring up to 30 km from the
shore, off Ischia volcanic island and Somma-Vesuvio indicate catastrophic and less catastrophic
landslide events with high tsunamigenic potential. These deposits partly associate with underwater
failure areas, but the occurrence of a subaerial amphitheatre scarp at Mt. Epomeo and the seaward
opening of the Mt. Somma caldera clearly suggest a terrestrial initiation of the landslide phenomena.
Other volcanic-dominated seafloor and coastal slope instabilities associate with dispersal of
pyroclastic fall-out deposits following the great A.D. 79 Vesuvius eruption. The plinian event have
accumulated huge amount (up to 2 m of pyroclastic air-fall tephra) of loose pyroclastic material over
large marine and coastal areas thus creating favourable conditions for volcaniclastic mass flows and
rapid sediment transfer. Wavy and lobate seafloor morphologies resulting from creep deformations
and slumps of the A. D. 79 air-fall tephra, occur off the Sarno river and in the Salerno Bay. In
particular, several debris slides due rapid accumulation of volcaniclastic material occur underwater
along the southern flank of the Salerno Valley up to a depth of 500/600 m.
18/45
Visual and geochemical modifications at the Turrialba volcano (Costa Rica) in the last
decade
Orlando Vaselli1,2, F. Tassi2, E. Duarte3, E. Fernandez3
1) Department of Earth Sciences, University of Florence, Via G. La Pira 4, 50121, Florence, Italy,
[email protected], 2) CNR-IGG Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources, Via G. La Pira 4, 50121,
Florence, Italy, 3) Volcanological and Seismological Observatory OVSICORI, Heredia, Costa Rica
The prediction of volcanic events and the evaluation of the volcanic risk are the main concerns for the
volcanological community. Despite the many efforts that have clarified the processes leading to
volcanic eruptions, constraints on timing, magnitude and intensity on impending volcanic activity are
still poorly understood. Turrialba (10º02N, 83º45W), located in the Cordillera Central of Costa Rica),
is a 3,349 m high stratovolcano and represents the south-easternmost Costa Rica's Holocene volcano.
After the last eruption occurred in the West Crater in 1864-1866, Turrialba has shown a modest crater
fumarolic activity with outlet temperatures up to 93 °C. In summer 2001 four seismic swarms occurred
and new fumarolic vents have opened. Since 2005 both the seismic events and the fumarolic activity
has further increased indicating worrying signs of awakening and a possible resuming of the volcanic
activity. Presently, a volcanic plume produced by the increased fumarolic activity is affecting the
southwestern flank of Turrialba volcano causing heavy damages to the vegetation and the local
economy. New fumaroles (up to 93 °C) and cracks (several tenths of meters long and up to 20 cm
wide) have formed in the outer SW flank from the crater summit down to few hundreds meters. In
2007, fumaroles were also recognized at the base of the volcanic edifice along the WSW-ENEtrending Ariete fault. At the bottom of the West Crater a jet fumarole is discharging fluids at the
temperature of 278 °C (March 2008) after a dramatic temperature increase in the last few months (e.g.
185 °C in September, 2007). Gas geochemistry indicates that both the old and the newly-formed
fumaroles are evidencing an overall and abrupt increment in time of the concentrations of magmaticderived gases (e.g. SO2, HCl, HF) as well as of N2/Ar, CO/CO2, H2S/CO2 and CO2/CH4 ratios. How
can the timing of the onset of a volcanic eruption (if any) be determined? Which are the possible
scenarios?
19/45
3 September 2008 (Mw=5.0) earthquake and triggered earthquake history of Atatürk
Dam (eastern Turkey)
Haluk Eyidoğan1, Veli Geçgel1, Zümer Pabuçcu2
1) Istanbul Technical University, Department of Geophysical Engineering, Maslak, İstanbul, 34469, Turkey,
[email protected], 2) TUBITAK Marmara Research Center, Earth and Marine Sciences Institute, Gebze,
Kocaeli, Turkey
3 September 2008 (02:2 UTC, ML=5.2) earthquake has occurred in the lake area of Atatürk Dam and
Hydroelectric Power Plant, one of the largest dam in Turkey. A series of aftershocks has followed the
main-shock and two aftershocks with magnitude ML=4.6 ve ML=4.0 have occurred. The possibility of
the earthquakes to be triggered by dam and the proximity of the rock-fill body of the dam to Bozova
Fault has motivated us to investigate the characteristics of 3 September 2008 earthquake and its
aftershocks. The recent seismicity of the dam region, the mechanisms of the main-shock and aftershocks and their relations to Bozova Fault have been studied. The results show that the triggered
seismicity due to water level changes in the dam was active in the past. 3 September 2008 earthquake
and its aftershocks are triggered by a very big amount of water loss and this recent activity is not
related to Bozova Fault. It is suggested that the continuation of radical level changes in water due to
severe climate regime may cause triggered mid-size earthquakes in the future.
20/45
Seismotectonic Zones Demarcation in the Shillong Plateau using the Microeathquakes
and Radon emanation
Devesh Walia1, A.C. Lyngdoh1, A. Saxena2
1) Centre for Environmental Studies, North-Eastern Hill University, Shillong-793022 INDIA,
[email protected], 2) Department of Physics, North-Eastern Hill University, Shillong-793022 INDIA
Shillong plateau, a composite cratonic part of the Indian plate, is tectonically very active due
to its collision with the Tibetan landmass in the North and the Shan Tenasserim block in the
east. The area has experienced two major earthquakes in 1987 and 1950 and numerous
earthquakes due to its nearness to the Alpine Himalayan folded mountain chain, AssamArakan-Yoma thrust belt and Dawki Thrust. The microearthquake (MEQ) data and radon
emanation are used to demarcate the seismotectonic zones. The monitored MEQ events and
their interpretation show the definite pattern of the activity disposition indicating the active
Seismotectonic zones. The radon emanation studies using the time integrated continuous
(SSNTD) detectors and alpha guard are carried out along the identified active zones. The
anomalous radon concentration helps in demarcating the seismotectonic zones in the Shillong
plateau as the deeper crustal structure creates relatively permeable and porous zones that may
serve as the conduits to the surface for the radon produced at depth. Further studies are being
carried out for detailed study and modeling
21/45
Hydrological behaviour of Umshing river, East Khasi Hills, Meghalaya
Devesh Walia1, B. S. Mipun2, Kalyanjit Sharma1
1) Centre for Environmental Studies, North-Eastern Hill University, Shillong-793022 INDIA,
[email protected], 2) Department of Geography, North-Eastern Hill University, Shillong-793022 INDIA
The hydrological behavior is controlled by complex interactions between geomorphic,
hydrological, hydro-geological, biological processes and land use practices in hillslope and
small catchments. Linkages between hydrologic behaviour and geomorphic-soil attributes
influences nonlinear or threshold responses of the hydrologic functions as runoff generation
from open hillslope and colluvial hollows, expansion of preferential flow networks,
redistribution of subsurface water storage in soils and groundwater contribution from bedrock.
The morphometric and drainage basin analysis is carried out quantitatively. The quantitative
drainage analysis is done aspect wise such as linear, aerial and relief aspects.
In this paper results are presented about the Hydrological behavior of Umshing river, East
Khasi Hills, Meghalaya, using the Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) and diffusion of GIS
software, in order to define multi-scale geo-morphometric landform types and hydrologic
behavior. The Umshing basin shows a trellis drainage pattern indicating the structural control
on the drainage. Structural and geomorphological features control the directions of flow of the
tributaries. It is observed and inferred that the Umshing river catchment is under the stage of
creep or tilting and hence the detail studies are being carried out to decipher the vulnerability
of the same.
22/45
Monitoring of near surface gases for the observation of CO2 sequestration sites,
volcanoes and earth quake areas
Eckhard Faber, M. Teschner, J. Poggenburg, K. Spickenbom, S. Schlömer , I. Dumke
Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe (BGR), Stilleweg 2, D-30655 Hannover, [email protected]
Geosciences open a wide field for the application of gas monitoring techniques. Underground gas
storage and sequestration of carbon dioxide is one of the methods to reduce the input of anthropogenic
CO2 into the atmosphere to reduce the greenhouse effect. Storage of CO2 is planned in depleted
reservoirs, in aquifers and in salt caverns. Storage sites must have no or very small leakage rates to
safely store the CO2 for long time. Thus, a careful investigation and site selection is crucial and any
leakage of CO2 to the surface is potentially dangerous for humans and environment.
Therefore, instruments and systems for the monitoring of soil CO2 at storage sites had and have to be
developed and have to be continuously improved. Similar types of technical equipment have been
developed to study natural gases escaping soils, sea bottom, volcanic fumaroles and mud volcanoes.
Monitoring data help to improve the storage of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, to study and better
understand natural gas reservoirs and processes in volcanoes and earth quake prone areas.
Depending on the task the systems can be equipped with sensors to measure CO2, CH4, H2S, SO2, Rn
concentrations and other environmental parameters (atmospheric pressure, ambient and soil
temperatures, etc.). Data are measured in short intervals (minute to subminute), are stored locally and
are accessed by telemetrical systems. In addition to soil gases monitoring systems technical equipment
is available for continuous surface or under water gas (flow) measurements.
Several of such monitoring systems are installed and operated by our group and examples will be
given both on technical details and data monitored in different areas like Czech Republic, Austria,
Italy, Germany and others. Some more informations may be found in the following references:
Faber, E., Morán, C., Poggenburg, J, Garzón, G. & Teschner, M. (2003). Continuous gas monitoring at
Galeras Volcano, Colombia: first evidence. J. Volc. Geotherm. Res. 125, 13-23.
Faber, E., May, F., Möller, I., Poggenburg, J. Schultz, H.-M. & Teschner, M. (2008): Soil gas baseline
survey. WP 3.2 Field case “Atzbach-Schwanenstadt” CASTOR technical report (final report),
Hannover.
Teschner, M.. Faber, E., Poggenburg, J., Vougioukalakis, G.E. & Hatziyannis, G. (2007). Continuous,
direct gas-geochemical monitoring in hydrothermal vents: installation and long-term operation on
Nisyros Island (Greece). Pure Appl. Geophys. 164, 2549-2571.
Weinlich, F.H., Faber, E., Boušková, A., Horálek, J., Teschner, M. & Poggenburg, J. (2006):
Seismically induced variations in Mariánské Lázně fault gas composition in the NW Bohemian swarm
quake region, Czech Republic – a continuous gas monitoring. Tectonophysics, 421, 89-110.
23/45
Risks and Risk Factors Related to Salt Ore Deposits from Transylvanian Depression
(Romania)
Nicoleta Bican-Brişan1, Ovidiu Mera2, Nicoleta Pop1
1) “Babeş-Bolyai” University, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Cluj-Napoca, 400290, Romania,
[email protected] , 2) Turda Salt Mine, Turda, 401106, Romania
Salt is one of the most important natural geological resources of the Romanian basement. The
presence of large salt deposits and salt exploitation in the underground were elements that supported
the existence and multi-millenary development of many Romanian towns. However, the presence of
salt and the interest shown by society in exploiting and capitalizing this natural resource have
generated many environmental and sometimes, social problems.
The long-term risks connected to salt massifs are presented for different areas. We also discussed the
role of the risk factors for some releasing phenomena (dissolution, crumbling and collapse,
contamination, etc.). These factors request significant measures to be taken for regional protection.
In the salt solution-mining exploitation, there is a hydrogeological risk present at the salt diapir
borders due to excessive kinetic dissolutions at the top of the salt massif and at the level of resistance
elements of old flooded works. Salt solution-mining operations must be monitored to ensure that the
top of the deposit continues to be supported and the produced brine water does not leak and
contaminate soil or fresh water resources.
Another kind of risk related to salt deposits from the Transylvanian Depression is the crumbling and
collapse risk in the old mines areas, with possibilities of changing the salt massif lakes configuration
(depth and extension).
The contamination risk of the environmental factors is mainly due to the presence of tailings ponds
(liquid products) and the salt material storage banks (solid products) close to water courses.
In some places, the environmental effects of salt presence and its exploitation are represented by
geomorphologic elements; their appearance in the area defines the instability risk (landslides,
subsidence depressions, etc.).
Therefore, the environmental risks generated by salt resources in the Transylvanian Depression are
mainly connected to old mining works, but they are also controlled by the anthropic factor. For this
reason, all the hazard factors induced by the presence of salt have to be considered, and in the same
time the saliferous areas have to be carefully and continuously monitored.
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Geothermal Energy: Potentials and Effects on the Environment
Antonio Caprai, Paolo Scarsi
Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources, Pisa, Italy, [email protected]
Grow of the world population and rising per capita energy use lead to increased energy demands in the
next years. Geo-scientists have been able to discover and exploit energy resources with remarkable
success (oil, gas, coal, …); however this success may have the adverse consequence that can seriously
affect the environment increasing pollutants emission into the atmosphere (e.g. CO2). In this context
Geothermal Energy is an attractive form of energy: heat emanating from the Earth's interior provides a
relatively clean source of energy and large amounts are potentially available, especially in volcanic
areas, where it is therefore convenient to be extracted and exploited. The actually total installed
capacity in the world is 9.7 GW. From a geological point of view, Geothermal Energy is associated
with a natural Geothermal System, namely a hot source and a fluid which transfer the heat towards the
surface. Exploitation of geothermal systems consists in the extraction of natural steam or hot water –
confined by an impermeable seal and heated by the hot rock –from holes drilled into the ground. In
the framework of a correct methodology for a sustainability analysis of geothermal power plant,
behind the aspects of socio-economic sustainability (and longevity), particular attention need to be
addressed to risks associated to possible environmental impact, air and water pollution, heat rejection
waste water, seismic activity, well blow-out, such as land use, etc). IGG – CNR Pisa and ENEL (A.
Rossi, references), dedicate particular attention to study land subsidence problems associated with
geothermal exploitation. Systematic monitoring of ground level deformation and land subsidence
investigation in the Travale-Radicondoli Geothermal Field, Tuscany - Central Italy, has been carried
out between 1973 and 2003. A 10x10 km wide geodetic network has been set-up in the area for period
of the order of tenths of years, aimed to detect topographic and gravity changes for relatively long
period of activity.
Main activity consisted in: a) periodical repeated monitoring with complementary techniques to detect
the trends of the changes occurring at slow rates, with small values distributed over a long time; b)
spirit levelling method of monitoring, adopted to detect small ground deformation; c) Use of satellite
observation techniques for short time surveillance of large areas.
Results can be summarized as follows:
1) After a 30 year period of industrial exploitation, a maximum land subsidence of about 50 cm in the
small central area of the geothermal system has been detected, almost no help from the reinjection of
fluids has been observed.
25/45
2) Subsidence rates decreased from about 2.3 cm/year at the beginning, to about 1 cm/year at present,
while geothermal production has increased from 60 to 240 kg/s.
Solutions to potential risks due to antrophic modifications of natural geothermal systems in the
exploration and exploitation of geothermal resources are technical as well as legal: they need to be
evaluated and improved in order to needlessly inhibit the development of this much needed energy.
Rerferences:
Ciulli B., Dini I, (ENEL GEM), Palmieri F., (INOGS-OGS), Rossi A. (IGG – CNR) Ground
Deformation and Micro-Gravity Changes in the Travale - Radicondoli Geothermal Field –
Tuscany (Italy).
26/45
Risk Reduction Due to Mitigation of Wastes Containing Technologcially Enhanced
Radioactivity
Friedrich Steinhäusler
Div. of Physics and Biophysics, University of Salzburg, Hellbrunnerstr. 34, A 5020 Salzburg, Austria,
[email protected]
Human activities can modify naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM) into technologically
enhanced naturally occurring radioactive material (TENORM), resulting in enhanced concentration of
NORM in a product, by-product or residual material. Thereby individuals can receive increased
radiation exposure due to technically enhanced natural radioactivity (TENR) either as workers or
consumers.
This paper provides an overview of these main topic areas, describing schematically the individual
production steps, end product, and associated emissions and wastes, for the following industrial
activities: Oil- and gas exploration, coal as fuel, use of geothermal energy, water treatment facilities,
aluminium production, iron production, gold production, mineral sands, fertilizer production and
building material industry.
Selected management and remediation strategies and technologies will be critically assessed, such as
containment, immobilization, dilution/dispersion, natural attenuation, separation, treatment of
effluents, reuse and recycling.
Socioeconomic aspects of waste management and remediation measures will be taken into account for
the different waste materials resulting from selected TENORM-industries.
27/45
Radon Decay Product Aerosols in Ambient Air
Constantin Papastefanou
Atomic and Nuclear Physics Laboratory, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki 54124, Greece,
[email protected]
The aerodynamic size distributions of radon decay product aerosols, i.e.
214
Pb,
212
Pb, and
210
Pb were
measured using low-pressure (LPI) as well as conventional low-volume 1-ACFM and high-volume
(HVI) cascade impactors. The activity size distribution of 214Pb and
212
Pb was largely associated with
submicron aerosols in the accumulation mode (0.08 to 2.0 μm). The activity median aerodynamic
diameter, AMAD varied from 0.10 to 0.37 μm (average 0.16 μm) for
0.25 μm (average 0.12 μm) for
212
214
Pb-aerosols and from 0.07 to
Pb-aerosols. The geometric standard deviation, σg averaged 2.86
and 2.97, respectively. The activity median aerodynamic diameter, AMAD of
210
Pb-aerosols varied
from 0.28 to 0.49 μm (average 0.37 μm) and the geometric standard deviation, σg varied from 1.6 to
2.1 (average 1.9). The activity size distribution of 214Pb-aerosols showed a small shift to larger particle
sizes relative to
212
Pb-aerosols. The larger median size of
214
Pb-aerosols was attributed to α-recoil
depletion of smaller aerosol particles following the decay of the aerosol-associated
214
218
Po. Subsequent
Pb condensation on all aerosol particles effectively enriches larger-sized aerosols. Pb-212 does not
undergo this recoil-driven redistribution. Even considering recoil following 214Po α-decay, the average
210
Pb-labeled aerosol grows by a factor of two during its atmospheric lifetime.
afternoon measurements indicated that similar size associations of
214
Early morning and
Pb occur, despite humidity
differences and the potential for fresh particle production in the afternoon. In estimating lifetimes of
radon decay product aerosols in ambient air, a mean residence time of about 8 days could be applied to
aerosol particles in the lower atmosphere below precipitation cloud levels.
28/45
Radon potential from soil measurement using a special method of sampling
Constantin Cosma1, Botond Papp1, Mircea Moldovan1, Victor Cosma1, Ciprian Cindea2, Liviu Suciu3
1) University Babes-Bolyai, Faculty of Environmental Science, 3400 Cluj-Napoca, Romania,
[email protected] , 2) Institute for Public Health, 3400- Cluj-Napoca, Romania, 3) ICPE –Bistrita SA ,
Bistrita, Romania
Soil-radon gas and/or its exhalation rate are used as indicators for some applications (uranium, indoor
radon, seismic activity, location of subsurface faults etc.) also in studies, where the main interest is the
field verification of radon transport models).
This work propose a versatile method for the soil radon sampling using a special manner of pumping.
The soil gas is passed through a column of charcoal by passive pumping. For this a 2 liters bottle
filled with water is coupled to the charcoal column and the flow of water through an adjustable hole
made at the bottom side of the bottle will assure a controlled gas flow from the soil. Firstly the steel
probe was emptied of the atmospheric air by extracting a first syringe volume which was evacuated in
atmosphere. The sampling time (depending of soil porosity) varied from 4 to 15 minutes thus an
average gas flow of 0.08 - 0.33 l/min was obtained. The advantage of this manner of sampling consist
in the fact that the small pumping depression (1-30 cm H2O) allows a "normal" migration of the soilgas to the bottom extremity of steel probe, thus, the probability of infiltration of atmospheric air near
the steel tube is much decreased.
Possible applications for the estimation of radon soil potential are discussed.
29/45
Analysis of the contribution of natural sources of radiation to the total dose received by
workers
Luis Santiago Quindós1, Carlos Sainz1*, Ismael Fuente1, Luis Quindós1, Jose Luis Gutierrez1, Jose
Luis Arteche2
1) RADON Group, Faculty of Medicine, University of Cantabria, c/Cardenal Herrera Oria s/n, 39011 Santander,
SPAIN, [email protected], 2) AEMET, State Meteorological Agency of Spain, c/Ricardo Lorenzo s.n, 39012
Santander, SPAIN
As singular case, workers with ionising radiation are receiving those coming from artificial and
natural sources. As in many other countries, there is a serious control by the national authorities,
Spanish Nuclear Safety Council, of the dose at work from artificial sources. Nevertheless, until the
publication of the European Basic Safety Standards Directive, 96/29/EURATOM, the old criteria
talking “above natural background” was widely used. This directive, included in the Spanish
legislation in July, 2001, BOE 178, shows the interest to take into account the use of natural
radionuclides at work establishing the criteria to evaluate the dose coming from these natural sources
in the Title VII of the Directive. The main objective of this work is to show the incidence of the
natural doses received at homes
with the dose received by workers of regulated radioactive
installations comparing both results. The social and economical implications of the results derived
from this research can be important in the practical application of the recommendations included in
the BOE 178 above mentioned.
30/45
Continuous Measurement of Geo-chemical Parameters in Aggressive Environment
Thomas Streil1, Veikko Oeser1, Manuel Ogena2
1) SARAD GmbH, Wiesbadener Str. 10, D-01159 Dresden, Germany, [email protected], 2) PNOC Energy
Development Corp. PNPC Complex, Merritt Road Fort Bonifacio, Makati City 1201, [email protected]
To measure precise longtime data from geochemical parameters for studies of deep fluid streams in
volcanic areas, hydro geological studies and reservoir management in geothermal fields robust and
high reliable measuring systems are necessary.
A progress in this field is presented in this paper with the development of a new versatile measuring
system called MEDAS (MEDAS – Modular Environmental Data Acquisition System) based on
experiences and recent results from different research groups. MEDAS is an innovative multiparameter station, which can continuously record as a function of time up to more than 100
geochemical and physical parameters suitable for many applications. A microcomputer system inside
the MEDAS handles data exchange, data management and control and it is connected to a modular
sensor system. The number of sensors and modules can be selected according to the needs at the
measuring sites.
The main problem was the shielding of the system against the aggressive environment and to develop
sensors, which survive in extreme acidic gases like in geothermal fields or in fumaroles. In the
presentation the system will be described the technical solutions for this big problemWith this system
it was possible to measure Radon and Thoron gas concentrations over longtime in from deep
reservoirs directly with high time resolution.
A MEDAS has been installed in four production wells in the Mahanagdong production sector of the
Leyte Geothermal Production Field located in the island of Leyte, central Philippines. This field is
chosen because: 1) it is the largest geothermal field in the Philippines with five separate power plants
with total installed capacity of about 700 MW, and 2) the area is bisected by the Philippine Fault, a
major left-lateral transcurrent fault similar to the San Andreas fault.
Results of long time measurement on Radon, Thoron and CO2 concentrations; gas flow, temperature
and humidity; water temperature and pH; the Redox potential and conductivity will be presented.
These parameters will be correlated with the historical and current data from the PNOC EDC
established monitoring set-up for seismicity, micro-gravity and precise levelling surveys, wellhead
pressure trends and well bore chemistry changes from monthly production sampling.
31/45
Efficient and sustainable production of geothermal energy requires constant monitoring of changes
occurring in the reservoir. These changes, which may result from mass extraction for production,
waste fluid injection for disposal and pressure support, and from natural geologic processes, are
usually manifested in the chemistry and physical characteristics of the wells. Experience has also
shown that these changes are related to the structure of the reservoir—the faults that transect the field
as well as smaller fractures contained in the reservoir rocks. Identification and evaluation of chemical
changes, and their correlation with the structural features, require among others the constant analysis
of hot brine and gases discharged by the wells.
Changes in water and gas chemistry, for example, can indicate: 1) lowering in the water level of the
reservoir, 2) invasion of cold and degassed re-injection fluids, 3) entry of shallow acidic steam
condensates and deep corrosive volcanic-related fluids, 4) precursor of an earthquake, etc. Any of
these changes can significantly alter the short- and long-term viability of the geothermal operation.
Hence, it is critical that up-to-date collection and analysis of water and gases be undertaken.
However, since almost all of the production wells are connected to the power plant, it is rarely
possible to disconnect the wells in order to collect samples for analysis because such disconnection
will result to shortfall in power generation. In addition, the process is time-consuming and significant
lapse is achieved from sample collection to the availability of the information. There is therefore a
pressing need for a continuous and on-line system of measuring chemical parameters in the field.
32/45
Ground Radon Variations and its Influence on Indoor Concentrations
Cemil Seyis1, Sedat İnan1, Thomas Streil2
1) TÜBİTAK Marmara Research Center, Earth and Marine Sciences Institute, Gebze-Kocaeli, Turkey,
[email protected] ; 2) SARAD GmbH, Wiesbadener Str. 10, D-01159 Dresden
Radon, the natural occuring radioactive gas is one of the most important sources of radioactivity that
adversely affects human health. The longer the exposion to radon, the higher probability of lung
cancer risk. Buildings, as closed environments are places where humans share most time of life and
the ground out leaking radon gas can accumulate. Therefore, it is very important to know dangerous
radon levels in houses.
Type of basement as well as the type of construction materials of the building, pressure-temperature
differences between house and ground, soil moisture levels and seasonal changes have effects on short
and long time indoor radon gas fluctuations. Hovewer the most important cause of all is the ground
radon emanation. Different ground radon levels mean different radon potential that can enter the
buildings.
The amount of radioactive radium in different lithologies and soils is the most important factor of
spatial variations of ground radon gas. Permability, porosity, fractures as well as organic content of the
soil layer determine the gas capture capacity of the soil which in return plays an important role on the
radon gas content. The higher emanation from a given lithology and higher radon sorption in the soil
result in increased levels of indoor radon.
Field measurments made with spot soil radon measurement device (Markus-10 – Gammadata Co.) and
conntinuous soil radon measurements (utilising Alpha Meter 611 –AlphaNuclear Co.) have shown that
radon level vary greatly based on local changes in basement geology (even in very short distances).
Moreover, properties of soil, existence of fissures-faults or geothermal activity can change the ground
radon amount on large scales. We have measured very high indoor radon levels using a continuous
measurement device (Doseman – Sarad GmbH) in places with high geothermal activity and/or nearby
faults regardless of the construction type.
Preliminary results of suggest that indoor radon levels depend mainly on type of basement rock as well
as existence of crack/fissure and type of soil cover. Type of buildings seems to have secondary and
meteological changes have only temporary effects.
33/45
A New Step in Seismological Studies in Turkey: Micro-Earthquake Observations
Onur Tan1, Semih Ergintav1, Yıldız İravul2, Sedat İnan1, Haluk Eyidoğan3, Ahmet Yörük1, Cengiz
Tapırdamaz1, Adil Tarancıoğlu1, Zümer Papuçcu1, Ali Cankurtaranlar1, Fatih Sevim1, Birgül Ödüm1,
Cem Açıkgöz1, Cem Göknil1, Ebru Tan1, Recai Kartal2, Kenan Yanık2
1) TÜBİTAK Marmara Research Center Earth and Marine Sciences Institute, Gebze, Kocaeli, Turkey.
[email protected] 2) Ministry of Public Works and Settlement General Directorate of Disaster Affairs,
Earthquake Research Department, Ankara. 3) İstanbul Technical University, Faculty of Mines, Department of
Geophysics, İstanbul, Turkey.
Although the facilities of the national seismograph networks in Turkey are improved in recent years, it
is not a sufficient level for a country suffered from earthquakes. Today, the earthquakes with M=2.53.0 can not be located precisely. On the other hand, smaller events are not locatable with the current
station distribution.
The sensitive locations, mechanisms and behaviors of the micro-earthquakes (ML>0.5) occurred on
the fault systems in Marmara, Aegean and East Anatolian regions are investigated within the
TURDEP (Multi-Disciplinary Earthquake Researches in High Risk Regions of Turkey Representing
Different Tectonic Regimes) project directed by TÜBİTAK Marmara Research Center Earth and
Marine Science Institute. There are more than 30 online broad-band seismic stations in each region to
observe micro-earthquake activity. Approximately 20000 earthquakes (ML>0.5) have been located
since September 2006 with average ±2 km horizontal uncertainties. The absolute locations are also
tried to improve using relative earthquake location methods (i.e. HypoDD double-difference
algorithm). The focal mechanism of the earthquakes (ML>3.0) are solved using first-motion polarities
and regional moment tensor methods routinely. The observations show that new earthquake clusters
and faulting properties which are not known before.
One of the main objectives of this first continuous earthquake observation of Turkey is to understand
the fault geometries and characteristics of the main fault segments that may be a risk for the populated
areas.
34/45
Earthquake History and Slip Rate of Sapanca-Akyazı Segment on Western Part of
North Anatolian Fault for the Past 1000 Years
Aynur Dikbaş1, 2, H. Serdar Akyüz3, Mustapha Meghraoui4, Matthieu Ferry5, Çağlar Yalçıner4, 6,
Cengiz Zabcı3, Volkan Karabacak4, Nafiye Kıyak5, Erhan Altunel6
1) TUBITAK Marmara Research Center, Earth and Marine Sciences Institute, TR-41470 Gebze-Kocaeli,
Turkey, [email protected], 2) Istanbul Technical University, Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, TR34469 Maslak-Istanbul, Turkey, 3) Istanbul Technical University, Faculty of Mines, Geology Department, TR34469 Maslak-Istanbul, Turkey, 4) EOST-Institut de Physique du Globe de Strasbourg, F-67084 Strasbourg,
France, 5) Geophysical Centre, University of Evora, PT-38043 Evora, Portugal, 6) Eskişehir Osmangazi
University, Faculty of Engineering and Architecture, Department of Geological Engineering, TR-26480
Eskisehir, Turkey, 7) Işık University, Physics Department, TR-34398 Maslak-İstanbul, Turkey
The earthquake history of the eastern Marmara region is limited by the historical documents which
indicate the felt area mostly as İstanbul and sometimes as İzmit. It is hard to determine the earthquakes
that caused surface rupture in the east of İzmit only by searching the historical documents. There is no
paleoseismological data in this part of North Anatolian Fault and research of paleoseismological data
is important for understanding the earthquake history of the region. For this purpose, three sites on
Sapanca-Akyazı segment were chosen for paleosismological investigations. Sapanca-Akyazı segment
is one of the five segments ruptured on 17 August 1999 earthquake and the maximum right-lateral
displacement (5,2 m.) was measured on this segment. It trends along 25 km. between the Lake
Sapanca and Akyazı town with a strike of N85W. Paleoseismological investigations revealed that the
earthquakes of 27 May 1719 and 1 October 1567, and an earthquake which happened around year
1000 had ruptured the segment.
One the west of Sakarya river, an old terrace riser of the river is visible at the surface on the south of
the fault zone and can not be observed on the northern part. The northern part was investigated by
GPR (Ground Penetrating Radar) to check if the continuation of the riser was buried due to vertical
movement on the northern part, and it is determined in the GPR profile. The cumulative displacement
of the riser is measured as 18,5±0,5 m. with teodolite. The OSL dating of the terrace riser revealed a
slip-rate of 21.9±3 mm/year on the region for last 1000 years.
35/45
MULTI-DISCIPLINARY EARTHQUAKE RESEARCHES IN TURKEY: Geochemical
Precursors of Earthquakes Occurring in Different Tectonic Regimes
Sedat İnan1, Semih Ergintav1, Bekir Tüzel2, Yıldız İravul2, Ruhi Saatçılar3,1 , Cemil Seyis1, Onur Tan1,
Şakir Şimşek4, Kadriye Ertekin5, Aynur Dikbaş1, Ahmet Yörük1, Hakan Yakan1, Furkan Kulak1
1) TÜBİTAK Marmara Research Center, Earth and Marine Sciences Institute, Gebze-Kocaeli, Turkey,
[email protected]; 2) General Directorate of Disasters Affairs of Turkey, Department of Earthquake
Research, Ankara-Turkey, 3) Sakarya University, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Geophysical
Engineering, Esentepe, Adapazarı-Turkey, 4) Hacettepe University, Faculty of Engineering, Department of
Geological Engineering, Beytepe- Ankara, Turkey, 5) Dokuz Eylül University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences,
Department of Chemistry, İzmir-Turkey
The Turkish Scientific and Technological Research Council (TÜBİTAK) has recently granted 12
million USD for a multi-disciplinary and multi-lateral earthquake research project (TÜRDEP) that will
continue for four years. The project started in November 2005 and will be completed by November
2009. The Earth and Marine Sciences Institute of the Marmara Research Center (MRC) of TÜBİTAK
is leading and coordinating the multi-lateral project involving the Ministry of Construction and
Settlement’s General Directorate of Disaster Affairs and 14 Universities* (Figure 1).
Geochemical monitoring (e.g., Physical properties and the chemical composition of warm and hot
spring waters as well as soil radon concentrations) have been realized continuously since early 2007 in
different tectonic regimes in Turkey, alongside micro-seismological observations, providing a multidisciplinary approach. Marmara region as well as Aegean Extensional Province are seismically very
active and more than 20 moderate earthquakes with Richter Magnitude (ML) ≥ 4.0 (between 4.0 and
5.0) have occurred in these regions During the monitoring period. Micro-seismological monitoring
showed no foreshock activity prior to these earthquakes yet it provided good control for continuous
geochemical monitoring. By contrast, hydro-geochemical have been recorded in the electrical
conductivity and ion concentrations of some spring waters, each lasting for weeks. Precursory
anomalies in soil radon have been recorded before earthquakes associated strike-slip faults. On the
other hand, some spring waters as well as soil radon stations located within the deformation zones of
impending earthquakes did also not show anomalies. The reason for this miscorrelation is interpreted
to be due to discontinuities between the focal zones and the monitoring sites leading to stress/strain
anisotropies.
*
Cooperating universities, in alphabetical order, are Boğaziçi University, Cumhuriyet University,
Çukurova University, Dicle University, Dokuz Eylül University, Ege University, Eskişehir
Osmangazi University, Fırat University, Hacettepe University, İnönü University, Istanbul
Technical University, Süleyman Demirel University, Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam University, and
Yıldız Technical University
36/45
Figure 1. Locations of the established and continuously-run monitoring stations under the scope of the project.
MR=Marmara Region, AES=Aegean Extensional System, ZBSZ=Zagros Bitlis Suture Zone, NAFS=North
Anatolian Fault System, EAFS= East Anatolian Fault System. Arrow head points to the epicenter of the Izmit
earthquake of 17 August 1999 (Mw=7.4).
37/45
POSTER PRESENTATIONS
Microzonation and Disaster Risk Mitigation Studies of
İstanbul Metropolitan Municipality
Mahmut BAŞ, Hikmet KARAOĞLU, Ahmet Emre BASMACI
İstanbul Metropolitan Municipality Directorate of Earthquake and Ground Analysis. Sarachane / İstanbul
TURKEY; [email protected], http://www.ibb.gov.tr/en-US/SubSites/IstanbulEarthquake/
İstanbul Metropolitan Municipality Directorate of Earthquake and Ground Analysis carries out
assessment of possible risks and development of prevention strategies before an earthquake that may
occure in İstanbul where it is regarded to be the financial, commercial, educational and industrial
center of Turkey. Earthquake risk analysis, Earthquake Master Plan and microzonation studies are
conducted to make İstanbul an earthquake safe city. Furthermore, risk of all building inventory and
infrastructures are being determined and rehabilitated within the boundary of our authorization
framework. Social and economical studies have been performed to prepare our city against
earthquakes. It is an underlined fact in İstanbul Earthquake Master Plan that occurance of earthquakes
can not be prevented but damages and losses can be mitigated by the application of planning and
engineering tools. Microzonation is one of the best sound practise specifically serves for urban
transformation and infrastructure projects that are put into practise step by step within the districts
where earthquake and building risks are high as an outcome of Earthquake Master Plan.
Microzonation work follows prioritization of areas in terms of high population density and buildings
with risky local soil conditions. The aim of microzonation is to produce a 1/2000 scale earthquake
hazard map that is related to land suitability concept which constitues a basis for the reconstruction
plans. Microzonation is an engineering approach with a strong scientific basis in determination of
areas with different potential of hazard and it provides planning suggestions to urban transformation
and development . Project within an area of 182 km2 is completed at the southern part of the European
side of İstanbul and going on at the Asian side of İstanbul with an area of 458 km2. The project at the
Southwestern section of İstanbul with an area of 700 km2 will be initiated. Project area is divided into
250m cells. Ground shaking, liquefaction, consolidation, landslide, flooding, surface faulting hazards
are classified and mapped for each cell. After the analysis of geological, geotechnical and geophysical
measurments and evaluation: Earthquake Hazard, Tsunami Hazard, Slope, Engineering Geology,
Ground Water Level, Fundamental Period, Faulting, Ground shaking, Inundation, Shear Wave
Velocity and Site Classification Maps are obtained. “Land Suitability Map” is derived from the
combination of inputs using multi-hazard approach.
Microzonation is an urban planning tool which consists of multi-hazard risk analysis findings from
many engineering disciplines. Results are analysed with a hollistic approach. Methodology is used in
planning of the location of residential housing areas, risk identification in urban transformation, routes
of tunnels and bridges, pheasibility of viaducts and engineering structures.
38/45
General Directorate Of Disaster Affairs Earthquake Research Department
Bekir Tüzel, Yıldız İravul, Murat Nurlu, Cahit Kocaman
Turkish Republic, Ministry of Public Works and Settlement, General Directorate of Disaster Affairs, Earthquake
Research Department, Eskişehir Yolu 10. km, 06530, Lodumlu, Ankara, Türkiye, [email protected]
Constitute national and international collabration , mutual projects and programmes on disaster
reduction, present the country on this projects,put into practice the results of these studies.
Perform studies on earthquake disaster reduction, investigate earthquake and their effects, according to
the results of these studies, prepare earthquake catalogs and seismic hazard maps and improve
Establishment of the National Seimic Network and operate, prepare buildings codes, improve
earthquake resistant building techniques and identify the principles of the projects,develope
methodologies on maintanance and rein forcement for damaged buildings.
Investigate and determine all necessary measures to mitigate and prevent disaster losses, identify base
necessities and politics,
Investigate and study disaster prone areas determining the potential disaster areas, perform damage
assessment studies after disasters, site selection for resettlement areas, perform and assist to land use
planning studies, beneficiary and loanning studies, maintain temporary and permanent hausing taking
the necessary precautions in short and long term, for this purpose to perform studies for the production
and stock of the necessary structural elements.
Earthquake Research Department is constitued by three sections;
•
Seismology Section
•
Laboratory Section,
•
Earthquake Engineering Section
Establishment and operation of the national seismic Network, preparation of the microzoning map and
building code for the earthquake prone regions are included in the main duties of
Earthquake Engineering Section; The scope of work of the Earthquake Engineering Section is to
determine and develope basic principles of earthquake resistant design for construction.
Laboratory Section; The projects related to this section are Earthquake Disaster Prevention Research
, Hazard and Risk Determination Project, Microzoning Project, National Disaster Archieve System.
Seismology Section; In order to mitigate disaster losses, it is necessary to establish an effective
disaster management and risk system. The fist step of the managment is contitued by preparedness
39/45
studies before the earthquake (disaster). For the disaster and risk determination it is necessary to have
an seismological observation network.
For this purpose, in the frame of National Seismic Network, To install and operate the seismic
stations, To evaluate and archieve earthquake data, To inform the public and scientific instituions, To
provide the establishment of the early warning systems and emergency Aid networks in the country
wide scale, To establish and operate local earthquake recording systems and to evaluate tje earthquake
records, To carry out geological and geophysical investigations, To study on earthquake prediction
research.
40/45
National Seismic Network System of Turkey
Sami Zünbül, Filiz Tuba Kadirioğlu, Nalan Holoğlu, Recai F. Kartal, Tuğbay Kılıç, Kenan Yanık,
Yıldız İravul, Bekir Tüzel
Turkish Republic, Ministry of Public Works and Settlement, General Directorate of Disaster Affairs, Earthquake
Research Department, Eskişehir Yolu 10. km, 06530, Lodumlu, Ankara, Türkiye, [email protected]
In order to mitigate disaster losses, it is necessary to establish an effective disaster management and
risk system. The first step of the management is constituted by preparedness studies before the
earthquake (disaster). In order to determinate disaster and risk information it is necessary to have a
seismological observation network.
Due to the monitoring of the earhquakes in the country-wide scale, recording, evaluation, archieving
and to inform to the public autority, the project named “Development of the National Seismic
Network Project-USAG” has been started. 6 Three Component Short Period, 63 Broad-band, 13 One
Component Short Period stations, 65 Local Network- Broad-band, and 247 accelerometers have been
operated in the frame of this project. All of the stations transmit continuously their signal to the ERD
(Earthquake Research Department) seismic data center in Ankara. Capability of the network is to
determine an earthquake which is minimum local magnitude ML= 2.8 generally, in some region local
magnitude threshold is ML=1.5 (the places where the stations are concentrated).
Earthquake activity in Turkey and surrounding region has been observed 7 days / 24 hours, in ERD
data center in Ankara. After the manuel location of an earthquake, If the magnitude is over 4.0,
system sends to SMS message automaticaly to the authorized people and immediately press, public
and national-local crisis center, scientific institutions are informed by fax and e-mail. Data exchange
has been carried out to EMSC-CSEM.
During the İnstallation of the broad-band stations, the seismotectonics of the region has been taken
into consideration. Earthqauke record stations are concentrated at the most important fault zones in
Turkey; North Anatolian Fault System, East Anatolian Fault System, Bitlis Overlap Belt and Aegean
Graben (or opening) System.
After 1999 İzmit and Düzce earthquakes, the number of the seismic stations in Turkey have been
increased each passing year. In this study, a brief information about the developments of National
Seismic Network System of Turkey will be given and in the light of these developments, recent
earthquake activity in Turkey with mag. =>5.0 will be presented.
41/45
Figure 1. National Seismic Network of Turkey.(Weak Ground Motion)
Figure 2. National Strong Ground Motion Network of Turkey
42/45
Figure 3. Earthquake activity of Turkey 2000 than 2008 (M ≥ 5)
43/45
A starting point for scientific evaluations: The quality of results
A method for volcanic gas analyses
Antonio Caprai
Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources, National Council of Research - Pisa, Italy, [email protected]
Chemical analyses of volcanic, geothermal and low enthalpy fluids are carried on to investigate
volatile evolution. A common problem is to minimize sampling and analytical errors. It depends on
the experience of operator, from the quality of analytical instrumentation and the quality of methods in
use.
Performing analytical determinations, geochemists often encounter problems right from the stages of
sampling. Methodologies for fluid collection are varied and, at times, rather improvised.
Sometimes one’s can have problems in analyzing residual gases because of small amount of gas
and/or low level of pressure inside the “Giggenbach bottles”.
A common qualitative and quantitative gas composition analysis technique is the gaschromatographic
analysis. It is used in research laboratories and in the field of environment pollutants as well as for the
analysis of volcanic and geothermal gases. The gaschromatographic technique is based on the
principle that the components of a gas mixture split themselves in a different way between two phases
according to affinity with each phase. At the outlet of the column a detector is arranged to allow
qualitatively and quantitatively gas analysing. A particularly critical step of the analysis is the
calibration of the instrument that consists of tracing a calibration curve. The calibration of the
instrument is done by bringing in the column different "standards", i.e. samples of gas where the
partial pressure of the examined gas is known. The data obtained are used for tracing the calibration
curve through which the unknown concentration of the solution can be easily calculated. A
concentration exists beyond which the response of the detector is not any more linear. Normally, an
apparatus for gaschromatographic analysis of a gaseous mixture requires many working solutions at
different concentrations to obtain a reliable calibration curve.
The invented apparatus solve some questions relatively to linear response of detector and simplify the
standardization. In particular, the range of predetermined pressures corresponds to pressure values at
which the response of the detector is linear and the calibration of the instrument of analysis is more
accurate and simplified.
44/45
1 - Giggenbach W. F., Tedesco, Sulistiyo, Caprai, Cioni, Favara, Fischer, Hirabayashi, Korzhinsky,
Martini, Menyailov, Shinohara, 2001 – Evaluations of results fro the fourth and fifth IAVCEI field
workshop on volcanic gases, Vulcano Island, Italy and Java, Indonesia. Journal of Volcanology and
Geothermal Research. Vol. 108, 17 pp., 157-172
2 - D’Amore F., Krajca, Michard, Nuti, Olaffson, Paces, Shen Zhaoli, Tong Wei, Zhang Zhifei, 1991 –
Fluid Sampling for Geothermal Prospecting. UNITAR/UNDP publications, Man. 11, pp. 92.
4 - Lyberopoulou V., Mussi, Caprai 1992 – Training stage by Vera Lyberopoulou on geothermal and
volcanic gas analyses, within the framework of the IAEA. Internal report I.G.G.
45/45

International Geo-Hazards Research Symposium

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