Agenda - Doğuş Otomotiv

Doğuş Otomotiv
January, 2010
Agenda
•
Doğuş Group
•
Doğuş Otomotiv
•
Macroeconomic Outlook
•
Automotive Market
•
Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results
•
New Projects
•
Expectations
•
Appendix
2
Group Structure
Financial
Services
Automotive
Construction
Media
Tourism &
Leisure
Real Estate
Energy
Corporate Social Responsibility
3
Agenda
•
Doğuş Group
•
Doğuş Otomotiv
•
Macroeconomic Outlook
•
Automotive Market
•
Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results
•
New Projects
•
Expectations
•
Appendix
4
Presence in Every Link of Automotive Value Chain
DOAS produces, finances, sells, rents, insures,
services, repairs and inspects
5
Widest Retail & Services Network in Turkey
Approx. 500 customer points, widest among the competitors
(*) DOAS brands, including VW, Audi, Porsche, Scania, Seat, Krone, VW Marine, Scania Marine, Skoda as of end-December 2009
6
Success Story of DOAS
Bugatti
representative
Partnership with LeasePlan in
fleet rental
Porsche Dealership in
Lausanne
Car park more than 700K units
Krone & Meiller Production
Agreements
TÜV
TURK
IPO
OTO-FIX
Doğuş Group
established
subsidiaries for
distributing VW, Audi
& Porsche
Seat & Skoda
contract signed
(Partnership
with Yūce Oto)
Lamborghini LOI
Krone contract
signed
Bentley LOI
JV in consumer
financing with
VW Financial
Services AG
Scania contract
signed
Meiller Distribution
Thermoking
Distribution
VW Marine
Engines
Used car
operations
established
Merger of automotive
companies under
DOAS
M/S:Market Share
M/S: 12.0%
M/S: 0.5%
M/S: 10.6%
M/S: 5.8%
1993 1994 1995 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000 2001 2002
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
After Dogus Otomotiv became the sole importer and distributor of VW brand vehicles in Turkey, VW7
brands’ market share increased from 0.5% in 1993 to 12% in 2005
Key Strengths of DOAS
Leader in import market in Turkey with 16% m/s among c. 30 pure importers
One-stop shopping concept showroom, after sales services, consumer financing,
insurance
Well-positioned multi-brand products 15 different brands
Creating its own brands DOD, Oto-fix
Youngest fleet in the market with new launches every year, has more than 75 models
Widespread network and customer base, widest network with c.500 customer points
Customer focus, close relations with customers result in loyalty to the brands
Well-equipped IT infrastructure
Advanced financial risk management systems daily monitoring of the FX position
Profit oriented growth strategy profitability always kept without losing market share
8
DOAS’ Position in the Market - 2009
LCV
PV
Volkswagen ranked 2nd in PC Market
Passat retains its 1st position in its
Segment.
VW LCV ranked 5th in the commercial vehicles
market, as 3rd among import brands
Transporter is the best selling combi vehicle
in its segment
VW PVs ranked 5th in the market
Luxury Segment
HCV
Scania ranked the best selling brand for the seventh
time in the 16 tons and above import heavy commercial
vehicle market
Krone is the best selling import trailer
with 12.0% m/s
8 Bentleys, 9 Lamborghinis sold in 2009
Audi is SUV premium segment leader.
Audi sold 6.260 units in 2009 (Highest sales ever).
Porsche is the best selling brand of luxury sport
segment
9
Recent Launches
Volkswagen PV
Volkswagen LCV
Audi
Porsche
Seat
Bentley
Lamborghini
Scania
Krone
Touran, Scirocco, New Polo,Touareg
New Transporter Caravelle (facelift)
Q7 PI, A5 Cabrio, A4 Allroad
Panamera,Cayenne Diesel, 911 GT2, Carrera(facelift), Boxster(facelift),
Leon(facelift),Altea XL,Exeo, Ibiza SC
Continental Flying Spur Speed,Continental GT Speed,Continental GTC
Speed, Continental Supersports
Gallardo LP 560-4, Murcielago LP 640,Murciélago LP 670-4 SuperVeloce
G series,EGR
Cooliner Duoplex
10
Agenda
•
Doğuş Group
•
Doğuş Otomotiv
•
Macroeconomic Outlook
•
Automotive Market
•
Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results
•
New Projects
•
Expectations
•
Appendix
11
Current Macroeconomic Outlook
Structural improvements in Turkish economy (social security reform, tax reform, banking sector
restructuring, independent central bank, increased transparency in fiscal accounts)
Tight fiscal policy (though relatively looser compared to past years)
Relations with IMF to continue
Ongoing disinflation efforts (Annual CPI at 6.53 % as of end – Dec ‘09)
Reforms on EU convergence
Net FDI inflow declines (During January-Sep 2009, FDI inflows decreased by 57% to US$ 5.1 billion
compared to the same period last year)
Global credit crunch
Shrinkage in major economies
Increasing risk aversion
12
Macroeconomic Indicators
YoY Inflation (%)
Source: TURKSTAT
Nominal Exchange Rates
Benchmark & O/N Interest Rates (%)
Source: CBT, Garanti Bank
Source: CBT, ISE
13
Macroeconomic Indicators
Foreign Trade Volume (US$bn)
FDI Inflows in OECD Countries (US$bn)
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
25
20
15
10
5
0
Slovak Rep.
Hungary
Czech
Republic
Poland
Turkey
Mexico
Source: OECD Trends and Recent Developments in FDI Report
Source: TURKSTAT
Auto Loan Rates (%)
Consumer Confidence Index
110,00
TRY
EURO
USD
100,00
4,25
3,75
90,00
3,25
2,75
2,25
1,75
1,14 70,00
1,25
0,84
0,67 60,00
Mar…
Jun-…
Sep…
Dec…
Mar…
Jun-…
Sep…
Dec…
Mar…
Jun-…
Sep…
Dec…
Mar…
Jun-…
Sep…
Dec…
Mar…
Jun-…
Sep…
Dec…
Mar…
Jun-…
Sep…
Dec…
Mar…
Jun-…
Sep…
Dec…
0,75
0,25
78,38
80,00
Source: VDF
Source: TURKSTAT
14
Agenda
•
Doğuş Group
•
Doğuş Otomotiv
•
Macroeconomic Outlook
•
Automotive Market
•
Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results
•
New Projects
•
Expectations
•
Appendix
15
Turkish Automotive Market Outlook
Huge upside potential in the domestic market...
Approx. 16mn more vehicles need to be sold in Turkey to reach the level of Bulgaria
Vehicle Ownership per 1,000 inhabitants (PV+LCV)
138
Turkey
361
Bulgaria
391
Poland
510
Greece
529
EU Average
575
France
576
UK
604
Germany
685
Italy
818
USA
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Source: OSD (2007)
16
Automotive Market
900
726
800
635
700
503
600
300
200
394
456
389
323
Russia Crisis
100
653
2000 – 2001
Economic Crisis
500
400
767
180
619
Effects of
Global Crisis
520
base case
645
600
553
Turbulance in
Global Markets
516
450
July 2007
Elections
172
500
540
worst case
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010E
2011E
2012E
2009 – At a glance
15
Automotive Market
2009 Market Review
14
Market Review
2008
2009
%20
%9
516K
564K
%-3
307K
369K
%-42
189K 184K
20K 12K
PV
2009
LCV
HCV
TOTAL
2008
18
Agenda
•
Doğuş Group
•
Doğuş Otomotiv
•
Macroeconomic Outlook
•
Automotive Market
•
Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results
•
New Projects
•
Expectations
•
Appendix
20
DOAS Headline Figures - I
Vehicle Sales Volume
9M’09
9M’08
YoY ch.
Unit sales
38.120
45.461
(16) %
2nd hand sales
7.673
11.016
(30)%
P&L (CMB, US$ mn)
9M’09
9M’08
YoY ch.
Revenues
1.061
1.422
(25)%
153
189
(19)%
Gross Margin
14.4%
13.3%
-
Operating Profit
49
27
80%
4.6%
1.9%
-
58
40
46%
5.5%
2.8%
-
27
(26)
203%
2,5%
(1.8%)
-
Gross Profit
Operating Margin
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
Net Profit
Net Margin
21
DOAS Headline Figures - II
BS (CMB, US$ mn)
31-Sept-2009
31-Dec-2008
Ch.
Total Assets
829
955
(13)%
Shareholders' Equity
357
232
54 %
Capital Expenditures
19
46
(58)%
(192)
(156)
(23)%
Receivable Turnover
29
18
61 %
Inventory Turnover
53
129
(58)%
Payable Turnover
62
146
(57)%
Net Cash (Debt)
Turnovers (days)
22
Agenda
•
Doğuş Group
•
Doğuş Otomotiv
•
Macroeconomic Outlook
•
Automotive Market
•
Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results
•
New Projects
•
Expectations
•
Appendix
23
Trailer Production with Krone
•
In 2003, Dogus Otomotiv has become the main exclusive importer and distributor of
Krone trailers in Turkey.
•
Dogus Otomotiv and Krone reached a new agreement in 2007 and formed a JV
company to produce trailers in Turkey.
•
In the newly established JV company Dogus Otomotiv holds 49% stake, while the
remaining 51% is owned by Krone.
•
Estimated capex is US$20 mn for 49% share.
•
Production plant will become operational in 2011 with an initial capacity of 5,000 units
which is planned to be increased to10,000 after the 1st year.
•
90% of production will be diverted to exports.
•
Krone is the leader of the import trailer market in Turkey with 45% market share (12%
in total trailer market, ranked 4th).
24
Tipper Production with Meiller
•
Dogus Otomotiv has become the main exclusive importer and distributor of Meiller
brand in Turkey in February 2007.
•
As per the Letter of Intent (LoI) signed in October 2007, Dogus Otomotiv and Meiller
formed a joint venture (JV) company.
•
The JV is manufacturing Meiller brand tippers and semi-trailer tippers in Turkey.
•
In the newly established JV company Dogus Otomotiv holds 49% stake, while the
remaining 51% is owned by Meiller.
•
The plant has become operational in 1Q08, with 3,000 units annual production
capacity.
•
Almost 80% of the production is diverted to exports.
•
Dogus Otomotiv and Meiller have invested a total EUR10mn for the plant.
25
Porsche Sales in Lausanne
•
In 2007, Dogus Otomotiv was granted by Porsche AG for the marketing, sales and
after-sales retail operations of Porsche brand in Lausanne, Switzerland.
•
In Switzerland; an important market for Porsche, 1,924 units of Porsche cars sold in
2008 vs 157 in Turkey.
•
Establishment of a new showroom in Lausanne will be one of Switzerland’s largest
Porsche outlets.
•
Operations have started in 2H09.
•
Estimated investment is US$18 mn.
26
Agenda
•
Doğuş Group
•
Doğuş Otomotiv
•
Macroeconomic Outlook
•
Automotive Market
•
Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results
•
New Projects
•
Expectations
•
Appendix
27
Expectations
AUTO MARKET
2009
2008
2007
Total Market (PV,LCV,HCV)
564 K
516,395
618,770
DOAŞ Market Share
9%
10.6%
11.4%
DOD Used Car Sales
10.661
13,122
13,024
FINANCIALS (IFRS)
2009E
2008
2007
Revenues (US$mn)
1,302
1,658
1,979
Gross Margin
14% -15%
13.6%
13.8%
Operating Profit Margin
3.5% - 4%
0.9%
3.6%
Average US$/TRY Rate
1.54
1.29
1.29
28
Agenda
•
Doğuş Group
•
Doğuş Otomotiv
•
Macroeconomic Outlook
•
Automotive Market
•
Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results
•
New Projects
•
Expectations
•
Appendix
29
VDF is a hidden value...
2009 (End of Nov)
New contracts: 17.618 units ( 25% yoy decrease)
Credits Given: TRY 540 mn (23% yoy decrease)
Portfolio:
63.622 units (24% yoy decrease)
Market Share: 11% among all financial institutions
Consumer Finance
2008
New contracts:
Credits Given:
Portfolio:
Market Share:
2007
New contracts:
Credits Given:
Portfolio:
Market Share:
25,198 units (24% yoy decrease)
TRY 767 mn (21% yoy decrease)
81,141 units (18% yoy decrease)
11% among all financial institutions
38,776 units
TRY 968 mn
98,432 units
14% among all financial institutions
30
Motor Vehicle Inspection Stations (MVIS)
TUVTURK – a cash cow business of DOAS, Bridgepoint and TÜV SÜD
TuvTurk consortium was granted by Turkish Privatization Administration the right to build &
operate MVISs in Turkey for 20 years in exchange of US$552mn.
189 fixed and 80 mobile inspection stations are fully operational as of end-1Q09, with an
investment of US$200mn.
The operations in every region, except Istanbul, are being carried out by the business
associates (BA) for 20 years in exchange of one-time license fees totalling US$750mn
collected by the TuvTurk consortium.
The BAs will share their revenues with the government: 1-3rd years: 30%; 4-10th years: 40% and
11-20th years: 50%
...and with TUVTURK consortium: 1-10th years 7% and 11-20th years: 20%
The MVIS business is expected to generate US$15bn revenues in 20 years with US$2.5bn
EBITDA.
31
DOD: Used Car Sales
Almost 100% of the second-hand vehicles sales market is non-organized.
The market is expected to grow exponentially in the coming years, due to increase in consumer
awareness about organized side and much more favorable tax rates compared to new cars.
DOD is the largest organized retailer of the used car business.
The only brand that provides guarantee for the second hand cars which increases the consumer
confidence.
DOD increased its sales volume by 1% YoY to 13,122 vehicles in 2008.
Expected sales volume for 2009 is 13,000 i.e. mere 1% YoY decrease over 2008.
DOD Sales Performance
20,000
1%
-1%
16,000
68%
12,000
13,024
13,122
13,000
2007
2008
2009E
59%
7,760
8,000
4,881
4,000
0
2005
2006
32
DOAS Headline Figures - 2008
Vehicle Sales Volume
2008
2007
YoY ch.
Unit sales
55,307
71,690
(23)%
2nd hand sales
13,125
13,024
1%
P&L (IFRS, US$ mn)
2008
2007
YoY ch.
Revenues
1,658
1,979
(16)%
225
273
(18)%
13.6%
13.8%
-
14.9
71.2
(79)%
0.9%
3.6%
-
29.7
85.3
(65)%
1.8%
4.3%
-
(87)
49.4
(276)%
(-5.2%)
2.5%
-
Gross Profit
Gross Margin
Operating Profit
Operating Margin
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
Net Profit
Net Margin
33
DOAS Headline Figures - 2008
BS (IFRS, US$ mn)
31-Dec-2008
31-Dec-2007
Ch.
Total Assets
955
996
(4)%
Shareholders' Equity
232
467
(50)%
Capital Expenditures
46
88
(48)%
(156)
(113)
(38)%
Receivable Turnover
18
21
(14)%
Inventory Turnover
129
51
153%
Payable Turnover
146
55
165%
Net Cash (Debt)
Turnovers (days)
34
Stock Performance
1,20
12,00
1,00
10,00
0,80
8,00
0,60
6,00
0,40
4,00
0,20
2,00
IMKB-100 Relative
DOAS (TL)
0,00
Closing Price (TRY) (31Dec09)
4,84
52 wk High (TRY) (05 Jan 09)
5,80
52 wk Low (TRY) (09 March 09)
1.65
% Price Change 1 Month Ago
5,40 %
% Price Change 3 Months Ago
7,60 %
% Price Change 6 Months Ago
94,60 %
% Price Change 1 Year Ago
173,9%
Ave. Trading Volume (US$mn)
2.3
Mcap (US$mn) (31Dec09)
358
0,00
SHAREHOLDERS STRUCTURE
% Share
Amount (TRY)
DOĞUŞ HOLDİNG A.Ş.
35.21%
38,730,609
DOĞUŞ ARAŞTIRMA GEL. VE MÜŞ. HİZM.A.Ş.
30.29%
33,319,043
0.00%
348
34.50%
37,950,000
100.00%
110,000,000
OTHER DOĞUŞ GROUP COMPANIES
PUBLICLY TRADED
TOTAL
35
Thank You..
Contact
Doğuş Otomotiv
Investor Relations
Tel: +90 (0) 262 676 90 58
Fax: +90 (0) 262 676 90 96
Address: Doğuş Otomotiv Servis ve Ticaret A.Ş. Atatürk Mahallesi,
Anadolu Caddesi, No:22, 41490 Şekerpınar, Çayırova/Kocaeli, TURKEY
E-mail: [email protected]
37
Disclaimer
Dogus Otomotiv Servis ve Ticaret A.S. (the “DOAS”) has prepared this
presentation documents (the “Document”) consisting of documents and
appendixes thereto for the sole purposes of providing information and
projections and statements relating to the DOAS (the “Information”). DOAS
cannot guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of such
information, and cannot be responsible for the results. The Information is
subject to change without any notice. Neither the Document nor the
Information can construe any investment advise, or an offer to buy or sell
DOAS shares. This Document and/or the Information cannot be copied,
disclosed or distributed to any person other than the person to whom the
Document and/or Information delivered or sent by DOAS or who required a
copy of the same from the DOAS. Any and all information contained in this
document are strictly confidential.
38