Agenda - Doğuş Otomotiv

Doğuş Otomotiv
April, 2009
Agenda
•
Doğuş Group
•
Doğuş Otomotiv
•
Macroeconomic Outlook
•
Automotive Market
•
Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results
•
New Projects
•
Expectations
•
Appendix
2
Group Structure
Financial
Services
Automotive
Construction
Media
Tourism &
Leisure
Real Estate
Energy
Corporate Social Responsibility
3
Agenda
•
Doğuş Group
•
Doğuş Otomotiv
•
Macroeconomic Outlook
•
Automotive Market
•
Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results
•
New Projects
•
Expectations
•
Appendix
4
Presence in Every Link of Automotive Value Chain
DOAS produces, finances, sells, rents, insures,
services, repairs and inspects
5
Widest Retail & Services Network in Turkey
Approx. 500 customer points, widest among the competitors
(*) DOAS brands, including VW, Audi, Porsche, Scania, Seat, Krone, VW Marine, Scania Marine, Skoda as of end-2008
6
Success Story of DOAS
Bugatti
representative
Partnership with LeasePlan in
fleet rental
Porsche Dealership in
Lausanne
Car park more than 650K units
Krone & Meiller Production
Agreements
TÜV
TURK
IPO
OTO-FIX
Doğuş Group
established
subsidiaries for
distributing VW, Audi
& Porsche
Seat & Skoda
contract signed
(Partnership
with Yūce Oto)
Lamborghini LOI
Krone contract
signed
Bentley LOI
JV in consumer
financing with
VW Financial
Services AG
Scania contract
signed
Meiller Distribution
Thermoking
Distribution
VW Marine
Engines
Used car
operations
established
Merger of automotive
companies under
DOAS
M/S:Market Share
M/S: 12.0%
M/S: 0.5%
M/S: 10.6%
M/S: 5.8%
1993 1994 1995 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000 2001 2002
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
After Dogus Otomotiv became the sole importer and distributor of VW brand vehicles in Turkey, VW7
brands’ market share increased from 0.5% in 1993 to 12% in 2005
Key Strengths of DOAS
Leader in import market in Turkey with 18% m/s among c. 30 pure importers
One-stop shopping concept showroom, after sales services, consumer financing,
insurance
Well-positioned multi-brand products 15 different brands
Creating its own brands DOD, Oto-fix
Youngest fleet in the market with new launches every year, has more than 75 models
Widespread network and customer base, widest network with c.500 customer points
Customer focus, close relations with customers result in loyalty to the brands
Well-equipped IT infrastructure
Advanced financial risk management systems daily monitoring of the FX position
Profit oriented growth strategy profitability always kept without losing market share
8
DOAS’ Position in the Market - 2008
LCV
PV
Passat is the segment leader
VW LCVs are the market leader in imports,
#3 in total market
Golf is #2 in its segment
VW PVs ranked 7th in the market
HCV
Scania is the market leader in import with 9.4% m/s
Krone is the best selling import trailer with 12.0% m/s
Luxury Segment
12 Bentleys, 9 Lamborghinis sold in 2008
Audi is the leader of its segment
Porsche Cayenne is segment leader of gasoline SUV segment
Porsche is the best selling brand of luxury sport
segment
9
Recent Launches
Volkswagen PV
Volkswagen LCV
Audi
Porsche
Seat
Bentley
Lamborghini
Scania
Krone
Tiguan, Passat Coupe, Scirocco, New Golf
Caddy Maxi, Caddy Life, Transporter Sportsline, Caravelle Limited Edition
A4, A4 Avant, A3 Cabrio, A3 (face lift), RS6
Cayenne GTS, 911 GT2, Carrera(facelift), Boxster(facelift), Cayman(facelift)
Altea Freetrack, New Ibiza, Leon (face lift)
Continental Flying Spur, Continental GT/GTC, Arnage T
Gallardo
G series
Cooliner Duoplex
10
Agenda
•
Doğuş Group
•
Doğuş Otomotiv
•
Macroeconomic Outlook
•
Automotive Market
•
Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results
•
New Projects
•
Expectations
•
Appendix
11
Current Macroeconomic Outlook
Structural improvements in Turkish economy (social security reform, tax reform, banking sector
restructuring, independent central bank, increased transparency in fiscal accounts)
Tight fiscal policy (though relatively looser compared to past years)
Relations with IMF to continue
Ongoing disinflation efforts (Annual CPI at 7.9% as of end - March ‘09)
Reforms on EU convergence
C/A deficit at concerning level (currently financable via FDI and portfolio investments)
Net FDI inflow declines (In 2008, net FDI realized at US$ 17.7bn, down by 20% YoY)
Global credit crunch
Shrinkage in major economies
Increasing risk aversion
12
Macroeconomic Indicators
YoY Inflation (%)
Nominal Exchange Rates
USD/TRY
35%
2.30
30%
2.10
25%
EUR/TRY
Basket(0,5USD+0,5EUR)
2.23
1.95
1.90
20%
1.70
15%
10%
7.89%
1.50
5%
3.46%
1.30
0%
1.68
Source: TURKSTAT
Mar-09
Nov-08
Jul-08
Mar-08
Nov-07
Mar-07
Mar-06
Mar-05
Annual PPI
Mar-04
Annual CPI
Mar-03
M
ay
-0
3
O
ct
-0
3
M
ar
-0
4
Au
g04
Ja
n05
Ju
n05
N
ov
-0
5
Ap
r06
Se
p06
Fe
b07
Ju
l-0
7
D
ec
-0
7
M
ay
-0
8
O
ct
-0
8
M
ar
-0
9
1.10
Source: CBT, Garanti Bank
Benchmark & O/N Interest Rates (%)
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
13.51%
10.0%
11.1%
Source: CBT, ISE
Mar-03
Jun-03
Sep-03
Dec-03
Mar-04
Jun-04
Sep-04
Dec-04
Mar-05
Jun-05
Sep-05
Dec-05
Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
0.0%
Benchmark Int. Rates (compound, %)
O/N Int. Rates (compound,%)
13
200
187
140
110
80
126
Source: TURKSTAT
USD
4.25
3.75
3.25
2.25
1.75
1.79
1.25
0.75
1.12
0.25
0.99
Ja
n
Fe -0 7
b
M -07
a
Ap r -07
r
M - 07
ay
J u -07
nJu 0 7
Au l- 0
g 7
Se -07
p
O -07
ct
N -07
ov
D -07
ec
J a -07
n
Fe -0 8
bM 08
a
Ap r -08
r
M - 08
ay
J u -08
nJu 0 8
Au l- 0
g 8
Se -08
p
O -08
ct
N -08
ov
D -08
ec
J a -08
n
Fe -0 9
b09
170
Nov-08
Feb-09
May-08
Aug-08
Aug-07
Nov-07
Feb-08
EURO
Feb-07
May-07
TRY
Aug-06
Nov-06
Exports
Feb-06
May-06
Aug-05
Nov-05
230
Feb-05
May-05
May-04
Aug-04
Nov-04
Nov-03
Feb-04
May-03
Aug-03
Mar-03
Jun-03
Sep-03
Dec-03
Mar-04
Jun-04
Sep-04
Dec-04
Mar-05
Jun-05
Sep-05
Dec-05
Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Macroeconomic Indicators
Foreign Trade Volume (US$bn)
FDI Inflows in OECD Countries (US$bn)
Imports
2003
50
5
20
0
Slovak Rep.
Auto Loan Rates (%)
Hungary
80.00
2004
Czech
Republic
2005
2006
2007
25
20
15
10
Poland
Turkey
Mexico
Source: OECD Trends and Recent Developments in FDI Report
Consumer Confidence Index
110.00
100.00
2.75
90.00
74.0
70.00
60.00
Source: VDF
Source: TURKSTAT
14
Agenda
•
Doğuş Group
•
Doğuş Otomotiv
•
Macroeconomic Outlook
•
Automotive Market
•
Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results
•
New Projects
•
Expectations
•
Appendix
15
Turkish Automotive Market Outlook
Huge upside potential in the domestic market...
Approx. 16mn more vehicles need to be sold in Turkey to reach the level of Bulgaria
Vehicle Ownership per 1,000 inhabitants (PV+LCV)
138
Turkey
361
Bulgaria
391
Poland
510
Greece
529
EU Average
575
France
576
UK
604
Germany
685
Italy
818
USA
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Source: OSD (2007)
16
Turkish Automotive Market Outlook
Turkish Automotive Market (units)
900,000
725,672
800,000
652,877
700,000
600,000
635,087
503,492 456,272
500,000
2000&2001
Economic crisis
400,000
300,000
Effects of
global crisis
767,443
388,602
323,309
393,888
Russia crisis
200,000
100,000
179,822
618,770
Turbulence in
global markets
July 2007
elections
516,395
300-350,000
172,042
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009E
17% YoY decrease in total market (PV, LCV, HCV) in 2008
17
2008 Market Review
2007
-17%
2008
619K
600,000
-15%
516K
500,000
400,000
-19%
359K
307K
300,000
233K
189K
200,000
100,000
-23%
26K
20K
0
PV
LCV
HCV
TOTAL
2007
Others
22%
2008
Ford
17%
Others
27%
Renault
14%
Renault
15%
Toyota
5%
Toyota
5%
Peugeot
4%
Opel
6%
Hyundai
6%
Ford
15%
Fiat
13%
DOAS
11%
Peugeot
4%
Opel
6% Hyundai
7%
DOAS
11%
Fiat
12%
18
DOAS Sales Performance
WHOLESALES (unit)
VW
VW PV
3M09
3M08
YoY
2008
2007
YoY
7,810
11,014
-29%
40,454
53,779
-25%
6,161
5,562
11%
21,485
26,110
-18%
1,649
5,452
-70%
18,969
27,669
-31%
AUDI
900
1,074
-16%
5,647
5,898
-4%
PORSCHE
59
29
103%
157
218
-28%
BENTLEY
2
4
-50%
12
19
-37%
LAMBORGHINI
1
0
-
9
3
200%
SEAT
579
971
-40%
2,874
3,426
-16%
SKODA
950
949
0%
3,558
5,291
-33%
SCANIA
207
589
-65%
1,894
2,174
-13%
KRONE
39
136
-71%
518
811
-36%
MEILLER
7
20
-65%
184
70
163%
10,554
14,786
-29%
55,307
71,689
-23%
PV
65,594
76,124
-14%
307,214
359,416
-15%
LCV
26,572
50,015
-47%
188,954
232,971
-19%
HCV
1,729
5,043
-66%
20,227
26,383
-23%
93,895
131,182
-28%
516,395
618,770
-17%
13.2%
11.3%
11.0%
11.4%
LCV
6.2%
10.9%
10.0%
11.9%
HCV
12.0%
11.7%
9.4%
8.2%
TOTAL
11.2%
11.2%
10.6%
11.4%
VW LCV
TOTAL
Market Size
TOTAL
DOAS Market Share
PV
Source: ODD, DOAS
19
Agenda
•
Doğuş Group
•
Doğuş Otomotiv
•
Macroeconomic Outlook
•
Automotive Market
•
Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results
•
New Projects
•
Expectations
•
Appendix
20
DOAS Headline Figures - I
Vehicle Sales Volume
2008
2007
YoY ch.
Unit sales
55,307
71,690
-23%
2nd hand sales
13,125
13,024
1%
P&L (IFRS, US$ mn)
2008
2007
YoY ch.
Revenues
1,658
1,979
-16%
225
273
-18%
13.6%
13.8%
-
14.9
71.2
-79%
0.9%
3.6%
-
29.7
85.3
-65%
1.8%
4.3%
-
(87)
49.4
-276%
(-5.2%)
2.5%
-
Gross Profit
Gross Margin
Operating Profit
Operating Margin
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
Net Profit
Net Margin
21
DOAS Headline Figures - II
BS (IFRS, US$ mn)
31-Dec-2008
31-Dec-2007
Ch.
Total Assets
955
996
-4%
Shareholders' Equity
232
467
-50%
Capital Expenditures
46
88
-48%
(157)
(113)
-39%
Receivable Turnover
18
21
-14%
Inventory Turnover
129
51
153%
Payable Turnover
146
55
165%
Net Cash (Debt)
Turnovers (days)
22
Agenda
•
Doğuş Group
•
Doğuş Otomotiv
•
Macroeconomic Outlook
•
Automotive Market
•
Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results
•
New Projects
•
Expectations
•
Appendix
23
Trailer Production with Krone
• Krone is leader of the import market with 45% market share (12% in
total, ranking 4th)
• Expansion of authorized dealership and service network in 2007
• Initial capacity will be 5,000 and increased to 10,000 after 1st year
• 90% of production will be diverted to exports.
• Estimated capex is US$20 mn for 49% share
24
Tipper Production with Meiller
•
Dogus Otomotiv has become the main exclusive importer and distributor of of the
Meiller brand in Turkey in February 2007.
•
As per the Letter of Intent (LoI) signed in October 2007, Dogus Otomotiv and Meiller
formed a joint venture (JV) company
•
The JV is manufacturing Meiller brand tippers and semi-trailer tippers in Turkey.
•
In the newly established JV company Dogus Otomotiv holds 49% stake, while the
remaining 51% is owned by Meiller.
•
The plant has become operational in 1Q08, with 3,000 units annual production
capacity.
•
Almost 80% of the production will be exported.
•
Dogus Otomotiv and Meiller have invested a total EUR10mn for the plant.
25
Porsche Sales in Lausanne
•
Marketing, sales and after-sales retail operations of Porsche in Lausanne,
Switzerland
•
In Switzerland; an important market for Porsche, 1,924 units of Porsche cars sold in
2008 vs 157 in Turkey
•
Establishment of a new showroom in Lausanne will be one of Switzerland’s largest
Porsche outlet
•
Operations will start in 1H09
•
Estimated investment is US$18 mn
26
Agenda
•
Doğuş Group
•
Doğuş Otomotiv
•
Macroeconomic Outlook
•
Automotive Market
•
Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results
•
New Projects
•
Expectations
•
Appendix
27
Expectations
AUTO MARKET
2009E
2008
2007
300-350,000
516,395
618,770
DOAŞ Market Share
12.0%
10.6%
11.4%
DOD Used Car Sales
12,000
13,125
13,024
FINANCIALS (IFRS)
2009E
2008
2007
Revenues (US$mn)
1,150
1,658
1,979
Gross Margin
12.0-13.0%
13.6%
13.8%
Operating Profit Margin
2.75-3.25%
0.9%
3.6%
Average US$/TRY Rate
1.50
1.29
1.29
Total Market (PV,LCV,HCV)
28
Agenda
•
Doğuş Group
•
Doğuş Otomotiv
•
Macroeconomic Outlook
•
Automotive Market
•
Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results
•
New Projects
•
Expectations
•
Appendix
29
VDF is a hidden value...
2007
New contracts:
Credits Given:
Portfolio:
Market Share:
38,776 units
TRY 968 mn
98,432 units
14% among all financial institutions
2008
New contracts:
Credits Given:
Portfolio:
Market Share:
25,198 units (24% yoy decrease)
TRY 767 mn (21% yoy decrease)
81,141 units (18% yoy decrease)
11% among all financial institutions
Consumer Finance
30
Motor Vehicle Inspection Stations (MVIS)
TUVTURK – a cash cow business of DOAS, Akfen Holding and TÜV SÜD
Right to build & operate MVIS in Turkey for 20 years in exchange of US$552mn.
189 fixed and 38 mobile inspection stations, built until end-1Q09 with an investment of
US$200mn.
The operations in every region, except Istanbul, will be carried out by the business
associates (BA) for 20 years.
The BAs will share their revenues with the government: 1-3rd years: 30%; 4-10th years:
40% and 11-20th years: 50%
...and with TUVTURK consortium: 1-10th years 7% and 11-20th years: 20%
They will also pay one-time license fees to the consortium totalling US$750mn.
The MVIS business is expected to generate US$15bn revenues in 20 years with US$2.5bn
EBITDA.
31
DOD: Used Car Sales
Almost 100% of the second-hand vehicles sales market is non-organized.
The market is expected to grow exponentially in the coming years, due to increase in consumer
awareness about organized side and much more favorable tax rates compared to new cars.
DOD is the largest organized retailer of the used car business.
The only brand that provides guarantee for the second hand cars which increases the consumer
confidence.
DOD increased its sales volume by 1% YoY to 13,125 vehicles in 2008.
Expected sales volume for 2009 is 12,000 i.e. a 9% YoY decrease over 2008.
DOD Sales Performance
20.000
1%
-9%
16.000
68%
12.000
13.024
13.121
2007
2008
12.000
59%
7.760
8.000
4.881
4.000
0
2005
2006
2009E
32
DOAS Headline Figures - 2007
Vehicle Sales Volume
2006
2007
YoY ch.
Unit sales
76,902
70,808
-8%
2nd hand sales
7,760
13,024
68%
P&L (US$ mn)
2006
2007
YoY ch.
Revenues
1,766
1,979
12%
203
273
35%
11.5%
13.8%
41
68
2.3%
3.4%
49
82
2.8%
4.1%
15
50
0.9%
2.5%
Dividends
5
17
Yield
1.7%
5.5%
Gross Profit
Gross Margin
Operating Profit
Operating Margin
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
Net Profit
Net Margin
67%
67%
225%
240%
33
DOAS Headline Figures - 2007
BS (US$ mn)
2006
2007
YoY ch.
Total Assets
804
993
24%
Shareholders' Equity
340
464
36%
Capital Expenditures
16
88
444%
Net Cash (Debt)
41
(43)
-
Net Working Capital
99
63
-36%
Receivable Turnover
21
21
0%
Inventory Turnover
69
51
-26%
Payable Turnover
79
55
-31%
Turnovers (days)
34
Stock Performance
1.20
12.00
1.00
10.00
0.80
1.98
52 wk High (TRY) (10Apr08)
5.40
52 wk Low (TRY) (20Nov08)
1.40
% Price Change 1 Month Ago
17.2%
% Price Change 3 Months Ago
11.9%
% Price Change 6 Months Ago
-31.3%
% Price Change 1 Year Ago
-59.8%
8.00
0.60
6.00
0.40
4.00
0.20
2.00
XU-100 Relative
DOAS (TRY)
0.00
06/04
Closing Price (TRY) (31Mar09)
0.00
01/05
08/05
04/06
11/06
06/07
01/08
08/08
SHAREHOLDERS STRUCTURE
Mcap (TRYmn) (31Mar09)
218
Mcap (US$mn) (31Mar09)
131
03/09
% Share
Amount (TRY)
DOĞUŞ HOLDİNG A.Ş.
35.21%
38,730,609
DOĞUŞ ARAŞTIRMA GEL. VE MÜŞ. HİZM.A.Ş.
30.29%
33,319,043
0.00%
348
34.50%
37,950,000
100.00%
110,000,000
OTHER DOĞUŞ GROUP COMPANIES
PUBLICLY TRADED
TOTAL
35
Thank You..
Contact
Doğuş Otomotiv
Investor Relations Department
Tel: +90 262 676 90 58
Fax: +90 262 676 90 96
Address: Doğuş Otomotiv Servis ve Ticaret A.Ş. Atatürk Mahallesi,
Anadolu Caddesi, No:22, 41435 Şekerpınar, Çayırova/Kocaeli, TURKEY
E-mail: [email protected]
37
Disclaimer
Dogus Otomotiv Servis ve Ticaret A.S. (the “DOAS”) has prepared this
presentation documents (the “Document”) consisting of documents and
appendixes thereto for the sole purposes of providing information and
projections and statements relating to the DOAS (the “Information”). DOAS
cannot guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of such
information, and cannot be responsible for the results. The Information is
subject to change without any notice. Neither the Document nor the
Information can construe any investment advise, or an offer to buy or sell
DOAS shares. This Document and/or the Information cannot be copied,
disclosed or distributed to any person other than the person to whom the
Document and/or Information delivered or sent by DOAS or who required a
copy of the same from the DOAS. Any and all information contained in this
document are strictly confidential.
38