hGH phase4

Welcome Address
Dr. Temel Kotil
President of AEA, CEO of Turkish Airlines
Istanbul, 17 October 2014
AEA MEMBERS: TO THE POWER OF 30
AEA’S STRATEGIC PARTNERS
AEA AIRLINES’ TRAFFIC – AN ENGINE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH
420
400 mill
million passengers
Transported by all AEA member airlines, estimated result annual 2014
13
million more
Estimated growth in passenger numbers,
transported by all AEA member airlines,
2014 compared to 2013
200 mill
100 mill.
Passengers
5.5
million tonnes of cargo
Transported by all AEA member airlines, estimated result annual 2014
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
AEA AIRLINES ARE INVESTING
745
new aircraft on order
Source: Ascend, status as at 10/2014
73
US$
bn
value of investment
Source: Ascend, status as at 10/2014, value is expressed in Ascend full life base values
AEA AIRLINES CREATE EUROPEAN EMPLOYMENT
370,000
jobs
Direct employment created by AEA member airlines, 2013
AEA AIRLINES’ CONTRIBUTION TO EUROPEAN CONNECTIVITY
620 destinations
Source: AEA member airlines’ network, Innovata, June 2014
160 countries
Source: AEA member airlines’ network, Innovata, June 2014
+150 city-pairs
Source: AEA member airlines’ network, Innovata, June 2014 vs June 2013
AEA IS ACTIVELY DEALING WITH CHALLENGES
AEA COMMUNICATION
YOUR AEA TEAM …
…. thanks you
for your Support
PASSENGER TRAFFIC FLOW DEVELOPMENT
Total Scheduled Revenue Passenger-Kilometers
To/From and Intra Regions (trillions)
RPK
(2014F)
Total Revenue
(2014F)
Schd. Passenger
(2014F)
6.1
Trillion
3.3
Billion
745
Billion USD
(2013 -2014
5.8% growth)
(2013 -2014
5.6% growth)
(2013 -2014
5.3% growth)
2013
2033
7.4
4.6
3.9
2.0
2.2
2.0
0.6
Europe
2.2
1.9
Asia Pacific
0.3
0.9
0.6
North America
Source: Boeing Current Market Outlook 2013-2033, IATA Industry Financial Forecast
March 2014
11
Latin America
Africa
Middle East
DRIVING THE CENTER OF GRAVITY OF TRAFFIC TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
Until recently, the airline industry was
viewed as the center of Europe
After 2020, the industry will move to the center to the East
Cities,like Istanbul, Doha, Abu Dhabi and Dubai, will play a key role as
centers of the new attraction
Source: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2012
Geographic centre of gravity of departing/arriving/connecting passengers per city
Traffic as month of September; estimates for historic passenger derived from offered seats; respective centres of gravity as
median of city coordinates weighted by passenger traffic
12
MARKET SHARE OF AIRLINES BY REGION
•
•
Market share of European carriers has been going steady.
But the picture may change in the future: market share can be lost to Asian and Middle Eastern
carriers.
Africa
Asia/Southwest Pacific
Europe
Latin America
Middle East
North America
100%
90%
80% 38% 37%
36%
36%
35%
35%
33%
32%
31%
60% 3%
5%
3%
5%
4%
5%
4%
4%
29%
28%
27%
26%
8%
5%
4%
6%
5%
7%
5%
7%
5%
5%
6%
4%
7%
5%
5%
5%
9%
5%
28%
29%
28%
27%
27%
27%
27%
70%
3%
5%
30%
50%
18%
12%
7%
22%
27%
26%
27%
27%
27%
27%
26%
27%
25%
27%
27%
28%
28%
28%
29%
30%
30%
30%
31%
34%
25%
0% 2%
2000
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
3%
2%
2%
2%
3%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
40% 26%
30%
20%
10%
Source: 2000-2013 data is drived from IATA Carrier Tracker Report, 2032 values are from Airbus 2013 GMF.
13
…
…
2032
PICTURE OF TODAY AND TOMORROW, AIRPORT GROWTHS
Millions
Asia Pasific & Middle East airports has been growing at least 2 times faster than European
airports.
2013 Passenger Number
•
ATL
100
PEK, 160 mil.
90
80
ORD
HND LHR
70
CDG DFW
60
DENJFK
DUB
DXB
HKG
FRA
BKK
SIN
CAN
IST
CGK
PVGKUL
AMS
SFO CLT
MIA
50
MAD
LAX
ICN
PHX
MUCSYD
SHA
EWR MCO
40
DEL GRU
MNL
DTW
BCN
FCO
SEA
NRT
MEL
TPE
PHL
SZX
LGW
CPH BOS MEX
30
ZRH OSL
FLL
DME
BOM
LGA
IAD
AYT
HGH
PMI BRU VIE BNEDUS
GMP
20
DCA MDW
MAN CAI JNB
CMN
10
CPT
CTU
KMG
BOG
SVO
JED
XIY
DOH
RUH
AUH
0
-5%
0%
Afrika
Africa
5%
Asya
AsiaPasifik
Pasific
10%
Avrupa
Europe
L.L.Amerika
America
15%
20%
2008-2013 Annual Passenger Growth (CAGR)
Ortadoğu
Middle East
Buble width: Forecasted 2021 airport passengers
Growth rates are forecast by our analyst team based on ACI 2012 country passenger forecast, last 10
year growth rate of airports, regional growth expectations of Airbus&boeing
14
N.
America
K. Amerika
INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER GROWTH
•
Although growth rate of international passengers at European airports will be lower than the
rest of the world, Europe will still have the biggest international passenger share.
International Passenger Growth Regionally (2011 - 2031)
2,500
Europe
2031 Passenger Number
2,000
Asia - Pasific
1,500
Average
1,000
North America
Latin America
500
0
2.5%
Middle East
Africa
3.0%
3.5%
*The diameter of spheres show extra passenger
number in 2031 compare to 2011
Source: ACI 2012-2031 Traffic Forecast
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
2011-2031 Annual Average Growth (CAGR)
15
LOBBYING CHALLENGE
SOME MAJOR TOPICS
Noise
AEA IS ACTIVELY DEALING WITH CHALLENGES
WHO WE ARE
Network
Aircraft
Budget
Human Capital
Passenger / Our Boss
AIRLINES VS. REGULATIONS
ABOUT TURKISH AIRLINES
30%
60
Turkish Airlines’ Passenger
Numbers
48.1
32.7
20
16.9
14
10
16
10.3 10.4
5
5
5
11.9
6
6
5
7
7
8
9
10
12
23%
23%
17%
15% 15%
13%
12p
32
9%
36
6%
6%
6%
5%
28
17%
14%
6%
4%
5%
2%
26
2%
0%
23
22.6
19%
19%
10%
29.1
25.1
27%
46
15%
39
19.7
19%
20%
40
30
25%
55.6
2004 – 2014:
CAGR=17%
50
TK Vs. World RPK
Growth %
56
-2%
-5%
18
-4%
16
13
-1%
-3%
World RPK Growth
THY RPK Growth
Log. (World RPK Growth)
Log. (THY RPK Growth)
2003 – 2013 Passenger Growth Rates
16
14 15
12
11
10
20
363%
23
6
258%
0
Domestic
Source: IATA, DHMI
International
2014F
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
-4
76%
Total
world
21
tr
tk
5% 6%
AVIATION IN TURKEY
Network Coverage
# of aircraft
162 in 2003, with an
increase of %172, reached
to
441today.
Revenue
$2.2 billion in 2003,
$21 billion in 2013.
International passenger number
25.3 million in 2003,
will reach to 81 million in
2014.
# of airports
26 in 2003,
52 in 2014 with
increase of %100.
3. AIRPORT IN ISTANBUL
76.5 km2 Area
Third Airport
3rd Bridge
500 Aircraft Park Positions
Black Sea
6 Runways
Istanbul
4 Terminals
150 million
PASSENGERS CAPACITY (Phase4)
A candidate for
Atatürk International
Airport
Sabiha Gökçen
3rd Biggest (After Phase 1) & Biggest (After All Phases) in the World
23
Enjoy your stay in Istanbul
Dr. Temel Kotil
President of the Association of European Airlines &
CEO of Turkish Airlines